Posted:
#1
YTD Posted: 7-0-0
Average Margin of Cover: 11.71 points/game
I've been trying to figure out since last night why the line on the Pistons-Cavs game is only a PK, and I'm convinced this is just a very good opportunity to bet. My pick for today is Detroit PK.
I have no idea why the spread for this game is even. I would have guessed, before the line came out, that a Detroit PK would have gotten massive action from the public, similar to last night's GS-Sac game, where something like 80 percent of the public bet on the Warriors and fell into the trap. This is definitely not a trap, since the consensus is almost 50/50 and the line is moving in favor of the Cavs. I think I just underestimated the love that people have for the Cavs, or more specifically Lebron. This is good news for us. Lines makers essentially gave Detroit backers a few extra points just because the public likes Cleveland so much. These few points will allow me some margin for error in my analysis, that is, if there is an error. The public is just slightly on Detroit's side, but the line is moving pretty rapidly away from Detroit, which means Vegas expected more bettors on the Cavs and didn't get them. Now they are adjusting the line to do what they initially intended, get people to bet on Cleveland.
With Vegas' intentions out of the way, let's look at the match up. The most important pieces of information that odds makers used to form this line and bettors used to pick a side is the fact that the Cavs are hot at home, Detroit is coming off a back-to-back, and Cleveland has a tendency to give Detroit problems. First off, the Cavs have won seven straight at home. It's never a good idea to bet against a hot team at home, especially when the line is a PK, but in this case, I don't see the problem with it. In those 7 games, the Cavs did not play a single team above the .500 mark. They only covered the spread in 4 of those games, losing ATS in their last home game to a Bobcats team that was beaten by the GRIZZLIES a night before. Their seven game home winning streak is simply not that impressive, as they played weak teams in all of the games. They mowed through the cupcake portion of their schedule, there is no doubt, but what have they done against better teams? Well, they've lost just about every tough game since February. Immediately before their 7 game winning streak, they played three contenders from the West (Houston, Denver, San Antonio), all at home, and they lost each game, none of which were within less than 8 points. The Pistons, on the other hand, just ripped off an effortless three game winning spree against the exact same teams.
It's not like the Cavs are coming into this game with any real momentum either--they've lost 3 out of their last 4 straight up, including one to the Nets and the Wizards, the same Wizards team that lost at home to the Hawks the other night. The Cavaliers are not playing at a high level at all right now. They can mow down the easy teams at home, but they lose to just about anyone on the road and any top team at home. But the spread is even? What?
Let's take a look at the Pistons: They've won their last three games against playoff contenders from the west, knocking them off easily. On the road, they are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games, with two of the losses coming to the two toughest teams in the league to beat--Boston, and the Jazz at home. On the other hand, they've beaten Denver and Phoenix on the road, never an easy task. The Pistons certainly are not an absolutely dominant team on the road, but they are top 5 in the league. They play very well in big games, at home or on the road, and have the veteran leadership to stick to their game plan no matter where they are playing.
The motivation factor is not an issue here. If anything the Pistons will want to prove that they can beat Cleveland in a big game after last season's playoff loss. They blew out the Cavaliers earlier this year and demonstrated that the Cavs don't have their number and aren't going to pull out a sneaky win.
A few more bits of information to add: After coming off a victory by more than 10 points this year, the Pistons are 12-2 ATS if playing on the road. They are 9-5 ATS with no days rest. The Pistons are shooting a ridiculous 51% in their previous 5 games and scoring 104 points on average against very good teams. The Pistons are simply the stronger team here.
Lebron is always a factor in games like these. I am not ignoring his ability to take a game into his own hands and win it. However, I have watched this team after their deal with the Bulls, and I don't think they are as good as they used to be. Ben Wallace, in my opinion, holds the team up more than he helps them. Delonte West is a weak point guard. The Pistons will have Z matched up well with Rasheed. Lebron will be dangerous, but where was he when they lost to Houston, or Denver, or the Spurs, all at home? He can't win everything.
I hope you guys can get this before the Pistons are favored. If not, get it at -1 or whatever. Pistons, I think, will win this SU.
