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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    *** The Portland TrailBlazers to Oust the Houston Rockets in the First Round ***

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    LeagueCapper
    bobmaloogatimesfive
    kdawgy
    juggernat
    FullOfStool
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    LeagueCapper
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 2:35 PM ET #1

    The Rockets are pretenders. They aren't fit for playoff basketball one bit. They don't play defense, can't play in a half-court setting, have no coaching, and do nothing that is needed to win in the playoffs.

    Free Throw Percentage:
    • Blazers - #1 in Free Throw Percentage
    • Rockets - #27 in Free Throw Percentage
    Rebounding:
    • Blazers - #1 in Total Rebounding
    • Blazers - #3 in Total Offensive Rebounding
    • Rockets - #5 in Total Rebounding
    • Rockets - #15 in Offensive Rebounding
    Turnovers:
    • Blazers - #7 in Turnovers
    • Rockets - #29 in Turnovers (only behind the 76ers)
    The Blazers are hungry. They have missed the playoffs for 2 straight years. 
    • Blazers +175 for the Series (3x)
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    The Rockets are pretenders. They aren't fit for playoff basketball one bit. They don't play defense, can't play in a half-court setting, have no coaching, and do nothing that is needed to win in the playoffs.

    Free Throw Percentage:
    • Blazers - #1 in Free Throw Percentage
    • Rockets - #27 in Free Throw Percentage
    Rebounding:
    • Blazers - #1 in Total Rebounding
    • Blazers - #3 in Total Offensive Rebounding
    • Rockets - #5 in Total Rebounding
    • Rockets - #15 in Offensive Rebounding
    Turnovers:
    • Blazers - #7 in Turnovers
    • Rockets - #29 in Turnovers (only behind the 76ers)
    The Blazers are hungry. They have missed the playoffs for 2 straight years. 
    • Blazers +175 for the Series (3x)
     
    bobmaloogatimesfive
    bobmaloogatimesfive
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 2:39 PM ET #2

    Love it and totally agree LC -- the Blazers are this year's Warriors IMO -- darlings
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    Love it and totally agree LC -- the Blazers are this year's Warriors IMO -- darlings
     
    kdawgy
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 2:41 PM ET #3

    Barring a major injury to James Harden or Chandler Parsons, I think the Rockets are one of the better picks in the first round.

    The play extremely well at home, own the season series with Portland 3-1 and actually believe THEY are the hungrier team.

    Harden wants to prove he can be a winner as the team leader, Howard badly wants to prove he made the right decision leaving LA, and all the younger guys couldn't have more energy.

    Every game in the NBA is a live game as we learned yesterday, but I don't think there's an angle or positive expected value betting against the rockets in this series while they have home court advantage.
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    Barring a major injury to James Harden or Chandler Parsons, I think the Rockets are one of the better picks in the first round.

    The play extremely well at home, own the season series with Portland 3-1 and actually believe THEY are the hungrier team.

    Harden wants to prove he can be a winner as the team leader, Howard badly wants to prove he made the right decision leaving LA, and all the younger guys couldn't have more energy.

    Every game in the NBA is a live game as we learned yesterday, but I don't think there's an angle or positive expected value betting against the rockets in this series while they have home court advantage.
     
    LeagueCapper
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 2:47 PM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by kdawgy:

    Barring a major injury to James Harden or Chandler Parsons, I think the Rockets are one of the better picks in the first round.

    The play extremely well at home, own the season series with Portland 3-1 and actually believe THEY are the hungrier team.

    Harden wants to prove he can be a winner as the team leader, Howard badly wants to prove he made the right decision leaving LA, and all the younger guys couldn't have more energy.

    Every game in the NBA is a live game as we learned yesterday, but I don't think there's an angle or positive expected value betting against the rockets in this series while they have home court advantage.

    #1 ) Regular Season is much different than in the Postseason
    #2 ) Spoken like a true one-sider. Why don't you address Portland's motivation instead of just Harden and Howard? Or is the Rockets the only team with motivated players in this series?
    #3 ) The Blazers and Rockets will split the first two games, and the Rockets will no longer have homecourt advantage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kdawgy:

    Barring a major injury to James Harden or Chandler Parsons, I think the Rockets are one of the better picks in the first round.

    The play extremely well at home, own the season series with Portland 3-1 and actually believe THEY are the hungrier team.

    Harden wants to prove he can be a winner as the team leader, Howard badly wants to prove he made the right decision leaving LA, and all the younger guys couldn't have more energy.

