Record stands at 1-0 + 2,000. Minnesota + 3.5 the other day was my first post, outright win there. NY + 4.5 is solid value here. These seems are extremely similar in most metrics up and down the ratings. As anyone that’s ever read my post , it takes me at least 45 minutes to cap a game, win or lose. My raw numbers come up with NY - 0.38, so they should be favs by almost a half pt. NY are 6th league wide allowing pts in the paint on defense. NY allow the 3rd fewest assist on defense. NY grab 13.7 offensive rebounds per game compared to OKC grabbing 9.3 on average, this is where we will gain our ATS cover. NY will get two to four possessions offensively to score pts. OKC’s defense & offense away from home compared to NY’s defensive and offensive efficiency are extremely tight so we have to look at the other variables that will be key differences in this game ( offensive rebounds) will be that difference we need. Also when 2 teams are this close in metrics, I look at the SOS of each team . I grab this data from sites I pay money to yearly. OKC’s true SOS is right around 16th & NY’s is 13th. This might not look like it’s that much of a difference but, believe it’s means a lot when there are only 30 teams in the league. Last 3 games in defensive efficiency, OKC sits at 0.967, NY sits @ 0.948, that’s an edge that will matter over a period of time. Defense always control the tempo in tightly contested games. OKC’s average scoring margin away from home is exceptional @ + 10.3 but, NY are right behind them @ home out scoring opponents by + 9.3. OKC’s defensive scoring margin away is exceptional again @ - 10.3 , but so are NY @ - 9.3. You see it’s a 1 pt difference on both sides and I’m getting 4.5 pts so , I’m + 2.5 ahead of the game before it starts. OKC ATS rating away from home are #12th league wide going 15-14 ( 51.7 % ) compared to NY’s 2nd best ATS record for home teams going 23-8 ( 74.2 % ) this is huge folks. Both teams are on a back to back but, we are getting +4.5 pts with the 2nd best home rated power team league wide. OKC are 2-8 ATS in the 2nd game of back to back away from home, where NY are 5-5 ATS. OKC are 12-13 ATS away from home vs teams that win more than 55% of their games, where is NY are 17-13 ATS same scenario. NY are 2-0 this season ATS as a home dog as well. OKC are the champs folks, you don’t think that NY has had this game circled all year long. Give me NY + 4.5 3450/3000 GL to all.
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