Posted:
#5201
@Fuse 
@Macwestie1
THANK YOU, fellas! BoL with your bets today! 
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🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets
Posted:
#5202
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
2024
That said I have over a dozen games I have circled for bets...
2024
Week 01: 1 - 0
Week 02: 3 - 1 (Losers: -115)
Week 03: 5 - 2 (Losers: -110, *-175)
Week 04: 6 - 2 (Losers: -250, -180)
Week 05: 5 - 2 (Losers: *-230, -175)
Week 06: 6 - 0
Week 07: 8 - 4 (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210)
Week 08: 5 - 2 (Losers: -120, -125)
= 39 - 13 
BTW, these results are fine and so too are any others with a HIGH percentage win rate.... BUT there's just no way they can be sustained at or near those levels! 
Must NOT think that way!
Regression to the mean *will* occur with all such stats, for EVERYBODY who attains them.
They always do!
EXPECT my win rate to fall over the coming weeks and it may start this week! There's just no way to accurately predict it other than regression (even if slight) is a foregone conclusion, and possibly imminent.
One must be realistic. And cautious!
The solution to looming regression is not to stop, or limit betting choices, but rather to continue handicapping the same way and betting the picks your handicapping indicates - BUT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE YOUR BET "size"
It is for this reason I am reducing my $$$$ bet sizes appropriately until further notice.
1
Posted:
#5204
WARNING: REGRESSION looming.... tailing or fading NOT recommended
39 - 13 entering this week... but 2 - 2 losers from Thursday
ALL my bets will be significantly reduced $$$ amounts to mitigate losses!
Leaning for possible/likely in-game bets:
K'Boys
Bungles
Buffy
Chargers
Commandos
Broncos **
Saints
Rams
Colts
Cards
Jags
Lions
0
Posted:
#5205
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: 2024 Week 01: 1 - 0Week 02: 3 - 1 (Losers: -115)Week 03: 5 - 2 (Losers: -110, *-175)Week 04: 6 - 2 (Losers: -250, -180)Week 05: 5 - 2 (Losers: *-230, -175)Week 06: 6 - 0Week 07: 8 - 4 (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210) Week 08: 5 - 2 (Losers: -120, -125) = 39 - 13 BTW, these results are fine and so too are any others with a HIGH percentage win rate.... BUT there's just no way they can be sustained at or near those levels! Must NOT think that way! Regression to the mean *will* occur with all such stats, for EVERYBODY who attains them. They always do! EXPECT my win rate to fall over the coming weeks and it may start this week! There's just no way to accurately predict it other than regression (even if slight) is a foregone conclusion, and possibly imminent. One must be realistic. And cautious! The solution to looming regression is not to stop, or limit betting choices, but rather to continue handicapping the same way and betting the picks your handicapping indicates - BUT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE YOUR BET "size" It is for this reason I am reducing my $$$$ bet sizes appropriately until further notice.
39 wins at 100 +3900 (losers with juice looks -2066) +1834 net so far ? (but that is figured all wins were 100 and just added up the loss on juicers at 1x as well) profit season is always nice GOOD LUCK TODAY Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: 2024 Week 01: 1 - 0Week 02: 3 - 1 (Losers: -115)Week 03: 5 - 2 (Losers: -110, *-175)Week 04: 6 - 2 (Losers: -250, -180)Week 05: 5 - 2 (Losers: *-230, -175)Week 06: 6 - 0Week 07: 8 - 4 (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210) Week 08: 5 - 2 (Losers: -120, -125) = 39 - 13 BTW, these results are fine and so too are any others with a HIGH percentage win rate.... BUT there's just no way they can be sustained at or near those levels! Must NOT think that way! Regression to the mean *will* occur with all such stats, for EVERYBODY who attains them. They always do! EXPECT my win rate to fall over the coming weeks and it may start this week! There's just no way to accurately predict it other than regression (even if slight) is a foregone conclusion, and possibly imminent. One must be realistic. And cautious! The solution to looming regression is not to stop, or limit betting choices, but rather to continue handicapping the same way and betting the picks your handicapping indicates - BUT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE YOUR BET "size" It is for this reason I am reducing my $$$$ bet sizes appropriately until further notice.
thanks for all the work you share
goldfinger 1964
0
Posted:
#5206
Quote Originally Posted by PUSSYGALORE333:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
39 - 13
BTW, these results are fine and so too are any others with a HIGH percentage win rate.... BUT there's just no way they can be sustained at or near those levels! Must NOT think that way! Regression to the mean *will* occur with all such stats, for EVERYBODY who attains them. They always do! EXPECT my win rate to fall over the coming weeks and it may start this week! There's just no way to accurately predict it other than regression (even if slight) is a foregone conclusion, and possibly imminent. One must be realistic. And cautious!
39 wins at 100 +3900 (losers with juice looks -2066) +1834 net so far ? (but that is figured all wins were 100 and just added up the loss on juicers at 1x as well) profit season is always nice GOOD LUCK TODAY thanks for all the work you share
Yes, that is accurate ....and I will add the 2 - 2 -0.25u from Thursday after I recap the whole weekend along with some itemized stats on my results particularly with regard to larger "chalk" bets (currently 13 - 0 )
BoL with your bets today!
