NBA Wednesday

Quick question: As I was trying to find all your picks to see how you are picking your games, I found that since 27 January until today you have posted a total of 7 picks. That is 7 picks in 14 days. 

He counts his live plays too. That tends to be 2 or more picks on a single game and tend to get posted within his threads.

Oh, got it. 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA SMART BETS !!!!!!

GOOD F'IN JOB MATE!

you know what i do when i am 90% sure of a bet?


i do THIS


now thats what i call smart bet.

WTF

damn this thread is getting clogged, any game you might be on tongiht sb?? 

and what about 2night?

It's time to let this thread end. I do want to answer you because I don't want you to think I put you on ignore.

I tried explaining this on one of the previous pages, but it goes like this.

In a nutshell, I had this having a very high % chance of covering.

So this game started out as a higher graded play. Once I factored in both teams venue bias, meaning how good Philly was at home, and how the Spurs had been on the road, I downgraded it to a 1u play.

So if you really want to word it differently, I could've said. I felt this play had a 9 out of 10 chance of hitting, once I factored in the venue bias you could say 6.5-7/10.

And there was a little bit of me being conservative for money management. I'm trying to get to 100 and I didn't wanna go all in on a 4-5u play in a situation on a road team who had same big time issues, vs a home team who has been killing it.

I do things differently than most and I don't have any issues with explaining how I do it. This really is the best that I can explain it.

I hope this helps,

Ok so based on saying that, the reality is you only gave it a 65%-70% chance.  I mean you did factor it in and it did become part of capping and the END result was the 65-70%  Either way that is a very high percentage and to me would justify more units if you play the multi unit gig. 

I really dont have a problem at all with how you do things.  I was just trying to make the point that Kapono and others where correct to question you based on the info you gave us.  90% should never equal 1 unit if you play 1-5 units.  Obviously we are reading too much into this and you are not which is fine.  I am just trying to determine who knows what the fuck they are talking about.  I think you do but I really do but sounds kinda dumb when you say 90% but only 1 unit.  You definitely contradict yourself with that one..

Thanks for the explanation.

One other point....  its like saying this...

I determined the Pistons have a 90% chance of winning by my first process of capping.  Then I capped they actually had to play a team then the odds dropped to 15%. 

You really where never at 90% because your capping was not completed.  Once again no hate, just explaining how you related the message.

Keep up the good work.  You can say whatever you want. All I know is you have been making me some good coin.

Thanks again