NBA Thread- Are you feeling

I will start a new Thread and keep this all here. Apologies in advance for the double post.

Sorry fellas I realized if I was going to make the spreadsheet available it needed some clean up and reference material to understand my logic.

My model predicts the line. If the line is off, the system takes the play. What I have discovered is that if the line is off by less than 1 point. The system still plays but that is where the majority of the losses come from. The highest win rate is on the plays I call WTF. Wrong Team Favored. I have questioned some of the plays, but that is my human emotion taking over and that is the reason I built the model in the first place. 

For today I am waiting until closer to tip off. 

I have locked in the only WTF (wrong team favored) Played plus the points and a ML sprinkle +145

HOU +4.5

There has been a major line move. MIL opened at -11-110 and since moved to -8-115 which comes inline with my -7.4 prediction. UTA would have been a play. My Book was not available when the line was -11

I will fix a few things with the spread sheet and share when complete.

Man, covers will not let me post any part of the sheet without distorting the piss out of it. 

Any advice other than the share link would be helpful.

My Proj Lines

CHC -6.4

BOS -9.2 (possible play)

OKC -15.2 (possible play)

HOU -.3 (WTF) ONLY PLAY SO FAR

MIL -7.4

LAC -3.3 (Lean PHO + points)

System record 12-5

Posted Plays 2-0

WTF 2-0

Proj Line within 1 Pt. of Actual Line 2-3

 Thank you.

Good job 1TL1.

Interesting stuff

LV whats up brotha

you have been crushing it in cbb, thank you!

my system used to work well back in the day with college. its trash as it sits. need to tinker. 

it seems to be working here in nba so far, but a short sample size

if I post them, it forces me to keep up on the spread sheet. my gambling new years resolution.  stay accountable

if not i just degen off, spend the loot then wonder how much and where did it go

glad to see you are still crushing it 

gl and get that loot

I preface by saying 

great system great results 

how you figure The Rockets should

be road favs vs the heat ??

you lost me there . 

@Jerseyshore88

 its just numbers brotha

I posted them for you to see. There are some pretty big discrepancies  if you look.

Use the numbers the way you see fit. There are other models that predict price. This one is mine.

I built a system that rates players, therefore teams. It gives a number.

 And yes, home court is included.

Those numbers get updated after each game. I have my lines before most places post their openers. 

From those numbers I have found a few patterns.  

it is 15-5 against all line discrepancies 

3 L's came from lines within 1 point of posted line. No edge there.

The plays I have posted have pointed out where projected lines has the wrong team is favored.

I have posted 2 plays. These I call the WTF wrong team favored.

1. Atl open -1.5 vs orl line moved to 2.5 proj line had orl the fav. orl win by 7

2. Sac open -3.5 vs NOP line moved to -4.5 proj line had NOP -2.3 NOP win by 33

 So far the Ws have the lead 

If it loses promise to remind me later 

It will take Ls my man and I am prepared for the consequences

gamble responsibly *this message brought to you from 1 Time Lucky

This time and every time!

GL with your plays

*correction 

system is 12-5 not 15-5