Taking a Big Favorite down a lot of points 2nd Half Strategy

Does anyone here do this?  For example, say for a game there is a team that is favored by 10 points for the game.  And at the end of the first half, they are down by some ridiculous number of points, say like 15 points. 

Obviously 2nd half, they will be giving a lot of points.  Lets say its 9.5.  So basically the full game is now the under laying 5.5 for the game as oppose to getting 10 points which is like a 15.5 point differential.  You can use another example like a team is laying 7 points for the game and is down 8 points at end of first half.  Then the 2nd half line is that team -8 or 9, basically making the game pickem for the full game.

Is it me, or does it seem like taking a team that is heavily favored in the 2nd half b/c they are down a lot of points at end of 1st half a good idea?  I mean, rarely will that team just not make some sort of comeback and make it respectable.  And if you do take that team is up say 15 points at end of 1st half and getting say 9.5 in the 2nd half, you are hoping this 10 point underdog for the full game covers 5.5.

What i notice is rarely do teams just lay down if they are heavily favored.  I mean, once the game goes to a tie game in the 4th quarter, its just really hard for that underdog for the full game to even WIN THE GAME... let alone cover 5.5 points if you get what i mean.

Does anyone have stats on this for the 2nd half?  I also seen stuff like a team laying 7 points and then have some ridiculous halftime lead, like 22 points.  Then for 2nd half, the other team might be -2 or so, so name full game is now that favorite -20 instead of -7.  Is it me, or is taking that team +2 for 2nd half really ridiciouls because you are hoping that team covers 20 points.  I mean, many times teams give up leads and they could not even cover for the full game!

Thoughts on this strategy?  There are 2 ones here of course.  The big favorite laying a lot of points but down a lot at the half and of course a team that is favored by has a HUGE lead at the half.  Like -2 for the game but up 20 points at the half.  So situations like this, 2nd half would be losing team - points but they would be at least +14 for the full game usually.

Thoughts?

Anyone?

Like with any play, selectivity is the key .. A lot of the time the 2nd half line can tell you a lot

I would ask that airent777 guy, he always seems to be +units

to summarize what you said, If a team is favor by a lot -8 or so is it good stradagy to bet on them if they are down at the half by a lot. THE ANSWER IS YES AND EVEN A BIGGER YES IF THEY ARE AT HOME. I DONT HAVE STATS BUT THIS IS CLEARLY A GREAT VALUE PLAY

its situational, wish there was a clearcut answer to any of this but i personally love takin a team that was dogs gettin a bunch o points in the 2nd after they whopped em in the 1st.  almost never take the fav in that sit

Fuck if any of it makes any sense to me, bro.  I've been banging my head against the wall for YEARS trying to find the key to unlocking the mystery of beating 2nd half NBA lines.

A huge favorite is down big at halftime. I take the dog +9 and the favorite has the game tied by the start of the 4th quarter.

Then another night, a huge favorite is down big at halftime again, and I take them -9, figuring they'll come back.  Sure enough, they continue taking the night off, and the underdog wins comfortably.

It's really a very frustrating thing.

You really have to take it on a game-by-game basis.  In other words, no rules that are set in stone.  Also, I would advise only trying it with games you have been watching.  You'll have a better feel for the flow of the game.  And you'll know if someone got injured.  No worse feeling than taking a team for the 2H, and then you find out that their star player got hurt in the first half.

I've played a few of these after the 1st half where I was SURE the team would rebound because the line gave so much of an advantage, lightyears better than the original line.. and still the team just sucks in the 2nd half like they did in the 1st half.

Does anyone have the w/l record of any kind of example i mentioned?  LIke what would be the w/l record if you always take the 2nd half team where it would get a better line for the full game?  Of course, they are down points which is the reason.

Like if a team is favored by 1 point and is up by 12 at the half.  Then the other team is -2 for 2nd half, which makes it the favored -1 team to be -10 for the full game... which is a 9 point differential from the full game line. 

I seen games where a team maybe favored by 12 points but could be up 25 at the half.  Then 2nd half, they are favored by 1 point so now its -26 for the full game which is a 14 point differential from the full game line. 

Does anyone have the w/l record of taking the team in the 2nd half where they would get a better line for the full game?  Really curuious about this.  I would assume its pretty close to 50 percent since if you bet the strategy i mentioned and it kept winning, then books would lose but obviously they don't. 

I seen games where a team might be -5 for the game and be up by 3 at the half.  And then favored by exactly 2 which makes them -5 for full game which means you can bet on any of the 2 team and basically have the same betting ticket as the person who bet before the game.  That wouldn't count though since it would be same bet as pregame.  And of cousre you have examples like a team being favored by 10 points and up say 7 points at 1st half.  Then be -4.5 for 2nd half and full game would be -11.5 which isn't that far off from 10.  However, if you take the +4.5, you are getting +11.5 for the game as oppose to the person who bet that losing team +10 for game.

Anyone have stats on this?

I assume its damn close near 50%?

Then you have games like last night... Phoenix is KILLING Milwaukee at halftime (@ MILW).... the Bucks look completely disinterested.  I take the Suns +9 for the 2H. 

Needless to say, Phoenix went about six minutes without scoring and MILW covered the second half with ease, and almost won.

I won't rest until I find the magic formula to this shit.

Portland just lost the second half and it fits your scenerio.