    Every game in the NBA is a live game as we learned yesterday, but I don't think there's an angle or positive expected value betting against the rockets in this series while they have home court advantage.

    #1 ) Regular Season is much different than in the Postseason
    #2 ) Spoken like a true one-sider. Why don't you address Portland's motivation instead of just Harden and Howard? Or is the Rockets the only team with motivated players in this series?
    #3 ) The Blazers and Rockets will split the first two games, and the Rockets will no longer have homecourt advantage.

     
    juggernat
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 2:51 PM ET #5

    CLUTCH CITY PERIOD!
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    CLUTCH CITY PERIOD!
     
    FullOfStool
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 2:57 PM ET #6

    You're out of your mind.
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    You're out of your mind.
     
    PapaShango
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 2:59 PM ET #7

    Houston has a better offensive and defensive efficiency rating.

    Houston has a better true shooting % and EFF %.

    Houston also has a better rebounding rate and the best 2 players in the series (Harden and Howard).
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    Houston has a better offensive and defensive efficiency rating.

    Houston has a better true shooting % and EFF %.

    Houston also has a better rebounding rate and the best 2 players in the series (Harden and Howard).
     
    kdawgy
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 3:03 PM ET #8

    Actually, I'm a big Aldridge fan as he was at UT when I was a student there.  But if anything, I'm big on the rockets because I have made a lot of $ on them this season, lol. 

    I believe they are one of the best shooting teams in the league, up there with OKC and Miami, but they don't get the respect yet.  So while those teams are favored by 8-10 at home, you've got the rockets at only 5.

    Also, you through out a lot of stats but look at free throws attempted for Harden and Howard.  Both draw a lot of fouls and are 2nd and 3rd respectively, behind only Kevin Durant.  So even with Howards HORRID shooting percentage, that is still a LOT of free points every game.

    Finally, I honestly think the difference maker is Chandler Parsons.  He is often overlooked on a team with Harden and Howard, and Jeremy Lin as the 6th man.  Kid can shoot outside, drive, and hit some clutch shots.  He needs to toughen up a little bit, but he's a big asset.

    For the record, I'm on Houston, first half of game one, big. That's it.  So take that for what it is.

    Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:


    #1 ) Regular Season is much different than in the Postseason
    #2 ) Spoken like a true one-sider. Why don't you address Portland's motivation instead of just Harden and Howard? Or is the Rockets the only team with motivated players in this series?
    #3 ) The Blazers and Rockets will split the first two games, and the Rockets will no longer have homecourt advantage.

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    Actually, I'm a big Aldridge fan as he was at UT when I was a student there.  But if anything, I'm big on the rockets because I have made a lot of $ on them this season, lol. 

    I believe they are one of the best shooting teams in the league, up there with OKC and Miami, but they don't get the respect yet.  So while those teams are favored by 8-10 at home, you've got the rockets at only 5.

    Also, you through out a lot of stats but look at free throws attempted for Harden and Howard.  Both draw a lot of fouls and are 2nd and 3rd respectively, behind only Kevin Durant.  So even with Howards HORRID shooting percentage, that is still a LOT of free points every game.

    Finally, I honestly think the difference maker is Chandler Parsons.  He is often overlooked on a team with Harden and Howard, and Jeremy Lin as the 6th man.  Kid can shoot outside, drive, and hit some clutch shots.  He needs to toughen up a little bit, but he's a big asset.

    For the record, I'm on Houston, first half of game one, big. That's it.  So take that for what it is.

    Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:


    #1 ) Regular Season is much different than in the Postseason
    #2 ) Spoken like a true one-sider. Why don't you address Portland's motivation instead of just Harden and Howard? Or is the Rockets the only team with motivated players in this series?
    #3 ) The Blazers and Rockets will split the first two games, and the Rockets will no longer have homecourt advantage.

     
    kdawgy
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 3:04 PM ET #9

    [repost so it's not in stupid quote box]

    Actually, I'm a big Aldridge fan as he was at UT when I was a student there.  But if anything, I'm big on the rockets because I have made a lot of $ on them this season, lol. 

    I believe they are one of the best shooting teams in the league, up there with OKC and Miami, but they don't get the respect yet.  So while those teams are favored by 8-10 at home, you've got the rockets at only 5.

    Also, you through out a lot of stats but look at free throws attempted for Harden and Howard.  Both draw a lot of fouls and are 2nd and 3rd respectively, behind only Kevin Durant.  So even with Howards HORRID shooting percentage, that is still a LOT of free points every game.

