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NBA SAT 030709 early thoughts - value hunting

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by ThePatriot:

in this thread we only speak of UNDER!! never the o word lol. but yeah thanks axpiota59, brother for last night! cant wait to see for today, what do you have locked right now?
 

thanks homie...i've locked in but the damn lines moved on us overnight (not the same value if I posted now)...i'm looking for value with the current lines
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:

tboss20 and forty7, 
I was just going over some old post...always looking for an edge and angle.  I realized you two have been with me for a while...damn, thanks for the support during this HUGE run.  You two must be rich by now. 

Thanks to WBA's daily NBA thread, your thought process and mine were right in line on most games. Just a natural gravitation, bud. But like you've always said, we're essentially just guessing right ?   We're in it for the long haul, and I've learned from my earlier days to avoid guys like Stu Feiner, Mike Warren and Jim Feist for cappin' advice. Done much better going with my own stats/knowledge, and finding some form of validation from other good cappers such as yourself.

I know which Arnie (stinkin' genius) you're talkin' about. Heard him 1st time back in the day on One-on-One Sports, before it became SNR. The guy was and is hilarious. Good stuff.

Tend to agree w/you on Minn/Port. Down to 199 w/ my book. But I still feel good about that going under. That and the Indy/LAC game appear to have the best "value's" for going under - everything else has dropped too far.  I agree w/ Hank that the Mia/Clev game may be a good play, but the line is up to 191.5 now. Still lookin' at that one a bit closer.  

 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by JaySmooth:

"
#44
Posted: 3/7/2009 10:42:47 AM
For those looking to play MIA/CLE

run this:

team=Cavaliers and site=home and date>20090201

simple but straight to the point for the best defensive team in the NBA"
 
 
Ax and Hank, I've just gotta ask about your system and how you are doing it. I've been following you both for a couple of weeks and you guys are great doing all this to help out one another. The numbers you are crunching are legit! I've never believe that these sites would have guys like you that would help out others out with some picks. I've heard scam threads posting "free picks or pay for lock picks" that it was all set up by vegas to get you to make picks that aren't even locks.
 
I really wanted to let you know that I really appreciate your work and help. I would love to figure out how your system works or if you use some kind of fomula that could be explain that way I can start capping like you and helping others that stuggle as well.

Thank you...I'm just your average everyday player and I DO NOT have a system...I have a capping routine.  this thread isn't a tout or nor do i intend anyone to tail my own plays.  we trade ideas here and after some back and forth, you guys help me pick a few games and we all cash in.  welcome and GL...
 
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Posted: #54
what games have you locked in homie?
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by t20boss:

Thanks to WBA's daily NBA thread, your thought process and mine were right in line on most games. Just a natural gravitation, bud. But like you've always said, we're essentially just guessing right ?   We're in it for the long haul, and I've learned from my earlier days to avoid guys like Stu Feiner, Mike Warren and Jim Feist for cappin' advice. Done much better going with my own stats/knowledge, and finding some form of validation from other good cappers such as yourself.

I know which Arnie (stinkin' genius) you're talkin' about. Heard him 1st time back in the day on One-on-One Sports, before it became SNR. The guy was and is hilarious. Good stuff.

Tend to agree w/you on Minn/Port. Down to 199 w/ my book. But I still feel good about that going under. That and the Indy/LAC game appear to have the best "value's" for going under - everything else has dropped too far.  I agree w/ Hank that the Mia/Clev game may be a good play, but the line is up to 191.5 now. Still lookin' at that one a bit closer.  


Damn...we go way back...there were nights I was punching my dashboard cause Arnie pissed me off and then the next minute, I'd be laughing my ass off.  
Love those first two plays but the MIA/CLE game I capped @188.  Hank and I were off large with this one.  
Sorry Hank...I missed your post this morning...I had a ton of crap I had to do.


 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by ThePatriot:

what games have you locked in homie?

I locked in too good to be true @ 222 and the out of whack McHale's crew playing a better defensive team than the LakeShow and not so good offensive threat Blazers @202.  I loved both of these when they came out.

May not be close to these numbers now but there are still some value on the board.
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by proguy747:

starting to reconsider miami cavs being over. 

did you get a chance to run the query I posted proguy?  This is a stay away game for me.
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by corndogking:

How much do you consider the referee's tendencies when looking for an under spot? (provided ref info is known beforehand)
Not a huge factor but I do look.
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Flipside715:

damn ax, only if i listened to your picks last night, i woulda banked more...

i only took the cavs/celtics over and the spurs/wiz under

for today tho...LOCKDOWNNNN pick for now is over on the bobcats @ knicks 206

charlotte's tired legs playing off a b2b should benefit knicks run n' gun style and nate robinson's back....the cats should still put up points since the knicks are statues on defense (knicks gave up at least 105 pts, the last 6 games)

We don't use that 'O' word around here LOL, but when I looked at that game, it was looking that way.  I trended this with both teams and seeing conflicting trends.  Coupled with me capping this game @ 208 and really some inconsitent performances from both teams...I'm going for other options.
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


I locked in too good to be true @ 222 and the out of whack McHale's crew playing a better defensive team than the LakeShow and not so good offensive threat Blazers @202.  I loved both of these when they came out.

May not be close to these numbers now but there are still some value on the board.


two games i locked in when did my analysis this morning. i am now more confident that you are going with this two. 
 
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Posted: #61
hey ax i just started following your picks yesterday good job on them. My book has portland/minn at 199 do you think i should play that or maybe buy points
 
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Posted: #62
Turc...the only problem I have with MIN/POR...the public and the money ...well...we're all in brother.  GS/MIL...public on the over but the number is going the other direction.  We're with the smart money.  BOL 
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by rms8325:

hey ax i just started following your picks yesterday good job on them. My book has portland/minn at 199 do you think i should play that or maybe buy points

I'm really not a big fan of buying points...it's artificial value.  In the long run, it's been mathematically proven that it's a losing strategy.  That's just me though...with that said...199 is no value IMHO.  Check out GS/MIL or  IND/LAC...you may find some value .  GL 
 
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Posted: #64
thanks for your help
 
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Posted: #65
Thanks for everything.
 
I was on Portland first thing this AM, I hate going with the public, but i hate more not following my gut.  I am excited aboy both of these plays!!!.
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by Forty7:

Thanks for everything.
 
I was on Portland first thing this AM, I hate going with the public, but i hate more not following my gut.  I am excited aboy both of these plays!!!.

Thank you pal...love exchanging ideas...GL..


My 5 dogs are calling...time to get back to house and family responsibilities...catch y'all around gametime...


 
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Posted: #67
Hey Ax, sorry if I missed it, but do you have any plays today?  I see a bunch of leans...I'm liking the GSW under.
 
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Posted: #68
 
 
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Posted: #70
axpiota what time will you post your final card??
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:

Thank you sir. 
 
Thank you as well very much!!!!! been reading what you got to say and its been great keep up the good work
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


Thank you...I'm just your average everyday player and I DO NOT have a system...I have a capping routine.  this thread isn't a tout or nor do i intend anyone to tail my own plays.  we trade ideas here and after some back and forth, you guys help me pick a few games and we all cash in.  welcome and GL...

Man i like this guy he's smart and he keep's it rea !!!!!
 
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Posted: #73
I believe he'll be back - he is prob. quite busy - FYI
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by LFTNUT:

team=Cavaliers and site=home and date>20090201

not to sound stupid or anything. what dat mean?
 
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by Deezy135:

 

Sportsdatabase.com a payed stats cruncher site that allows you to come up w/ these #s

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