🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

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My 2024 weekly results:
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Week 01:    1 - 0
Week 02:    3 - 1    (Loser: -115)
Week 03:    5 - 2    (Losers: -110, *-175)
Week 04:    6 - 2    (Losers: -250, -180)
Week 05:    5 - 2    (Losers: *-230, -175)
Week 06:    6 - 0
Week 07:    8 - 4    (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210)
Week 08:    5 - 2    (Losers: -120, -125)
Week 09:    9 - 8   (Losers: -105; +1.5-120; +17.5-250; +3-142; +3.5-150; -150; +3.5-180; -105)
Week 10:    6 - 4    (Losers: -4 140; +120; +8 -128; -127)
Week 11:  16 - 6    (Losers: -150; -6.5 -145; -287; -4 -152; -150; -2.5 -150)
Week 12:    8 - 1    (Loser: -7.5 -125)
Week 13:    7 - 4    (Losers: -118; -150; -130; +4.5 -145)
Week 14:    5 - 1    (Loser: +150 hedge bet)
Week 15:    5 - 1    (Loser: -125 hedge bet) 

Week 16:    3 - 1    (Loser: +8.5 -152)

Week 17:    2 - 2  ...so far, RAMS BB pending

YTD:  100 - 41     [31 - 10  *Best Bets! ]

                                                                    HOT STREAK warning for regression still in effect

Yuck......two possessions and my RAMS go nowhere.... but second time they get a great punt....

Now watch the CARDS pull off some lucky escape........

CARDS will flip the field now....

Shank punt...No score mid 2Q; AZ ball own end...LIVE BET: AZ 1st Half, +0.5 -138

BIG FAT LOSER!  

Just one good drive and RAMS are in danger of stumbling back into an even game once again....Stafford having a poor game.....this may not end well for the good guys....

My RAMS 10 pt lead just evaporated....

Kudos to CARDS for good offensive play despite losing CONNER!

But THAT is aided by the RAMS offensive miscues - particularly STAFFORD obviously having a bad day missing his targets.

Rams got the INT ....BUT.... CARDS have the 2 min plus 3 TO so unless the RAMS actually get a sustained time-consuming drive (unlikely!!!) the CARDS *WILL* get the ball back and probably with 2 mins or so and playing all 4 downs.

....just like I figured...... STAFFORD having a bad day, and that caused a 3 and out....CARDS in great position to steal this one in the final minute, because odds are the RAMS D does NOT stop them a second consecutive time.... 

Rams ML 

Good for you, Fubah. I can't take -272 ML, but hey you know how to win. 

Rams will clinch NFC West Champion tomorrow, if three out of these five teams win tomorrow: Bills, Vikings, Commanders, Browns and 49ers. 

Quote Originally Posted by Europa:

Rams ML  Good for you, Fubah. I can't take -272 ML, but hey you know how to win.

@Europa

 Oh thank you, pal!       I feel relieved.... It's been a struggle just to stay awake after my sleepness night last night.

BoL with your bets Sunday!

No NFL regular season actions for me till postseason but i did place some plays on the NCAAF quarter finals in next week. 

Try that anti cramps and spasms foam that works for me, Fubah. 

Yeah!  I'll pick it up in the pharmacy section Monday then keep it handy by my bedside. Thanks!

Recap Saturday:

W  pregame:  CHARGERS -3 -195
W  pregame:  LA RAMS -272  BB pinnacle
 L  No score mid 2Q; AZ ball own end...LIVE BET: AZ 1st Half, +0.5 -138
W  7 - 0 late 1h... I will double down on RAMS - 320 *BB

@fubah2

That muscle cramps foam scores very high ranking in the Amazon customer reviews, such as sleep quality and effectiveness.  

@Europa

 Thanks!

Thanks for sharing your picks.

Are you still high on your teaser posted 4 days ago. I’m going to tail it if your opinion hasn’t changed.

Bucs -2

Colts -.5

Thanks and BOL

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My 2024 weekly results:
----------------------------

Week 01:    1 - 0
Week 02:    3 - 1    (Loser: -115)
Week 03:    5 - 2    (Losers: -110, *-175)
Week 04:    6 - 2    (Losers: -250, -180)
Week 05:    5 - 2    (Losers: *-230, -175)
Week 06:    6 - 0
Week 07:    8 - 4    (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210)
Week 08:    5 - 2    (Losers: -120, -125)
Week 09:    9 - 8   (Losers: -105; +1.5-120; +17.5-250; +3-142; +3.5-150; -150; +3.5-180; -105)
Week 10:    6 - 4    (Losers: -4 140; +120; +8 -128; -127)
Week 11:  16 - 6    (Losers: -150; -6.5 -145; -287; -4 -152; -150; -2.5 -150)
Week 12:    8 - 1    (Loser: -7.5 -125)
Week 13:    7 - 4    (Losers: -118; -150; -130; +4.5 -145)
Week 14:    5 - 1    (Loser: +150 hedge bet)
Week 15:    5 - 1    (Loser: -125 hedge bet) 

Week 16:    3 - 1    (Loser: +8.5 -152)

Week 17:    4 - 3  ...so far

YTD:  102 - 42     [33 - 10  *Best Bets! ]

                                                                       HOT STREAK warning for regression still in effect

All the NYG gotta do is LOSE to the COLTS then again next week at PHILLY - to guarantee themselves the prized #1 draft pick! and subsequent top of the order in every round!  The "potential benefits" of losing now (in this unique position) outweigh the "potential benefits" that may or may not come from going for a meaning less win...

Two other things are:

1/ while many of the players or perhaps most if not all of them will still try their very best on every play - and WILL NOT "tank" either consciously or unconsciously - direction from management to the coaches may request (demand??) risky 4th down gambles when they shouldn't; run the ball when they are in a passing situation; send blitzes in high risk situations which could easily backfire in a score against; cause penalties against themselves, such as time clock violations due to late substitutions;  other questionable play-calling;  wasting timeouts to put themselves at a significant disadvantage, etc, etc, and all that is REGARDLESS how hard their players are giving their everything trying to win and save some pride......Clever coaching maneuvering (ordered by management who's focus is on rebuilding what is obviously a BAD team!) can create  a situation where a loss is all but inevitable - yet easily defended in slick post-game interviews!

2/  Vastly reduced motivation, in some or many players, who are mentally exhausted and/or depressed from their inability to win and enjoy a good season.... ie, a self-fulfilling prophecy of "were going to lose once again" and "lets just get this damn season over with and start over next summer."  Unlikely this is an issue in mid-season of course when there is still a possibility for a playoff, but by the end of the season we can bet it plays a part if not a very large part in some if not all....

NOT saying this *WILL* happen .....but the rewards of high draft order IN EVERY ROUND may for some teams OUTWWEIGH a win.  Then again they are already awful for a reason....

[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2]

    Loss is MORE!

It's the way the NFL rewards failure!  Losing can be beneficial!

And we as handicappers MUST keep this in mind . . .

NYG have the easiest path to gain the highest draft order in every round!

**Interesting note: The awful Titans face the awful Jags. But unfortunately only one of them can gain the benefit of a LOSS! LOL

2 - 13  NYG

3 - 12  Raiders
3 - 12  Titans
3 - 12  Jags
3 - 12  Tom Brady's old team
3 - 12  Charlie Browns