    Finally, I honestly think the difference maker is Chandler Parsons.  He is often overlooked on a team with Harden and Howard, and Jeremy Lin as the 6th man.  Kid can shoot outside, drive, and hit some clutch shots.  He needs to toughen up a little bit, but he's a big asset.

    For the record, I'm on Houston, first half of game one, big. That's it.  So take that for what it is.
    Reply
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    [repost so it's not in stupid quote box]

    Actually, I'm a big Aldridge fan as he was at UT when I was a student there.  But if anything, I'm big on the rockets because I have made a lot of $ on them this season, lol. 

    I believe they are one of the best shooting teams in the league, up there with OKC and Miami, but they don't get the respect yet.  So while those teams are favored by 8-10 at home, you've got the rockets at only 5.

    Also, you through out a lot of stats but look at free throws attempted for Harden and Howard.  Both draw a lot of fouls and are 2nd and 3rd respectively, behind only Kevin Durant.  So even with Howards HORRID shooting percentage, that is still a LOT of free points every game.

    Finally, I honestly think the difference maker is Chandler Parsons.  He is often overlooked on a team with Harden and Howard, and Jeremy Lin as the 6th man.  Kid can shoot outside, drive, and hit some clutch shots.  He needs to toughen up a little bit, but he's a big asset.

    For the record, I'm on Houston, first half of game one, big. That's it.  So take that for what it is.
     
    LeagueCapper
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 3:14 PM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

    Houston has a better offensive and defensive efficiency rating.

    Houston has a better true shooting % and EFF %.

    Houston also has a better rebounding rate and the best 2 players in the series (Harden and Howard).

    Those are numbers that matter in the regular season, not the playoffs
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    Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

    Houston has a better offensive and defensive efficiency rating.

    Houston has a better true shooting % and EFF %.

    Houston also has a better rebounding rate and the best 2 players in the series (Harden and Howard).

    Those are numbers that matter in the regular season, not the playoffs
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 3:41 PM ET #11

    LC clearly went back and read my Suns Blazers thread from game 1 and now is trying to jump on the bandwagon I was already driving.

    A little late LC.

    If this one hits, I'll add it to my record.
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    LC clearly went back and read my Suns Blazers thread from game 1 and now is trying to jump on the bandwagon I was already driving.

    A little late LC.

    If this one hits, I'll add it to my record.
     
    VegasVandal
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 3:59 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    LC clearly went back and read my Suns Blazers thread from game 1 and now is trying to jump on the bandwagon I was already driving.

    A little late LC.

    If this one hits, I'll add it to my record.



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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    LC clearly went back and read my Suns Blazers thread from game 1 and now is trying to jump on the bandwagon I was already driving.

    A little late LC.

    If this one hits, I'll add it to my record.



     
    LeagueCapper
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 4:00 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    LC clearly went back and read my Suns Blazers thread from game 1 and now is trying to jump on the bandwagon I was already driving.

    A little late LC.

    If this one hits, I'll add it to my record.

    Link?
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    Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

    LC clearly went back and read my Suns Blazers thread from game 1 and now is trying to jump on the bandwagon I was already driving.

    A little late LC.

    If this one hits, I'll add it to my record.

    Link?
     
    examine
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 4:10 PM ET #14

    never

    dream on

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    never

    dream on

     
    DWade9
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 4:12 PM ET #15

    I don't see it. They'll have a hard time stopping Harden and Dwight.
    Matthews needs to make Harden work on defense otherwise I don't see the upset. 

    BOL though! 
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    I don't see it. They'll have a hard time stopping Harden and Dwight.
    Matthews needs to make Harden work on defense otherwise I don't see the upset. 

    BOL though! 
     
    begginerboy
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 4:13 PM ET #16

    Rockets win for the same reason OKC wins. The league needs its stars.
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    Rockets win for the same reason OKC wins. The league needs its stars.
     
    MrKillaKross
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 4:24 PM ET #17

    Not in ur wildest dreams rockets get bounced first round to port with home court advantage port might steal a game or two but this league is built in super stars not all stars watch harden get every touch foul u even sneeze on him he going to the line and not a thing you will be able do about it.
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    Not in ur wildest dreams rockets get bounced first round to port with home court advantage port might steal a game or two but this league is built in super stars not all stars watch harden get every touch foul u even sneeze on him he going to the line and not a thing you will be able do about it.
     
    ilovewinners
    ilovewinners
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 4:40 PM ET #18

    LC, you're good! I hope you hit it. GL
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    LC, you're good! I hope you hit it. GL
     
    TooHigh2WonderWhy
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 4:54 PM ET #19

    Free Throw Percentage is straight up Hack a Dwight. Which would be a good ploy in the playoffs but does Stotts do that?
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    Free Throw Percentage is straight up Hack a Dwight. Which would be a good ploy in the playoffs but does Stotts do that?
     