Good luck, let's keep things bouncing my way
Average Margin of Cover: 11.71 points/game
I've been trying to figure out since last night why the line on the Pistons-Cavs game is only a PK, and I'm convinced this is just a very good opportunity to bet. My pick for today is Detroit PK.
I have no idea why the spread for this game is even. I would have guessed, before the line came out, that a Detroit PK would have gotten massive action from the public, similar to last night's GS-Sac game, where something like 80 percent of the public bet on the Warriors and fell into the trap. This is definitely not a trap, since the consensus is almost 50/50 and the line is moving in favor of the Cavs. I think I just underestimated the love that people have for the Cavs, or more specifically Lebron. This is good news for us. Lines makers essentially gave Detroit backers a few extra points just because the public likes Cleveland so much. These few points will allow me some margin for error in my analysis, that is, if there is an error. The public is just slightly on Detroit's side, but the line is moving pretty rapidly away from Detroit, which means Vegas expected more bettors on the Cavs and didn't get them. Now they are adjusting the line to do what they initially intended, get people to bet on Cleveland.
With Vegas' intentions out of the way, let's look at the match up. The most important pieces of information that odds makers used to form this line and bettors used to pick a side is the fact that the Cavs are hot at home, Detroit is coming off a back-to-back, and Cleveland has a tendency to give Detroit problems. First off, the Cavs have won seven straight at home. It's never a good idea to bet against a hot team at home, especially when the line is a PK, but in this case, I don't see the problem with it. In those 7 games, the Cavs did not play a single team above the .500 mark. They only covered the spread in 4 of those games, losing ATS in their last home game to a Bobcats team that was beaten by the GRIZZLIES a night before. Their seven game home winning streak is simply not that impressive, as they played weak teams in all of the games. They mowed through the cupcake portion of their schedule, there is no doubt, but what have they done against better teams? Well, they've lost just about every tough game since February. Immediately before their 7 game winning streak, they played three contenders from the West (Houston, Denver, San Antonio), all at home, and they lost each game, none of which were within less than 8 points. The Pistons, on the other hand, just ripped off an effortless three game winning spree against the exact same teams.
It's not like the Cavs are coming into this game with any real momentum either--they've lost 3 out of their last 4 straight up, including one to the Nets and the Wizards, the same Wizards team that lost at home to the Hawks the other night. The Cavaliers are not playing at a high level at all right now. They can mow down the easy teams at home, but they lose to just about anyone on the road and any top team at home. But the spread is even? What?
Let's take a look at the Pistons: They've won their last three games against playoff contenders from the west, knocking them off easily. On the road, they are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games, with two of the losses coming to the two toughest teams in the league to beat--Boston, and the Jazz at home. On the other hand, they've beaten Denver and Phoenix on the road, never an easy task. The Pistons certainly are not an absolutely dominant team on the road, but they are top 5 in the league. They play very well in big games, at home or on the road, and have the veteran leadership to stick to their game plan no matter where they are playing.
The motivation factor is not an issue here. If anything the Pistons will want to prove that they can beat Cleveland in a big game after last season's playoff loss. They blew out the Cavaliers earlier this year and demonstrated that the Cavs don't have their number and aren't going to pull out a sneaky win.
A few more bits of information to add: After coming off a victory by more than 10 points this year, the Pistons are 12-2 ATS if playing on the road. They are 9-5 ATS with no days rest. The Pistons are shooting a ridiculous 51% in their previous 5 games and scoring 104 points on average against very good teams. The Pistons are simply the stronger team here.
Lebron is always a factor in games like these. I am not ignoring his ability to take a game into his own hands and win it. However, I have watched this team after their deal with the Bulls, and I don't think they are as good as they used to be. Ben Wallace, in my opinion, holds the team up more than he helps them. Delonte West is a weak point guard. The Pistons will have Z matched up well with Rasheed. Lebron will be dangerous, but where was he when they lost to Houston, or Denver, or the Spurs, all at home? He can't win everything.
I hope you guys can get this before the Pistons are favored. If not, get it at -1 or whatever. Pistons, I think, will win this SU.
Good luck, let's keep things bouncing my way
0
Denver is terrible on the road as well.
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