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The "Public" about to get rocked in Games 3,4, and 5.

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Posted: #26

PUBLIC EXPERT
Miami Spread 36 % ( 412 - 724 ) 25 % ( 2 - 6 )
San Antonio Spread 64 % ( 724 - 412 ) 75 % ( 6 - 2 )
 
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Posted: #27
Not such a huge sample size, but for a covers consensus with over 1,100 picks it's interesting to look at. 
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by HoosierBettor:



Winning game 1 in Miami is entirely different than winning a closeout game in Miami.  When Miami NEEDS to play well, they do, and they have all year and all playoffs.  They step up their defensive pressure in those situations and when they're playing great D, they're nearly impossible to beat, and even moreso at home. 

Similar to my post above, look at the Exact Game futures bets.  Currently Spurs in 6 is at +600.  Spurs in 5 is at +550.  More likely that Spurs take all 3 at home than win one of the 2 possible remaining games in Miami.  Very interesting if nothing else.  Good luck.


How do we know the Spurs won't act the same way Miami does in desperation mode?

I completely disagree with that statement in bold.  Don't care what the future lines show.  That's a pretty ridiculous statement.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:


PUBLIC EXPERT
Miami Spread 36 % ( 412 - 724 ) 25 % ( 2 - 6 )
San Antonio Spread 64 % ( 724 - 412 ) 75 % ( 6 - 2 )


Do you realize that the "Betting Trends" numbers that the sportsbooks public like the one you have here is % of actual bets, but doesn't take dollar amount bet into consideration?  Dollar amount bet is really what mattes and what would move lines and ML odds, but books won't disclose that.  The data above is nothing more than another piece of information used to entice people to bet more often, either with the "I'm going with the majority" or the contrarian betting styles. 
 
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Posted: #30
Anybody can comment and disagree with me.  I won't be the slightest bit shocked if Spurs win tonight's game.  I will most likely be on whichever team loses tonight's game for game 4. 
 
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Posted: #31
wow  took a teaser  2 team teaser.....8pt  teaser  heat +10  over  179.5....looks good.....I HOPE LOL.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:



How do we know the Spurs won't act the same way Miami does in desperation mode?

I completely disagree with that statement in bold.  Don't care what the future lines show.  That's a pretty ridiculous statement.


You don't have to agree with the odds, but that's what they're telling us right now.  I'm sure you know this, but all odds, futures bets, etc. tell a story.  You don't have to agree with the story they're telling but the odds are what they are.
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by HoosierBettor:



Do you realize that the "Betting Trends" numbers that the sportsbooks public like the one you have here is % of actual bets, but doesn't take dollar amount bet into consideration?  Dollar amount bet is really what mattes and what would move lines and ML odds, but books won't disclose that.  The data above is nothing more than another piece of information used to entice people to bet more often, either with the "I'm going with the majority" or the contrarian betting styles. 


Dude, it's covers consensus.  I was just showing what people that pick games on covers were leaning for this game tonight.  Has nothing to do with where the money is going or the lines moving.  Get a clue before you type silly sentences. 
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by HoosierBettor:



You don't have to agree with the odds, but that's what they're telling us right now.  I'm sure you know this, but all odds, futures bets, etc. tell a story.  You don't have to agree with the story they're telling but the odds are what they are.


I agree with my story more than what the odds show.   
 
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Posted: #35
https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/matchups/g5_summary_1.html
 
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Posted: #36
Shango - i just think the whole notion of "sharps" vs "the public" is completely overrated, mis-understood and mis-used. 15 years ago "sharps" had an edge becuase they read and understood information and stats that wasnt readily available to most people. most people got their information from the boxscore in the newspaper the next day. nowadays, EVERYONE on this site has access to more information and stats than any sharp would have 15 or 20 years ago. the new wave of "sharps" use advanced stats and computer algorithms to find an edge in the line and guess what, those edges are rarely found in big time nationally televised games. lines for such games are spot on most of the time. to look at how the betting is going and to assume that the lesser side is "sharp" is especially the covers concensus is foolhardy
 
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Posted: #37
Even is you have access to inside information of books numbers and know the actual numbers, dont assume that the more heavily bet side is "public"... Alot of books will lay off that extra action onto another book to minimize their risk
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

Shango - i just think the whole notion of "sharps" vs "the public" is completely overrated, mis-understood and mis-used. 15 years ago "sharps" had an edge becuase they read and understood information and stats that wasnt readily available to most people. most people got their information from the boxscore in the newspaper the next day. nowadays, EVERYONE on this site has access to more information and stats than any sharp would have 15 or 20 years ago. the new wave of "sharps" use advanced stats and computer algorithms to find an edge in the line and guess what, those edges are rarely found in big time nationally televised games. lines for such games are spot on most of the time. to look at how the betting is going and to assume that the lesser side is "sharp" is especially the covers concensus is foolhardy


Agree to disagree.  I've made some nice money on this site fading people and covers consensuses. 

