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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    NBA picks, Thursday, October 30, 2014

    «First Previous 12
    kaponofor3
    alldub
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    kaponofor3
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 5:06 PM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by Betbychoice:

    Love the game and love to see actually words, reasoning an d insight instead of a handshake and a smiling face.

    1. Folks will disagree about that..Kobe is coming back after a long layoff so the expectation is he will be rusty. Players are hurt. Hard for  a  team to start this way and gel right away. Lot of pieces to put in place. I will tell you this kobe is a player and will play his heart out. They will play much better give it sometime.

    2. Agree

    3. Charlotte needed to wake up and glad they did in the 2nd half. Bucks got guys who can score but d not so. Better angle on them would be looking at the overs.

    4. Not sold on Minn yet.

    5. The Twins play, the more minutes they get the better they will be. The remind me of two old players who were not twins but had the same last name. The Davis boys who played with Miller in Indy.



    Unless you (the royal "you") are in a very select group of posters, picks without analysis does me no good. I like to talk out my ideas when I have time, which unfortunately isn't always the case with my job, but when I do I like to expound a bit.

    My thoughts on LAL's atrociousness has nothing to do with Kobe -- in fact, its really an opinion in spite of my respect for Kobe and his drive. That's how bad of a situation it is -- even with him, they still will be really, really, really bad, especially on the defensive end of the floor. That won't change in my mind because its solely a personnel issue as opposed to a scheme or cohesiveness issue.

    Antonio Davis and Dale Davis were probably the last true "enforcer" duo in the league


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    Quote Originally Posted by Betbychoice:

    Love the game and love to see actually words, reasoning an d insight instead of a handshake and a smiling face.

    1. Folks will disagree about that..Kobe is coming back after a long layoff so the expectation is he will be rusty. Players are hurt. Hard for  a  team to start this way and gel right away. Lot of pieces to put in place. I will tell you this kobe is a player and will play his heart out. They will play much better give it sometime.

    2. Agree

    3. Charlotte needed to wake up and glad they did in the 2nd half. Bucks got guys who can score but d not so. Better angle on them would be looking at the overs.

    4. Not sold on Minn yet.

    5. The Twins play, the more minutes they get the better they will be. The remind me of two old players who were not twins but had the same last name. The Davis boys who played with Miller in Indy.



    Unless you (the royal "you") are in a very select group of posters, picks without analysis does me no good. I like to talk out my ideas when I have time, which unfortunately isn't always the case with my job, but when I do I like to expound a bit.

    My thoughts on LAL's atrociousness has nothing to do with Kobe -- in fact, its really an opinion in spite of my respect for Kobe and his drive. That's how bad of a situation it is -- even with him, they still will be really, really, really bad, especially on the defensive end of the floor. That won't change in my mind because its solely a personnel issue as opposed to a scheme or cohesiveness issue.

    Antonio Davis and Dale Davis were probably the last true "enforcer" duo in the league


     
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 5:09 PM ET #27

    Quote Originally Posted by Trucifer:


    Thanks for the quick response.  Maybe I should just start doing full games, I'm 3-5 this season so far, only played the HOU/UTA game last night and played for 2 units (Down $165) right now, trying to play catch up but not sure if 1Q 1H TT bets are the right decision...

    I just wanted your thoughts on OKC with Westbrook being their showrunner ATM.


    You're going to be hard pressed to find a bigger Westbrook fan than me (hell I took him to win the scoring title this year). I watched every single game he played in college due to my UCLA connections. He is a freak player but he can't do it on his own. OKC is in trouble without a second banana for him, and Perry Jones III isn't gonna cut it. For now, I'd make sure you incorporate that knowledge into trying to figure out how games will play out personally. I avoid the smaller bets (1Q, 1H, etc.) because, in my mind at least, you are more at mercy to the variance in those situations than in full game situations.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trucifer:


    Thanks for the quick response.  Maybe I should just start doing full games, I'm 3-5 this season so far, only played the HOU/UTA game last night and played for 2 units (Down $165) right now, trying to play catch up but not sure if 1Q 1H TT bets are the right decision...

