Why most people like to bet spreads and not totals?

Is there any reason why 80% of the posts here are about spreads and only 20% are about totals?

Am I among the few freaks here who prefer totals more than spreads?

I have tried totals forever.  I have lost a fortune on totals and find it takes valuable time away from my effort of trying to be right on the side.

Now, nba playoffs and nhl last night I tried under 1h under game and got a little over zealous went over 2h GS.

Nhl had under Canes and under Flames.

For the sides I hit GS game GS 1h GS 2h Canes Flames.  All home teams a a sweep.. I tried to be fancy w totals and it cost me time and aggravation.

Please share your secrets for totals.  I am intrigued.

@Racerxtc

I don't think I have sercrets for totals but I can share with you some ideas why I liked the under for Game 1 between GSW and Dallas:

1) The line for Game 1 between Miami and Boston was "way off", it opened around 207, went down to 204 - and ended up with 225 points, 21 pts over the original line.

2) That made me feel the oddsmakers might have "switched" between the odds, and 204 should be more appropriate for this game whilst the 214 was appropriate for the game that was already over.

3) People have a lot of conceptions about Golden State scoring a lot, because of Stephen Curry and Luka Doncic from Dallas, but this is actually where the conception is "wrong" - Game 1 that has no proper precedents is the one to take the under in such cases .... always question and show doubt towards what the oddsmakers try to do.

4) Still, you could use the same logic towards many other games in the future - no one could tell it for sure before the actual result ... 

So there are no real secrets, but just a few guesses and such.

I definitely and firmly believe American Sports have no real integrity behind them, only money and business - these are the first, second and last priorities in these sports.

You can call it "rigged sports" or use softer terms, it doesn't really matter.

Just my 2 cents.

After 30 years of gambling I can tell you that it is hard enough to hit a side regularly, with any consistency.

If you do not believe that, find me a capper with a document record of more than 500 bets where they hit over 65%.

Shit, even 60% I would be mildly impressed.  I am not talking about a 40-50 game stretch where the guy goes 32-18............I mean long term

Now.....they cannot even pick a winner at over a 60% clip for any long term period, and........they wanna predict THE SCORE ALSO?!?!?   

What are we wizards now?  It is just not feasible to predict, we are now getting into lottery area to some extent.  

I am somewhat joking, but only to make a point.  The totals bets, in my opinion, are just the icing on the cake for the books.  The only times I have confidently bet totals is when I am betting due to weather.  That actually usually works out in your favor (or it has for me, think new england/buffalo game last year, or packers/niners playoff game)

Again, I mean over time.....lots of bets........if a person makes 10 bets in a year and hits 7 of them that is not what I am talking about.  I am talking about real grinder gamblers that love the hobby.  I have made close to 1000 bets in the past year........I can honestly say maybe 5% were totals, probably even less than that.  That even sounds high lol.  I would argue that most old school cappers probably feel the same way.  Maybe not, but that is how I look at it.  

It is like trying to predict how many times your girlfriend/wife is going to put on an outfit and look in the mirror and change it.  For mine, the O/U on that would be 3, but I would make it 2.5 just to fuck with you.  On the weekends it would be 3.5. 

I also have a few bookies in my family, and am friends with a few, and they have always spoken highly of how good "the totals have been to them".  This alone makes me stay away unless there is a number literally jumping off the page at me

I like totals in baseball but prefer sides in basketball. I don’t like playing totals in nba because you can be pretty much dead in the first quarter on either side

good post i think bc we never know how a game is officiated. Look at game 1 boston heat... each team shot 30 FT basically dooming any under backers. Constant clock stop and FT 

This is the answer to the OP's question.  I try to predict scores to use as a baseline for a game, and then adjust from there, based on many criteria.  But the fact of the matter is, a change of just a couple percentage points in shooting, especially 3's, can easily change the outcome of a game.  2 teams can go w/o a score in the last 2 minutes of a game, or they can put up 20.  It's just too volatile for me.

For me, totals bets before the game are pretty much the same as flipping a coin.  And to be honest, I'm barely profitable when picking a side before the game, and that's only because I really pick and choose my spots, sometimes going weeks without making a bet before a game starts.  I make most of my profits on betting live totals, mainly NBA, NHL and MLB, and most of that comes before the playoffs start.  During the NBA playoffs, my live betting profitability drops significantly, to the point that I'm better off focusing on MLB this time of the year.

The way I see it, betting on a side is betting on how one team matches up against another team.  Betting on totals isn't quite as much about the matchup as it is how each team will perform and execute.  In the NBA, shooters run hot or cold, and trying to predict this before tipoff is nearly impossible, especially with teams that rely on the 3 ball.  Also, some nights, a team will play D with intensity, and the next night their defensive effort is almost completely lacking.  Trying to predict their mindset is difficult, and for the most part, I think we're making guesses about what the finished puzzle will look like, while only having access to less than half the pieces.  After the game starts, more of the puzzle pieces reveal themselves and we can get a better idea of how the teams will perform.  Most of the time, the betting markets adjust accordingly and appropriately.  Sometimes they don't.  Waiting for those spots where the markets fail to adjust is tedious, but those spots are by far the most profitable.

