🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

MNF:

mid 1Q  no score, KC ball, LIVE BET: CHIEFS -400 *BB

Pressure frequently but not getting there!

Joe Buck is correct....Bucs able to get pressure w/o blitzing!

Meanwhile Chiefs blitz but can't get there! 

All this spells trouble for the undefeated homies facing a team w/o their top 3 receivers.

Mid 2Q  TB lead 7 - 3, KC ball driving over midfield...LIVE BET #2: CHIEFS -210

Tampa defender leaves field injured

INJURIES lead to firing

The New Orleans Saints have fired coach Dennis Allen after losing their seventh straight game Sunday, the team announced Monday.

Special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi was named the interim coach, and he addressed the media by noting it was "a tough day," citing Allen as a close friend.

He's back in.

SHITE!   HUGE LUCKY BREAK #2 goes to Tamapa with a fumble when KC was heading for another score to close out the 1H.

Instead, Tampa may score, from midfield...

HT shtats:   10 - 7 goodguys

*Even FULL possessions

1st downs: KC 12 - 6
Net yards: KC 175 - 115
OFF YPP:   KC 4.7 - TB 5.0
Turnovers: Tampa gains benefit of KC fumble to kill scoring drive
48+yd drives: 1 - 1
Penalty yds: negligible

TAMPA gets the ball to start 2H

Early 3Q TB scored, 14 - 10.....Tampa ball again....LIVE hedge bet #1: TB +3.5 -180

Chiefs in big trouble tonight....unphcking believable!!

And now Mahomes is limping.....

Best Bet WINNER!

9 - 8 this REGRESSION week     (winning all 4 *Best Bets)

Stunning!

The Bears-Cardinals game attracted the most lopsided betting action of any afternoon game at ESPN BET.

Approximately 83.7% of the money wagered was on the underdog Bears plus the points. The line closed at Bears +2.

The Cardinals won 29-9.

BUMMER!

Bengals' Zack Moss to IR with neck injury, likely out for season

WEEK 09 recap (regression week as advertised!)

W  JETS -1.5 -120 @pinnacle                                                          *BB
L   Mike Williams over 1.5 receptions -105 @pinnacle
W  Devonte Adams over 4.5 receptions -160 @BC
L   LIVE hedge BET: Houston +1.5 -120...Mid 2Q, no scores yet
W  Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290     *BB
W  Mid 1Q, FALCONS scored to make 7 - 3...LIVE BET: K'Boys +7.5 -188 *BB
W  Mid 1H 3 - 3...Miami driving deep..LIVE BET: highest scoring half? 2ndH -334
L   Mid 2Q...Ravens lead 10 - 0...Denver driving...LIVE BET: Broncos +17.5 -250
L   daaaaaaaaBEARS +3 -142 pinnacle
L   PACKERS +3.5 -150 pinnacle
W  2Q under 6 mins left in Seattle....Rams moving....LIVE BET: RAMS -180
L   I am hedging out.....LIVE BET: SEAHAWKS -150
W  Early 1stQ after COLTS fumble....LIVE BET: Vikes -270
W  mid 1Q no score, KC ball, LIVE BET: CHIEFS -400                          *BB
W  Mid 2Q TB lead 7 - 3, KC ball driving...LIVE BET #2: CHIEFS -210
L   Early 3Q TB scored, 14 - 10....LIVE hedge bet #1: TB +3.5 -180
L   LIVE hedge BET #2: Tampa -105

= 9 - 8  last week  (minor juice losses)

but 4 - 0 with my *Best Bets so I actually came out a little ahead

Hopefully THAT was my regression.  So I am returning to my usual full bet sizes again.

I should have a bet shortly for tonight...

BoL tonight fellas!

YIKES!!!

Buffy receiving corps in virtual triage!

Hollins, Samuel, Cooper, and Coleman with injuries!

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GL this week 

TNF

OK...here's just a portion of my take on tonight's game....

I include the teams' win/loss but it can have a deceptive look so I put very little value on it particularly when it comes to spread bets.  I prefer to look at their net point differential >>> calibre of teams they played to achieve that differential >>> and WHERE the games were played

Let's look:

CINCI: 

- have played one EXTRA HOME GAME (advantage!)

- faced net weak opps!

- with those advantages they only attained a net +9 pt differential

BALT: 

- played one extra ROAD game (DISadvantage!);

- faced net mediocre teams (ie, tougher sched than Bengals!!)

- despite the tougher sched & opps they achieved +64 net pts diff.

* The magnitude of difference is virtually the same when we look specifically at Bengals road performances compared to RAVENS home performances.

* Ravens only edged Bengals on the road, but Ravens are stronger on homefield.

* Bengals have played games against GOOD teams 4 times, losing all 4 and 3 were on homefield Tonight they face their 5th GOOD team and it's on the road...

* Neither team is on a hot streak that would cause concern (regression)

* Bengals coming off a 17 pt win vs weakass Raiders

* Ravens coming off a convincing 31 pt win vs a decent DENVER team!

All indications are the Ravens are  virtually HEALTHY!

But Bengals could be missing a DT, OT, WR, and S

RAVENS -4 -140  alt-line, pinnacle    *BB

Injuries/flukes/unexpected poor play and I may hedge bet LIVE....

injuries week 10

bengals
B. Hill DT Questionable - Rib Nov 05, '24

Limited Participation In Practice

C. Jones WR Doubtful - Groin Nov 05, '24
Did Not Participate In Practice

G. Stone SAF Injured - Shin Nov 05, '24
Limited Participation In Practice

O. Brown OT Questionable - Knee Nov 05, '24
Limited Participation In Practice

T. Higgins WR Doubtful - Quadricep Nov 05, '24
Did Not Participate In Practice

E. All TE Injured - Knee Nov 04, '24
Did Not Participate In Practice

Z. Moss RB Injured - Neck Nov 04, '24
Did Not Participate In Practice

Ravens
I. Likely TE Out - Hamstring Nov 05, '24
Did Not Participate In Practice

J. Armour-Davis CB Doubtful - Knee Nov 05, '24
Did Not Participate In Practice

B. Urban DE Out - Concussion Nov 05, '24
Did Not Participate In Practice

L. Jackson QB Injured - Knee Nov 05, '24
Full Participation In Practice -----beware

K. Mitchell RB Questionable - Knee Nov 05, '24
Limited Participation In Practice

R. Ali RB Questionable - Ankle Nov 05, '24
Full Participation In Practice

YIKES!   Bengals look good and Ravens look bad...7 - 0 ...although Ravens only had ONE possession so far...so let's see how they perform when they next get the ball...

BUT, bold prediction, if Bengals get up 14 pts at any point, they will win and my regression continues, likely through the NFL weekend....

Also, in addition to LAMAR scrambling for maybe 30+ tonight, I expect the RAVENS to throw often to ANDRREWS and FLOWERS but also get their new WR involved for a few! I think the Bengals will stack it for HENRY though...