    DeannbaBets
    DeannbaBets
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 6:01 PM ET #20

    Im with you in Wizards @ Bulls , but not in this one.

    You know Portland has one of the worst defense in the paint ? how they are going to stop Harden (2º player in the league to go to free throw line after Durant) and Dwight Howard ? Robin Lopez ? come on

    One thing its for sure. Both teams scores a lot of points. But in this case, Houston just is better.

    Houston wins series 4 - 2
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    Im with you in Wizards @ Bulls , but not in this one.

    You know Portland has one of the worst defense in the paint ? how they are going to stop Harden (2º player in the league to go to free throw line after Durant) and Dwight Howard ? Robin Lopez ? come on

    One thing its for sure. Both teams scores a lot of points. But in this case, Houston just is better.

    Houston wins series 4 - 2
     
    GeneCam27
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 6:08 PM ET #21

    Rockets will go off on them.....

    Those stats you mentioned are from the regular season as well. It changes in the playoffs right? As you mentioned 

    And since when does Portland play ANY DEFENSE at all? They have no bench and will get winded out as the series progresses. Portlands defense is even worse than the rockets. They will have no answer for Howard and Harden. Parson is better than Batum. And they can play howard wtih Asik to completely bottle up the inside and let Portland start chucking..... 
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    Rockets will go off on them.....

    Those stats you mentioned are from the regular season as well. It changes in the playoffs right? As you mentioned 

    And since when does Portland play ANY DEFENSE at all? They have no bench and will get winded out as the series progresses. Portlands defense is even worse than the rockets. They will have no answer for Howard and Harden. Parson is better than Batum. And they can play howard wtih Asik to completely bottle up the inside and let Portland start chucking..... 
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 6:52 PM ET #22

    Have to disagree with LC here. LC is the master of situational betting but apparently not so much in mathmatical probabilities.

    Shooting efficiency has the highest correlation and predictive value in the playoffs. Advantage Rockets

    Rebound % has a hgher predictive value then total rebounds, but that favors the Blazers, 51.35 to 50.75. Small Advantage Blazers

    The Blazers get more total rebounds but the Rockets out-rebound their opponents by more, 3.67 per game to the Blazers 2.94.

    Getting more rebounds does not nessecarily make you a better rebounding team, it depends how many rebounds your opponent gets.

    Free throws and rebounding  are two  of the most misunderstood of stats.

     Getting to the line more often has a higher correlation to victory than FT %.

    When a team gets to the line more often that means their opp takes a shot from the field.

    Even Howard shooting 54.7% from the line will easily out-shoot any team in the league , EVEN THE BEST SHOOTING TEAM WHICH PORTLAND IS FAR FROM  from the field when you factor-in TO'S.

    Blazers taken  about 104 more FT's then opp.

    Rockets taken more than 700 more then opp,  advantage Rockets.

    From a mathmatical probabilities point of view, it's all Rockets in this series.

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    Have to disagree with LC here. LC is the master of situational betting but apparently not so much in mathmatical probabilities.

    Shooting efficiency has the highest correlation and predictive value in the playoffs. Advantage Rockets

    Rebound % has a hgher predictive value then total rebounds, but that favors the Blazers, 51.35 to 50.75. Small Advantage Blazers

    The Blazers get more total rebounds but the Rockets out-rebound their opponents by more, 3.67 per game to the Blazers 2.94.

    Getting more rebounds does not nessecarily make you a better rebounding team, it depends how many rebounds your opponent gets.

    Free throws and rebounding  are two  of the most misunderstood of stats.

     Getting to the line more often has a higher correlation to victory than FT %.

    When a team gets to the line more often that means their opp takes a shot from the field.

    Even Howard shooting 54.7% from the line will easily out-shoot any team in the league , EVEN THE BEST SHOOTING TEAM WHICH PORTLAND IS FAR FROM  from the field when you factor-in TO'S.

    Blazers taken  about 104 more FT's then opp.

    Rockets taken more than 700 more then opp,  advantage Rockets.

    From a mathmatical probabilities point of view, it's all Rockets in this series.