I've never met an UNDER I didn't like. But I post OVERS because I hate money and masochistically want to lose as it's a familiar feeling. 

@NBAAddiction18

 I know a few bookies back in the day who retired early because of total players. Info was lacking for illegal gambling and majority of total bets pertained to the NFL schedule. I for one never thought betting over & unders to this day is a great idea even with so much info being available. 

Lots of great takes. Thanks fellas. 

BOLTA!!! 

You can lose an over or under in garbage time. That's why I hate it lol

I really believe it has to be cuz were not sure of the side, so you mentally think GS scores, well then dallas has to keep up,(over) WRONG...

or your totally sure of the side (miami), they play defense,boston wont be able to score enough(under) WRONG..YOU SEE THE PROBLEM WITH THIS MENTALITY...

IF YOU REALLY WANT TO MAKE MONEY, MAKE YOUR FIRST BET,100.00, THEN 2 MINUTES BEFORE GAME TIME REVERSE IT FOR (500)...GUARANTEED YOU KILL IT OVER THE LONG RUN.. WHATEVER SYSTEM YOUR USING.....IT WILL BE VERY HARD AT FIRST, BUT NO MATTER WHAT REVERSE IT.....SEE YOU AT THE WINDOW...

P.S. I INVEST ALOT!!!!!!!

@Digitalkarma

 Same thing as a back door cover. I love when I lose by a buzzer beater 3 when team that shot it is down by 12 lol

Totals no fun. If I’m going to

lose/win cash I’m going down rooting. It’s for entertainment anyway. Expensive entertainment 

All about getting good #s and not betting against the market. Doesn’t matter if it’s a total, spread, or ML. 

if a total is at 205 and you take the over @ 205 and it goes to 207 at tip-off. You got a good number and made a good bet. Even if the total goes under you did the right thing.  

I just didn't develop the knack for it as I have done for spreads and I just seemed to keep losing more than winning - so I plugged that leak rather than keep trying to master ANOTHER thing to bet on.

There are totals players who are very sharp and are similar to poker players who can calculate percentages in their  not onheads..I not one of those human computer guys, I do use stats but also there is just the eye test and gut feelings, knowledge of history and how teams tend to perform in certain spots, human nature type things that I can glean more effectively for sides/spreads.

Also, I think those sharp totals guys end up driving themselves nuts with their Beautiful Mind type handicapping eventually... Ive seen it happen. Miracling2 who posts on here is like that, with his half total bombs in basketball... he is probably exceptionally talented at math. What happens is when the formulas stop working as they should these guys lose the plot and cant see how you shouldn't put your life savings on a 1st half under between Zimbabwe and Mexico.

Some reason also I just genuinely find it less enjoyable to be rooting for makes or misses, but if it went my way more I'd probably enjoy it more. It seemed when I tried if I try and under suddenly it was raining 3s and go for an Over and 86% free throw shooters are clanging bricks. 

If you're betting NBA totals, you should be paying attention to the tendencies of the refs.  Officials make mistakes all the time, but they do have tendencies.  Put a couple of refs together who like to blow whistles, and put them on a game with a team that is great from the FT line and you might find that the over is giftwrapped for you.  Think about this: 1 extra shooting foul per quarter is 8 extra FT attempts per game.  Assume 5 of those are going in.  If those extra 4 fouls per game are called, your under bet could be in trouble.  But what if they aren't called?  What if you've got the over and 1 less shooting foul per quarter is called, and leads to 5 less points being scored? Ruh-Roh!

For me, pregame totals = trouble, which is why I generally stay away.

Simple. I never won O/U

True that but from my personal experience I get moosed more on the total than I do spread.  Just not lucky enough with it I guess lol and maybe for others too so that's why there are more posted plays on the spread 

I really enjoy betting totals pregame, especially overs in the reg season. As for the NBA, there are so many advanced stats and databases showing you a team’s offensive/defensive ratings, their season average pace per game and I could go on and on about all the stats. 

Make a system, make sure you back test it to see if it’s been profitable over the last few seasons and see how you go 

Great post NBA Addiction

Curiously I looked back over the last 30 days analyzing sides and totals plays and my overall “losing” percentages were 53.5% on totals versus 51.4% on sides. Not good enough either way to make a profit, just loss only 2.1% more on totals!

lol

Thanks for making me look at this…usually just running and gunning…

if ur not getting good #s u are going to lose. 

Totals are hard thats why lol. I love to bet totals myself  but at the end of the day you are betting on a coin flip despite what the numbers might tell you. Take the game tonight.  How many free throws will be attempted?  I dont know and neither do you. Im still a sucker for overs and ill be taking it again tonight but with that being said its still a coin flip. 

@Raider4life22

 What about the fact halftime was 219.5, opening line was 207.5 but still ... the "value" seems to be with under 219.5 because of the opening line - but in such instances going against that trend, doing/taking that difficult decision is more rewarding eventually.

I'm talking about last game between Miami and Boston (had no bet on it) - what do you think?