OKC @ NY + 4.5 Large Write up

Record stands at 1-0 + 2,000. Minnesota + 3.5 the other day was my first post, outright win there. NY + 4.5 is solid value here. These seems are extremely similar in most metrics up and down the ratings. As anyone that’s ever read my post , it takes me at least 45 minutes to cap a game, win or lose. My raw numbers come up with NY - 0.38, so they should be favs by almost a half pt. NY are 6th league wide allowing pts in the paint on defense. NY allow the 3rd fewest assist on defense. NY grab 13.7 offensive rebounds per game compared to OKC grabbing 9.3 on average, this is where we will gain our ATS cover. NY will get two to four possessions offensively to score pts. OKC’s defense & offense away from home compared to NY’s defensive and offensive efficiency are extremely tight so we have to look at the other variables that will be key differences in this game ( offensive rebounds) will be that difference we need. Also when 2 teams are this close in metrics, I look at the SOS of each team . I grab this data from sites I pay money to yearly. OKC’s true SOS is right around 16th & NY’s is 13th. This might not look like it’s that much of a difference but, believe it’s means a lot when there are only 30 teams in the league. Last 3 games in defensive efficiency, OKC sits at 0.967, NY sits @ 0.948, that’s an edge that will matter over a period of time. Defense always control the tempo in tightly contested games. OKC’s average scoring margin away from home is exceptional @ + 10.3 but, NY are right behind them @ home out scoring opponents by + 9.3. OKC’s defensive scoring margin away is exceptional again @ - 10.3 , but so are NY @ - 9.3. You see it’s a 1 pt difference on both sides and I’m getting 4.5 pts so , I’m + 2.5 ahead of the game before it starts. OKC ATS rating away from home are #12th league wide going 15-14 ( 51.7 % ) compared to NY’s 2nd best ATS record for home teams going 23-8 ( 74.2 % ) this is huge folks. Both teams are on a back to back but, we are getting +4.5 pts with the 2nd best home rated power team league wide. OKC are 2-8 ATS in the 2nd game of back to back away from home, where NY are 5-5 ATS. OKC are 12-13 ATS away from home vs teams that win more than 55% of their games, where is NY are 17-13 ATS same scenario. NY are 2-0 this season ATS as a home dog as well. OKC are the champs folks, you don’t think that NY has had this game circled all year long. Give me NY + 4.5 3450/3000 GL to all. 

I was thinking NY ML as well

BOL

@lik122

 I’m going to put a small ML bet & small under the total bet in as well. GL

Always tough to bet against the champs but I think Brunson and company will hang around , let’s get this 

@lik122

 No doubt  

how do you figure NYK should be a favorite with OKC best players returning and Robinson/McBride out? Did you look at rotowire for injuries?

@Badluck3

 I see just about everything, I look at injuries before I start capping in every sport. J. Will is also out for OKC, as well as Mitchell. 

Part sounds appealing is NY has this game circled. Sounds good. As long as OKC doesn’t have it circled too. NYK been whipping em all lately and I have been against em. Let’s get with em and join em.

cmon Knicks! Good info Rolex! 
by the way - may I ask what’s the meaning of rolexsports handle? Do you have a sweet watch collection or do you consider your sports top of the line like Rolex?

@Logic123

 It’ll be a playoff type atmosphere tonight and tight all the way through. Knicks will definitely bring their A game tonight. Vets vs youngsters, give me the vets all day long. 
To answer your question. Both , I own a few very nice watches and I do believe my capping is top notch. GL to us tonight 

@Rolexsports

Lets Go! BOL to you tonight!   

@Jars

 Thanks man , can’t wait to see this one! 

This game is pretty much almost like and nba final for knicks. And great test for them to go against last year champ while fighting for moving up a spot in this tight spot in the east.

@kings_duce

 You are absolutely correct. MSG will be extremely loud tonight.

A very long write-up just to take a L.

OKC-4.5=EASY MONEY

@kidd22

 Thanks 22 

@SUREPICKS101

 Mule. 

Bol to your play my friend

Long write-up won’t magically make your nyk+4.5 a winner. Lol.

Only fools will bet against a fresh SGA easy

@vankiep_0007

 Thanks bro , hope all is well with you and your family. 

@SUREPICKS101

 Lets hear your angle vs your baseless claims just to be a contrarian  ...go on

AM I crazy ?  i like the knicks to the win 

BOL 

Sounds good ... but I rarely side with the LIVE HOME DOG such as the Knicks 

Strangely, I would take the Knicks at +2 but will be on the sideline with +4.5

Good luck with your bet