    I just wanted your thoughts on OKC with Westbrook being their showrunner ATM.


    You're going to be hard pressed to find a bigger Westbrook fan than me (hell I took him to win the scoring title this year). I watched every single game he played in college due to my UCLA connections. He is a freak player but he can't do it on his own. OKC is in trouble without a second banana for him, and Perry Jones III isn't gonna cut it. For now, I'd make sure you incorporate that knowledge into trying to figure out how games will play out personally. I avoid the smaller bets (1Q, 1H, etc.) because, in my mind at least, you are more at mercy to the variance in those situations than in full game situations.
     
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 5:30 PM ET #28

    One thing to keep an eye on here fellas -- anyone seen one posted play taking the Knicks tonight?

    Buyer beware on Cleveland.


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    One thing to keep an eye on here fellas -- anyone seen one posted play taking the Knicks tonight?

    Buyer beware on Cleveland.


     
    alldub
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 5:37 PM ET #29

    good luck tonight bud
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    good luck tonight bud
     
    Rockstar
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 5:46 PM ET #30

    You make some seriously solid points there bro.
    Appreciate ur postings.

    BOL with the plays
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    You make some seriously solid points there bro.
    Appreciate ur postings.

    BOL with the plays
     
    Tomslippers
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 6:19 PM ET #31

    GL
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    GL
     
    3BallBomber
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 6:48 PM ET #32

    Get 'em today Kap
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    Get 'em today Kap
     
    scalabrine
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 6:53 PM ET #33

    Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



    I was kinda waiting for this question. For me its somewhat of a situational lean but the more I look at it, the more I probably pass. Normally I would be all over the Knicks here but they have their own problems and adjustments they have to make, but they are not as bad as the Bulls made them look last night. Remember, the "public" has a short memory and teams are never as bad as they looked the last few games or as good as they looked the last few in the NBA (except for the Lakers, who are atrocious).

    HUGE lookahead for Cleveland tonight. Who's on deck for them at home tomorrow? How about the CHICAGO BULLS (who I will be betting on almost certainly so long as they aren't laying more than 3). That being said, the fact that this is LeBron's first home game back and Love's first home game there is making me think that a PASS here is the best play. LeBron and Love will have some initial growing pains just like LeBron did with Wade and Bosh, and CLE has to add in a new offense that is very different with Blatt than in past years, but 12.5 is a lot of points in the NBA. You know Carmelo will bring it tonight but it may not matter.

    Gun to my head I'd take the Knicks and the points and hope they backdoor this in the 4th.


     

    Nice OP Kap.

    I just have to disagree with the lookahead notion for the Cavs.

    That happens after game 1.

    Game 1 is it's own unique entity. All teams want to take Game 1 and Lebron's homecoming/Love's debut/Cavs new coaching staff far overshadow an opponent in Game 2.

    As a matter of fact, the opponent in Game 2 makes Game 1 against a far inferior opponent that much more important as the Cavs could easily be staring at 0-2 if they somehow didn't take care of business tonight.

    Still you get 12.5 which is a post in itself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



    I was kinda waiting for this question. For me its somewhat of a situational lean but the more I look at it, the more I probably pass. Normally I would be all over the Knicks here but they have their own problems and adjustments they have to make, but they are not as bad as the Bulls made them look last night. Remember, the "public" has a short memory and teams are never as bad as they looked the last few games or as good as they looked the last few in the NBA (except for the Lakers, who are atrocious).

    HUGE lookahead for Cleveland tonight. Who's on deck for them at home tomorrow? How about the CHICAGO BULLS (who I will be betting on almost certainly so long as they aren't laying more than 3). That being said, the fact that this is LeBron's first home game back and Love's first home game there is making me think that a PASS here is the best play. LeBron and Love will have some initial growing pains just like LeBron did with Wade and Bosh, and CLE has to add in a new offense that is very different with Blatt than in past years, but 12.5 is a lot of points in the NBA. You know Carmelo will bring it tonight but it may not matter.

    Gun to my head I'd take the Knicks and the points and hope they backdoor this in the 4th.


     

    Nice OP Kap.