And you are making my exact point.  It's so hard to find edges in nationally televised games, so sometimes you need to figure out where the money is coming in and side with Vegas on certain circumstances.  I rarely bet bet solely on public perception, but it is useful when handicapping games.
 
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Posted: #39
As for tonights game - i have no clue. the game is a coin flip, will be tight down the stretch and will depend on execution in the final minutes. the line is spot on and there is no value either way imo . no play
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

Even is you have access to inside information of books numbers and know the actual numbers, dont assume that the more heavily bet side is "public"... Alot of books will lay off that extra action onto another book to minimize their risk


That may be true, but I can have my opinions on which side I think the "public" will be leaning towards.  Everyone has their opinions and I have stated mine about the rest of the series.  I can easily be wrong and very well might be, but that's just what I believe will happen this series. 
 
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Posted: #41
Game 1: SAS wins
Game 2: MIA wins
Game 3: SAS 
Game 4: MIA
Game 5: SAS
Game 6: MIA
Game 7: ??

Just like vs IND... except SAS is a far superior team than IND.. regardless of IND being a good matchup.. 

Do not underestimate these veterans at home after getting manhandled in the 4th... you are overthinking it good sir. GL anyways, Pop is going to teach Miami backers a lesson..
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

As for tonights game - i have no clue. the game is a coin flip, will be tight down the stretch and will depend on execution in the final minutes. the line is spot on and there is no value either way imo . no play


I just think it's interesting that you need to lay -135 for the Spurs on the ML, when last game was Heat -6.  Usually it's a 6 point swing from home to away.  I think Vegas wants people to lay the juice tonight on the Spurs ML.  Just my opinion for whatever it's worth.  Line should be pk, IMO.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by Gr8nader:

Game 1: SAS wins
Game 2: MIA wins
Game 3: SAS 
Game 4: MIA
Game 5: SAS
Game 6: MIA
Game 7: ??

Just like vs IND... except SAS is a far superior team than IND.. regardless of IND being a good matchup.. 

Do not underestimate these veterans at home after getting manhandled in the 4th... you are overthinking it good sir. GL anyways, Pop is going to teach Miami backers a lesson..


Or Lebron is going to teach Spurs backers a lesson tonight. 
 
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Posted: #44
Shango - do what you need to do make money. i do hope the heat win tonight as i have them to win the series.

Though i hope the heat wrap it up before then, i will be supremely confident taking the heat in a game 7 at home. i presented the evidence clearly infront of you of teams winning on the road when facing elimination - its happened twice since '85. i dont know how you can say its the dumbest thing you have read all day when the cold hard facts are right there!

only twice in 28 years have teams won games in the finals when facing elimantion on the road. you are dismissing hard evidence to support your own belief, rather than having you beliefs formed by hard evidence. thats what right wing religious zealots do. i never said the spurs couldnt win it, i just said they have to win in six or better
 
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Posted: #45
Okay, I'm out everyone.  I'll be on later.  Hope it's a great game tonight.  Everyone good luck with your bets. 
 
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Posted: #46

You never want to play it like that. The % are vastly against it.

Never pick the team you think will win the series to lose game 3 with the series tied 1-1.

In history of NBA Finals with series tied 1-1 the game 3 winner has gone on to win the series 30 of 35 times or 85.7%.

From 2010 through 2013 in all playoff games tied 1-1, the game 3 winner has gone on to win the series 22 of 26 times or 84.6 %.

One of the secrets of successful sports predictions is understanding the odds and putting them in your favor........................................

 
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Posted: #47
Well, we agree and one things and that is my Heat take tonights game. They are just much better than SAS. Neal and Green will regress with their lights out shooting. It all comes to Lebron getting out of Dallas mode. If/when he does that, the Heat will def take two in SAS. Hope for an early deficit so I can get Heat around +5 or +6. BOL Papa. 
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

You never want to play it like that. The % are vastly against it.

Never pick the team you think will win the series to lose game 3 with the series tied 1-1.

In history of NBA Finals with series tied 1-1 the game 3 winner has gone on to win the series 30 of 35 times or 85.7%.

From 2010 through 2013 in all playoff games tied 1-1, the game 3 winner has gone on to win the series 22 of 26 times or 84.6 %.

One of the secrets of successful sports predictions is understanding the odds and putting them in your favor........................................



You're absolutely right but thought I would add that the 2-3-2 format has only been implemented since 1985.  Since then, in series tied 1-1, the game 3 winner has won 11 of 12 finals.
 
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Posted: #49
BOL 

I got Spurs....18-5 following loss. 2 of those loses were Pop emptied bench towards end of season. 


I don't see Miller, Chalmer & Co doing what they did in Miami. Lebron will get his 25-30 pts as usually. But way too risky to go on Miami. 

If James has an even an average game they lose.
Wade & Bosh no where to be found as usual.

Can't risk it. Spurs at home, Veteran, sound, consistent team coming off loss. 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Damn terrible grammar. Got stop typing fast
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