Record: 27-27
2017 Playoff Record: 8-2
The Pick:
Raptors +7 over Cavs
That is not me skewing the line. I have not put the bet in yet. I am waiting for 7 because I think it will get there.
Why? Because I think the public got the bejesus scared out of them when they saw the Raps blow a 25 point lead in 12 minutes (and against a 'lowly' Bucks team who is far better than they think). There is no way the Raps will be public favorites here. As tip-off approaches it should get there and if it doesn't I'll spend the -120.
I'll make this quick.
You know how I love fading streaks.
The Raptors have a terrible Game 1 record. In fact, it's so bad, they've never covered one with this core. Starting in 2014 vs. the Nets (the core being Lowry, Derozan and Jonas- Jonas downgraded to a bench player for Powell at times), the Raps are a whopping:
0-6 SU and ATS in Game 1's.
Go look it up.
I hate that. I that that this team continually digs itself a hole which explains why they've only won 2 series with this core.
And that may be my death knell. You have the Cavs coming off significant rest and they may be able to blow out the Raps in a game that the Raps core has demonstrated continually they can't win or cover.
The PROBLEM for the Cavs bettors is the points here. They are significant. 7 (when it gets there is a key number). The Cavs will need to blow the Raps out to cover this number. (Have 12-15 point lead and then the Raps will eventually eat into that an the Cavs close it at 10-12 pt win).
Can the Cavs do that?
Well there are reasons against that.
1. Bob Dole
He ran for President in 1996 vs. Slick Willy. All I heard was two words from prospective voters: He's old. Really? That's it? It's that simple? Yes. It's that simple.
It reminded me of OKC vs. the Spurs last year when OKC bombed them to eliminate them in 6 games and BegginerBoy boiled down an extensive cap before the game to the same two words, "They're (the Spurs are) old".
The Cavs are old and slow footed, particularly on the bench. Deron (on the outs in this league despite contributing something in the first round), Korver, Richard Jefferson! Lebron has played more minutes than anyone EVER at this point in his career at his age.
The Raptors bench of Patterson, Tucker, Jonas (or Powell depending on who sits), Joseph and Wright is a DREAM compared to this. Young, fresh, ready to battle to get inside this number.
That leads to my next point.
2. Lebron averaged 44 minutes in the first round.
The most among any player in the playoffs (and has to be among the most ever excluding OT games. And he delivered 33, 9, 9. BUT his minutes are a clear indication the Cavs have nothing to lean on beyond him. They are deficient in a bench they should have shorn up. They tried to but having Lebron play almost a full 48 is not a winning formula. He needs rest, particularly as a series wears on and as defensive assignments toughen, and they will here.
3. The Cavs Defense...is terrible.
The Cavs allowed 111 points per 100 possessions against the Pacers -- only three teams are worse so far in the playoffs. One of them is Indiana, which is dead last at 115.9. The Cavs' average was 12 points higher per game than the average NBA Finals team allows in first-round series, according to ESPN, and this is the worst defense a team with LeBron James on it has ever played in a playoff series it won.
During the regular season, Cleveland was 22nd in the league, allowing 108 points per 100 possessions. The Pacers shot 46.6 percent in the four-game series. Opponents shot .458 against Cleveland during the regular season.
But it gets worse.
The Raptors specialize in the pick and roll and the Cavs aren't too good at defending that right now, to say the least.
4. The pick and roll
The Cavs were carved up by the Pacers’ middling offense throughout their first-round series, particularly on the pick-and-roll. Cleveland gave up 1.08 points per possession in plays finished by the pick-and-roll ballhandler against Indy, which was tied for the worst mark by any team in the playoffs.
With all due respect to the likes of Paul George, Jeff Teague, and Lance Stephenson, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are much better pick-and-roll players and the Raptors run those plays a lot more frequently. DeRozan and Lowry virtually carried the Raptors offense for long stretches during the regular season on a heavy dose of pick-and-rolls. Toronto was tied for 1st in the NBA during the regular season in points per possession on plays with the pick-and-roll ballhandler.
on the same side
let's get this sh!t
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