0
Posted:
#5215
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Mid 1Q, FALCONS just scored to make 7 - 3....LIVE BET: K'Boys +7.5 -188 *BB Yuck! 14 -3 Falcons as Dallas looks sad again
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Mid 1Q, FALCONS just scored to make 7 - 3....LIVE BET: K'Boys +7.5 -188 *BB Yuck! 14 -3 Falcons as Dallas looks sad again
OK....that's better... my K'Boys score with 4 mins left....10 - 14
I figure they have a 40% -45% chance of a road upset...
0
Posted:
#5216
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
WARNING: REGRESSION looming.... tailing or fading NOT recommended
WARNING: REGRESSION looming.... tailing or fading NOT recommended
39 - 13 entering this week... but 2 - 2 losers from Thursday
ALL my bets will be significantly reduced $$$ amounts to mitigate losses!
Leaning for possible/likely in-game bets:
K'Boys
Bungles
Buffy
Chargers
Commandos
Broncos **
Saints
Rams
Colts
Cards
Jags
Lions
Well sh*t ....I wanted Saints, Commandos and Chargers (above) but they all raced out to leads and the lines went out of my range....but the ones I did grab - K'Boys and Bills - of course are losing! 
0
Posted:
#5217
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: WARNING: REGRESSION looming.... tailing or fading NOT recommended 39 - 13 entering this week... but 2 - 2 losers from Thursday ALL my bets will be significantly reduced $$$ amounts to mitigate losses! Leaning for possible/likely in-game bets:K'BoysBunglesBuffyChargers CommandosBroncos **SaintsRamsColtsCardsJagsLions Well sh*t ....I wanted Saints, Commandos and Chargers (above) but they all raced out to leads and the lines went out of my range....but the ones I did grab - K'Boys and Bills - of course are losing!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: WARNING: REGRESSION looming.... tailing or fading NOT recommended 39 - 13 entering this week... but 2 - 2 losers from Thursday ALL my bets will be significantly reduced $$$ amounts to mitigate losses! Leaning for possible/likely in-game bets:K'BoysBunglesBuffyChargers CommandosBroncos **SaintsRamsColtsCardsJagsLions Well sh*t ....I wanted Saints, Commandos and Chargers (above) but they all raced out to leads and the lines went out of my range....but the ones I did grab - K'Boys and Bills - of course are losing!
And now my Broncos are down 14 on a fluke play just before HT
0
Posted:
#5218
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290 *BB
Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290 *BB
Bills suffered a horrific bad break with a fluky INT when driving to the goalline or this game would be totally different.....instead they are down 6 - 10 and now I need Bills to score at least 2 TDs in the 2H or I am sunk on REGRESSION SUNDAY
....as anticipated.... 
0
Posted:
#5219
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290 *BB Bills suffered a horrific bad break with a fluky INT when driving to the goalline or this game would be totally different.....instead they are down 6 - 10 and now I need Bills to score at least 2 TDs in the 2H or I am sunk on REGRESSION SUNDAY ....as anticipated....
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290 *BB Bills suffered a horrific bad break with a fluky INT when driving to the goalline or this game would be totally different.....instead they are down 6 - 10 and now I need Bills to score at least 2 TDs in the 2H or I am sunk on REGRESSION SUNDAY ....as anticipated....
3Q Miami starts a drive and I may look for a hedge bet here pretty soon if they can move into scoring position
0
Posted:
#5220
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290 *BB Bills suffered a horrific bad break with a fluky INT when driving to the goalline or this game would be totally different.....instead they are down 6 - 10 and now I need Bills to score at least 2 TDs in the 2H or I am sunk on REGRESSION SUNDAY ....as anticipated.... 3Q Miami starts a drive and I may look for a hedge bet here pretty soon if they can move into scoring position
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290 *BB Bills suffered a horrific bad break with a fluky INT when driving to the goalline or this game would be totally different.....instead they are down 6 - 10 and now I need Bills to score at least 2 TDs in the 2H or I am sunk on REGRESSION SUNDAY ....as anticipated.... 3Q Miami starts a drive and I may look for a hedge bet here pretty soon if they can move into scoring position
Bills recover fumble!! LUCKY BREAKS now almost even imo....
0
Posted:
#5224
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290 *BB Bills suffered a horrific bad break with a fluky INT when driving to the goalline or this game would be totally different.....instead they are down 6 - 10 and now I need Bills to score at least 2 TDs in the 2H or I am sunk on REGRESSION SUNDAY ....as anticipated.... 3Q Miami starts a drive and I may look for a hedge bet here pretty soon if they can move into scoring position Bills recover fumble!! LUCKY BREAKS now almost even imo....
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Early 1Q, no score...Bills ball over midfield....LIVE BET: Bills -290 *BB Bills suffered a horrific bad break with a fluky INT when driving to the goalline or this game would be totally different.....instead they are down 6 - 10 and now I need Bills to score at least 2 TDs in the 2H or I am sunk on REGRESSION SUNDAY ....as anticipated.... 3Q Miami starts a drive and I may look for a hedge bet here pretty soon if they can move into scoring position Bills recover fumble!! LUCKY BREAKS now almost even imo....
Bills score but miss a *CRUCIAL* PAT
A simple FG can beat them at home...
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