Sal-Tessio.  I wouldn't dare take Phoenix +9 for the 2nd half whether i bet this game or not.  My reasoning is this.  Phoenix is up 17 points.  So 2nd half they are getting 9 points which is a lot.  However, that means you are betting Phoenix -8 for the game.  To me, this is basically hoping Milwaukee doesn't make a comeback at home when down by 17 at the half.

Now, Bucks are favored by 8 for the game so anyone that bet phoenix for game got them +8 but now if you bet them +9 2nd half, you are getting phoenix -8.  To be honest, I would never bet that because if milwaukee makes any kind of run and gets it close and even tie it, your phoenix -8 bet is going to be no good.

I mean, as disinterested as bucks looked... it would be very hard for phoenix to blow the bucks out by 30+ points, you knwo what i mean?  So its going to be at least somewhat respectable. 

Now if you take bucks -9 2nd half... you are getting them +8 for the game.  That compared if you bet them pregame and got them -8.  I mean, to me, chances of phoenix winning by at least 9 is very hard and doesn't feel like its 50/50 to me.  I feel like the Bucks -9 2nd half should be an autobet.  However, if they are down by 9 and giving 9, then it doesn't feel that great.  But the fact they were down by SOOOO MUCH, makes them getting +8 so good if you get what i mean.

Thoughts?

Yep, I took HOU +8.5.

Sometimes you win a bet when you're on the wrong side.  Portland came all the way back from 14 points down at the half to tie it up, but they ran out of gas.

Yes portland lost.  They were -8.5 so it made them +5.5 for the full game.  They had it tied at one point and if i took houston +8.5, my 2nd half bet would not make me feel good at all.... does that make sense?

The thing is so many times, the team who is favored makes some kind of comeback.  Rarely do they act disinterested and lose the game by a lot.  For example, portland down 14 at half but what was the chance they get beat by 20+?  Its very little.  At least if you take portland, you know it will be somewhat respectable near the end.  Sure they lost but they failed to cover by 1.5 points.  Consider the other times they tie game before end of 3rd quarter and even cover the full game spread.  I seen this so much.

I understand the mathematics of it perfectly, but it's not always that simple.  If it were, we'd all be rich.  Portland fell into the EXACT same situation tonight that Milwaukee was in last night, and they didn't cover the 2H.

I think figuring out which team has the psychological edge to play hard in the 2H is the huge key.

I'm not sure why you're looking for opinions.  You seem to have it all figured out.

Take every big favorite in the 2H when they are trailing big at halftime.

Make sure to report back with your findings. 

Actually i thought about this a while ago.  However, i never tracked the win/loss record of it for 2nd half.

Wanted to know if anyone has the W/L record of it.

I have try this many times, and it works better in College Hoop, not as good in the NBA. Its about 60% in college and only less than 50% in pro.

If those numbers are true, it's not surprising.  Guys in the NBA play a killer schedule - especially this season - and they are getting big bucks whether they bust their ass to make a comeback or not.  It's not like in college, where you may be playing a big rival, and the coach just ripped everyone a new asshole at halftime.

Again, I believe you have to figure out the psychology of who WANTS to play.

I agree you have to look at the situation, how many points they down by and what is the spread at halftime. Watching the game is better because you do get the flow of the game. Like are they just tired, is the other team shots just going down no matter what, or they just been getting easy baskets. But with no stats to back it up If the team is Favor big like Miami and they are playing at home lets say vs Pho and they go down by 12 at halftime and the spread at halftime is -9 Miami you take MIAMI. THIS WAGER WOULD HAVE GREAT VALUE. Even if you lose at least you know you made the correct bet and it just didn't go your way,

vegas-angle.... are you just estimating its 60% in college hoops?  Or do you actually have numbers to prove it?  I mean, i say taking a huge favorite down a lot at 1st half seems very good but i know truth is, its probably damn close to 50%.  I can't imagine it being anywhere near to 60% in ncaab b/c if it was, then everyone would do it this way and make money.

Anyone here actually have this in a spreadsheet to prove it?

That's an important point... the one I bolded.

If a team is throwing up 3's from everywhere and just draining the piss out of them, that is highly unlikely to continue.  I also look at turnovers, personal fouls and free throws in the box score.

If the favorite is turning the ball over a lot, you can assume the coach is going to tell them to knock that shit off.  Also, if the underdog has a lot of fouls, that's good.  Their stars could be in foul trouble down the stretch.  Lastly, if the favorite has a decided advantage in rebounds and FT opportunities, that's typically a good sign that the underdog's lead won't hold up.  That tells me that the favorite is owning the paint.

this is not a sure thing, and as the other poster mentioned, if it was then we'd all be rich. take a look at milwaukee@toronto today line was bucks-1.5 before the game (almost a toss up) then at the half bucks are up by 7, and 2ndhalf line is bucks+1, it's like bucks-6 for the game, at that situation, would you bet the hometeam craptors? anyway, it ended bucks winning by 6, making the 2nd half a push, but my point is, nothing is sure. 

I remember years ago someone came up with a formula to play the second half and it worked pretty good but nothing for NBA second half. I lost a ton of money on the second half and I now realize that in order to win in the second half you have to forget about what you have the whole game or else it would interefer with your thinking. A small tip is try to compare Pinnacle's line with others. Pinnacle's second half line is very strong. For example if other Casino is -4 and Pinnacle is -3.5, take the dog.

anyone else?