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#1
The total is at 205.5 currently.
Some Nets trends:
1. 23 of New Jersey's 26 home games have gone under this total, in regulation play.
2. 28 of their 32 games against the East have gone under this total, in regulation.
3.17 of 18 of the Nets home games against the East have gone under this total, in regulation.
3. 11 of the 13 Nets B2B latter games have also gone under this number, in regulation.
The Knicks are unquestionably a terrible defensive team, giving up the 2nd most points in the league. To wager an under with the Knicks, I feel it is important to look at their opponents' offensive ability.
2 of the best markers of offensive output are PPS(points per shot) and AFG(adjusted field goal %).
The bottom teams in the Eastern conference in both categories are virtually identical(Tor,Ind,Det,Char,Wash,NJ,Cleve,Milw).
The Knicks do not play as well offensively on the road against East opponents. They average only 100.6 ppg compared to their normal of 106.3. It is telling when looking at the Knicks road games specifically against these offensively challenged squads: They are 1-6 against this total when playing these East teams on the road.
The average total in these 7 games has been 196.3, in regulation.
The Nets are a respectable .500 at home this season and know that they cannot win a shootout with the Knicks. I look for a typical Nets slower tempo and fatigue in the 2nd half to keep this overall game total low.
I am on the under 205.5. Good luck.
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