     
    ClonedJew
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 6:54 PM ET #23

    Ma Ma Ma Ma The MUSH is here!!!!! And I love the rockets -5.5.....Allllllll rockets backers....you already lost...sry gents. But I am THEE MUSH!!!
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    Ma Ma Ma Ma The MUSH is here!!!!! And I love the rockets -5.5.....Allllllll rockets backers....you already lost...sry gents. But I am THEE MUSH!!!
     
    BET2WIN4
    BET2WIN4
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 7:02 PM ET #24

    Just dropping my 2 to 3 cents lol..... HOU is the team that not only will beat the Blazers but they will also beat the SPURS!!
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    Just dropping my 2 to 3 cents lol..... HOU is the team that not only will beat the Blazers but they will also beat the SPURS!!
     
     
    GeneCam27
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2014 - 7:58 PM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    Have to disagree with LC here. LC is the master of situational betting but apparently not so much in mathmatical probabilities.

    Shooting efficiency has the highest correlation and predictive value in the playoffs. Advantage Rockets

    Rebound % has a hgher predictive value then total rebounds, but that favors the Blazers, 51.35 to 50.75. Small Advantage Blazers

    The Blazers get more total rebounds but the Rockets out-rebound their opponents by more, 3.67 per game to the Blazers 2.94.

    Getting more rebounds does not nessecarily make you a better rebounding team, it depends how many rebounds your opponent gets.

    Free throws and rebounding  are two  of the most misunderstood of stats.

     Getting to the line more often has a higher correlation to victory than FT %.

    When a team gets to the line more often that means their opp takes a shot from the field.

    Even Howard shooting 54.7% from the line will easily out-shoot any team in the league , EVEN THE BEST SHOOTING TEAM WHICH PORTLAND IS FAR FROM  from the field when you factor-in TO'S.

    Blazers taken  about 104 more FT's then opp.

    Rockets taken more than 700 more then opp,  advantage Rockets.

    From a mathmatical probabilities point of view, it's all Rockets in this series.

    This aint a situational its the playoffs...... this is match ups dude. 

    Houston is deeper and more talented. Better ROSTER and they play BETTER DEFENSE. Portland PLAYS ZERO defense. This series will be over in 6. Houston matches up with them very well. 

    Harden will get the line at will because hes gonna drive or hes gonna kick out..... the lack of a point guard in houston is not that big of a deal since they run their offense through harden a lot.... they also run through dwight and Parson can also pass very well. They have better overall shooters on their crew. 

    Dwight and harden are top 10 players. That kid beverley will be pest for lillard. Portland will be in this early.... they will be up their behind.... and then they'll fall apart. Houston will be a problem for the spurs to deal with. 

    This is the easiest lock -200 series line on the rockets. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    Have to disagree with LC here. LC is the master of situational betting but apparently not so much in mathmatical probabilities.

    Shooting efficiency has the highest correlation and predictive value in the playoffs. Advantage Rockets

    Rebound % has a hgher predictive value then total rebounds, but that favors the Blazers, 51.35 to 50.75. Small Advantage Blazers

    The Blazers get more total rebounds but the Rockets out-rebound their opponents by more, 3.67 per game to the Blazers 2.94.

    Getting more rebounds does not nessecarily make you a better rebounding team, it depends how many rebounds your opponent gets.

    Free throws and rebounding  are two  of the most misunderstood of stats.

     Getting to the line more often has a higher correlation to victory than FT %.

    When a team gets to the line more often that means their opp takes a shot from the field.

    Even Howard shooting 54.7% from the line will easily out-shoot any team in the league , EVEN THE BEST SHOOTING TEAM WHICH PORTLAND IS FAR FROM  from the field when you factor-in TO'S.

    Blazers taken  about 104 more FT's then opp.

    Rockets taken more than 700 more then opp,  advantage Rockets.

    From a mathmatical probabilities point of view, it's all Rockets in this series.

    This aint a situational its the playoffs...... this is match ups dude. 

    Houston is deeper and more talented. Better ROSTER and they play BETTER DEFENSE. Portland PLAYS ZERO defense. This series will be over in 6. Houston matches up with them very well. 

    Harden will get the line at will because hes gonna drive or hes gonna kick out..... the lack of a point guard in houston is not that big of a deal since they run their offense through harden a lot.... they also run through dwight and Parson can also pass very well. They have better overall shooters on their crew. 

    Dwight and harden are top 10 players. That kid beverley will be pest for lillard. Portland will be in this early.... they will be up their behind.... and then they'll fall apart. Houston will be a problem for the spurs to deal with. 

    This is the easiest lock -200 series line on the rockets. 
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