🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

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My 2024 weekly results:
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Week 01:    1 - 0
Week 02:    3 - 1    (Loser: -115)
Week 03:    5 - 2    (Losers: -110, *-175)
Week 04:    6 - 2    (Losers: -250, -180)
Week 05:    5 - 2    (Losers: *-230, -175)
Week 06:    6 - 0
Week 07:    8 - 4    (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210)
Week 08:    5 - 2    (Losers: -120, -125)
Week 09:    9 - 8   (Losers: -105; +1.5-120; +17.5-250; +3-142; +3.5-150; -150; +3.5-180; -105)
Week 10:    6 - 4    (Losers: -4 140; +120; +8 -128; -127)
Week 11:   16 - 6   (Losers: -150; -6.5 -145; -287; -4 -152; -150; -2.5 -150)
Week 12:    8 - 1    (Loser: -7.5 -125)
Week 13:    7 - 4    (Losers: -118; -150; -130; +4.5 -145)
Week 14:    4 - 1    (Loser: +150 hedge bet)
Week 15:

YTD:  89 - 37     [26 - 8 *Best Bets!! ]

@fubah2

 Congrats to all the winners have a great holiday and stay safe

@fubah2

 Good job!!!

i got +8900-5225= (+3675)   but i did not count week 10 1st loser ( could not tell if + or -)  regardless it is a nice year for you  (of course those numbers are at 1x)  thanks for posting but am bit slow and find it hard to keep up with all the reading .... but you do well and i thank you for it .... good luck rest the year  

MNF: 

Game just underway, no score, Cinci punts...LIVE BET: Dallas +10.5 -300 altline BB

@PUSSYGALORE333

  Hello PG!  Hope you're enjoying the season! 

Ooops! Yep, that Week 10 loser was Ravens -4 -140 ... Thanks!   I'll correct that typo in my Weekly chart after tonight's result to finish Week 14.

With 89 wins (no plus money and only scoring every win for +1.0 unit) the +8900 is accurate.

But upon further review, the sum of all my losses is actually worse than your calculations (-5225 plus the missing -140) and I get -5565  ...prior to MNF...although this looks like it may fall another -300 the way the Cowgirls allow Burrow to pass easily

So (+8900)  vs  (-5565)  ...with MNF -300 pending

My  26 - 8  *Best Bets checks out

WINNER!   

Week 14 results...

W   PACKERS +4 -132
W   Late 1Q, Miami lead 6 - 3..driving again...LIVE BET: Dolphins -360 *BB
 L    LIVE hedge BET: Jets +150
W   Dolphins have the momentum and the ball in OT! LIVE BET: Dolphins -200
W   Late 2Q leading 17 - 14, driving! OK.....RAMS +4.5 -225  *BB 
W   no score early 1Q, Cinci punts...LIVE BET: Dallas +10.5 -300  *BB

= 5 - 1      (3 - 0  *Best Bets)

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My 2024 weekly results:
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Week 01:    1 - 0
Week 02:    3 - 1    (Loser: -115)
Week 03:    5 - 2    (Losers: -110, *-175)
Week 04:    6 - 2    (Losers: -250, -180)
Week 05:    5 - 2    (Losers: *-230, -175)
Week 06:    6 - 0
Week 07:    8 - 4    (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210)
Week 08:    5 - 2    (Losers: -120, -125)
Week 09:    9 - 8   (Losers: -105; +1.5-120; +17.5-250; +3-142; +3.5-150; -150; +3.5-180; -105)
Week 10:    6 - 4    (Losers: -4 140; +120; +8 -128; -127)
Week 11:   16 - 6   (Losers: -150; -6.5 -145; -287; -4 -152; -150; -2.5 -150)
Week 12:    8 - 1    (Loser: -7.5 -125)
Week 13:    7 - 4    (Losers: -118; -150; -130; +4.5 -145)
Week 14:    5 - 1    (Loser: +150 hedge bet)
Week 15:

YTD:  90 - 37     [27 - 8 *Best Bets!! ]

  When I look only at upcoming games where one team lines up to hold MASSIVE edges over their significantly weaker opponent, the past 4 weeks my handicapping sheets revealed these results:

Teams I circled:

Week 11:   7 - 1 su
Week 12:   6 - 3 su
Week 13: 10 - 1 su
Week 14:   7 - 1 su >>>>> = 30 - 6 su    (only 18 - 16 - 2 ats)

I subsequently used those indicators to make MOST of my su bet selections.
My real bets went 36 - 12 in this 4 week time frame, whereby 5 of those 12 losses were "in-game hedge bets" and one more was for an in-game shot at a nice middle (but barely missed)  IOW, my pre-game handicapped selections ultimately hit at an 85% rate (36 - 6) utilizing those stats!
Had I bet ATS, it would have been a wash...

This week it is looking like I'll have as many as 9 teams circled which hold MASSIVE edges - to win SU - over their significantly weaker opponent.

I DO NOT evaluate based on team win/loss record, nor the Vegas odds!

@fubah2

 THANKS 

TY, TDHCentral and BoL with your bets this week!

@trust-me

 TY sir! More to come.   BoL with your bets this week!! 

  Lose is MORE!!!

Ranking the 2025 Draft Derby "race for the bottom":

Which teams are going to "accidentally" light up the board with low percentage plays, untimely blitzes, foolish 4th down gambles, dropped passes, fumbles, and missed tackles?

Giants have the least stressful path to "accidentally"lose their 4 remaining games to claim the first draft pick! - since they have no beatable opps and there would be no shame to losing on homefield to Ravens or even Colts.

**Interesting note: The awful Jets face the awful Jags. But unfortunately only one of them can gain the benefit of a LOSS! LOL

2 - 11  NYG (Balt, @ATLA, Indy, @PHIL)
2 - 11  Raiders (have 3 HOME games to try and lose in front of their fans!)

3 - 10  **Aaron Rodgers
3 - 10  **Jags (with new QB, Mac Jones!)
3 - 10  Tom Brady's old team
3 - 10  Charlie Browns
3 - 10  Titans
3 - 10  Carolina

Ranking the WORST point differential teams:
(per game mean avg)

-11.9 Panthers

-9.6  Raiders

-8.8  Titans
-8.2  JAGS
-7.9  Charlie Browns
-7.6  NYG
-7.5  Cowgirls

@fubah2

 good stuff !  

Ranking the BEST point differential teams!
(mean avg per game )

+14.0 Jared Goff & gang!!

+9.9 Buffy!

+8.3 Eagles

+7.6 Vikings

+6.5 Russell Wilson
+6.2 Commandos

GL this week 

wow   the chargers fell out pretty fast  

Yeah. They were avg 27 PPG for a long 5 game stretch before the 2 recent road games where they scored just 17 each.

But with 2 HOME games due up next followed by 2 roadies against BAD opponents, I expect their numbers will climb again!

@fubah2

 anything for tnf ?   

@KellyM_1964

 Don't ask questions I'm sure he will post sir when he's ready nothing better then trolls. Waiting like they need his play for 1 he is doing a great service for all of us who have token this man knowledge base and then hopefully took away some knowledge along the way and should by now in your own journey have to find a plan that suits you. 

G.L Who you Leaning?

Hi Fubah , love the info and I hope you keep winning buddy. You know I love my teasers , I’m looking pretty good this week as I’m only up 51 and so far have 230 in pending teasers off winners so I feel good about - Chargers +7, +10 and Under 57 , Steelers +15.5 , KC Pk ML parlay , +6 , and Under add 10 ( forgot the number ). Tonight I bet 9ers/Rams Under 24 First Half and 9ers + 8 . Tough game for sure . Oh forgot one of my anchors Ravens -2 and Ravens -3 Giants +28  

[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2] YTD:  90 - 37     [27 - 8 *Best Bets!! ]