Peach Basket and a Dream (February 2024)

YTD: 73-73 +24.87u     

Player Props: 34-40 +11.88u

With 7:14 to spare. Bring on AS weekend 

East +2.5 (-110) 1u

Giannis MVP (+600)0.2u

EAST 

@Fuse

 Ya buddy 

YTD: 74-74 +25.67u     

Player Props: 34-41 +11.68u

Brooklyn Nets +1 (-110)1u

Brooklyn Nets -3 (+125)0.4u

Suns@Mavs o245.0 (-110)1.2u

Luka Doncic o34.5 points (+130)0.8u

GL today 

@Fuse

 Cheers, champion. 

YTD: 75-77 +23.89u     

Player Props: 35-41 +12.72u

Luka saved the night from complete disaster. I have no clue why the Nets fired Vaughan. 

Indiana Pacers +1.5 (-110) 1u

Full disclosure: my numbers have this closer to a 1.5u play and I would normally throw an alt spread in, but I’m sticking with 1u today because a win here sets up beautifully for an even bigger/stronger play tomorrow. 

A situational play has emerged that I was beginning to think might not come about this season.

Two words: Pizza Party.
IYKYK 

Toronto Raptors +6 (-110) 1.5u

Toronto Raptors (+195) 0.4u

BRING ON THE PIZZA PARTY. 

YTD: 78-77 +27.17u     

Player Props: 35-41 +12.72u

PIZZA PARTY

Nothing official for me today, but I lean Mavs and expect Kyrie to have a strong game. 

Adding Futures

To make the playoffs:

Warriors, YES (-115)2u

Kings, NO (+250)0.8u

Will try to get a March thread going tomorrow or some day soon. Don’t really have time today as I want to take stock of futures to start that thread too. 

This Nets team has been breaking my heart since the 30 game mark or so. Hard to tell how much these guys care about trying to overtake the hawks and grab a play in slot, but I have to assume (hope) that either way they show a little more pride tonight. That last game was awful as a team performance and especially bad from their leader Mikal. The nice thing for him in this bounce back spot is that he’s enjoyed a lot of scoring success agains the hawks this year AND they give up the most points to SG in the league. 

The guy is really struggling with his decision making and I expect that the ball will be in Dennis’ hands a lot more, at least to initiate the action. Simplify the game for Bridges because if he’s not scoring and Thomas is out then the game gets really difficult for Brooklyn in a hurry. 

Mikal Bridges o24.5 points (+115) 1u

Dennis Schroder o6.5 assists (+135) 0.8u

YTD: 79-78 +27.25u     

Player Props: 36-42 +12.80u

… Or Cam Johnson could go for a season high. Apart from that, the game unfolded basically as I thought. Bridges had plenty of open shots but just could not get them to fall and as the game went on, they needed him less and less. Honestly, the best path forward for this team is to not rely on him so much for scoring so maybe we will see more of this going forward. 

I had already sort of been thinking this way but I let the Cam Thomas absence skew my thinking. All good. Still a positive night. 

Tiny gains :) 

Early start. Both teams should be motivated to play some D as this is about as important of a game as these guys will get to play this season. #1 scoring option out for both sides plus Nets are missing a key cog in Ben. 

Last but not least we squeaked over 220 last time out and the Nets hit 22 threes. 

Hawks@Nets under 218.5 (-110)1u

YTD: 80-78 +28.25u     

Player Props: 36-42 +12.80u

These Nets are gonna make a believer out of me again. I mean, cough cough, I always believed.  Super happy to win the bet. Maybe even more happy to see them go 2-0 these last two games. Especially today which required a lot more fight than last game. Can they manage 14-8 these last 22? One can hope. At least they have a tangible carrot in front of them now. 

Grizzlies getting over 3 possessions today makes absolutely no sense to me.

Nets just won back to back big games and now they face a team they absolutely embarrassed literally a week ago today. Both had last night off. 4th game in 3 nights for Memphis but both teams have played 3 games since the matchup last Monday and the Nets have Philadelphia coming to town tomorrow (a much stronger opponent with some emotional ties - Simmons, playoff sweep etc). 

Grizz coming off 2 straight losses to Portland. Last game was OT but they had a day of rest in between and I don’t think those extra 5 minutes of fatigue are stronger than the motivation tonight. We shall see. 

No play yet. Gonna investigate some more angles. 

I don’t really want the Nets to lose tonight, but I think it’s very possible and maybe even likely. 

Given my Nets futures, I won’t be betting Grizz ml but there’s a comfy opportunity to try and “middle” of sorts with such a large line. 

Would love to see Memphis keep it close but fall short. Hence

Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 (-110) 1u

FWIW, this would normally be a 2u play with alt spread and ML. 

YTD: 81-78 +29.25u     

Player Props: 36-42 +12.80u

So sad, Brooklyn. Despite the horrible spot, they had every opportunity to walk away with a win tonight and lost it at the free throw line. 4 point loss and 17/30 from the line.

Hopefully this gives us everything we need to back em again tomorrow.

Tonight, we dance… 

Thanks Grizz. Never in doubt. 

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s game, the line is basically a pick ‘em. Screaming for Philly money off 2 straight wins (most recently in Dallas) with Brooklyn falling to Memphis tonight. Nets should get back in the W column real quick. 

Paul Reed and Kris Dunn both catch my eye tonight. The former scoring and the latter with assists. Unfortunately, I don’t have a line for Dunn right now. Hoping he gets announced as the starter and I see a line get added. 

Something really odd about this Orlando@Washington game. These two teams have averaged 253.3 total points in 3 matchups this season. The line for game 1 was 235.5 (259 points), game 2 was 236.5 (255 points), and game 3 was 237.5 (246 points). Both teams are basically healthy and I’m seeing 224 for the total?