    I just have to disagree with the lookahead notion for the Cavs.

    That happens after game 1.

    Game 1 is it's own unique entity. All teams want to take Game 1 and Lebron's homecoming/Love's debut/Cavs new coaching staff far overshadow an opponent in Game 2.

    As a matter of fact, the opponent in Game 2 makes Game 1 against a far inferior opponent that much more important as the Cavs could easily be staring at 0-2 if they somehow didn't take care of business tonight.

    Still you get 12.5 which is a post in itself.

     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 9:52 PM ET #34

    Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



    I was kinda waiting for this question. For me its somewhat of a situational lean but the more I look at it, the more I probably pass. Normally I would be all over the Knicks here but they have their own problems and adjustments they have to make, but they are not as bad as the Bulls made them look last night. Remember, the "public" has a short memory and teams are never as bad as they looked the last few games or as good as they looked the last few in the NBA (except for the Lakers, who are atrocious).

    HUGE lookahead for Cleveland tonight. Who's on deck for them at home tomorrow? How about the CHICAGO BULLS (who I will be betting on almost certainly so long as they aren't laying more than 3). That being said, the fact that this is LeBron's first home game back and Love's first home game there is making me think that a PASS here is the best play. LeBron and Love will have some initial growing pains just like LeBron did with Wade and Bosh, and CLE has to add in a new offense that is very different with Blatt than in past years, but 12.5 is a lot of points in the NBA. You know Carmelo will bring it tonight but it may not matter.

    Gun to my head I'd take the Knicks and the points and hope they backdoor this in the 4th.


    Great stuff kap. The reason I'm not an nba regular bettor is games like this 
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



    I was kinda waiting for this question. For me its somewhat of a situational lean but the more I look at it, the more I probably pass. Normally I would be all over the Knicks here but they have their own problems and adjustments they have to make, but they are not as bad as the Bulls made them look last night. Remember, the "public" has a short memory and teams are never as bad as they looked the last few games or as good as they looked the last few in the NBA (except for the Lakers, who are atrocious).

    HUGE lookahead for Cleveland tonight. Who's on deck for them at home tomorrow? How about the CHICAGO BULLS (who I will be betting on almost certainly so long as they aren't laying more than 3). That being said, the fact that this is LeBron's first home game back and Love's first home game there is making me think that a PASS here is the best play. LeBron and Love will have some initial growing pains just like LeBron did with Wade and Bosh, and CLE has to add in a new offense that is very different with Blatt than in past years, but 12.5 is a lot of points in the NBA. You know Carmelo will bring it tonight but it may not matter.

    Gun to my head I'd take the Knicks and the points and hope they backdoor this in the 4th.


    Great stuff kap. The reason I'm not an nba regular bettor is games like this 
     
    CMJohnson1
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 10:44 PM ET #35

    You da man Kap...just worried about a back door with the Clippers.  I see them jumping out early then coasting late.  Doc has been known for that
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    You da man Kap...just worried about a back door with the Clippers.  I see them jumping out early then coasting late.  Doc has been known for that
     
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 10:52 PM ET #36

    alldub -- thank you for the kind words

    Rockstar -- always glad to talk hoops, good to see you stop in, don't be a stranger this year

    tom, 3ball


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    alldub -- thank you for the kind words

    Rockstar -- always glad to talk hoops, good to see you stop in, don't be a stranger this year

    tom, 3ball


     
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 10:54 PM ET #37

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Great stuff kap. The reason I'm not an nba regular bettor is games like this 


    Sometimes its hard to explain the gut feel I get in certain situations. Its wrong obviously a fair portion of the time but its right enough that when I ignore it and I was right, I kick myself. I'm just trusting it and hoping I end up on the right side of some variance. NBA really has a rhythm to it, especially with the schedule and the psychological aspect of it because the talent level is rather close from team to team with a few exceptions, you know? Those little edges become that much more important.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Great stuff kap. The reason I'm not an nba regular bettor is games like this 


    Sometimes its hard to explain the gut feel I get in certain situations. Its wrong obviously a fair portion of the time but its right enough that when I ignore it and I was right, I kick myself. I'm just trusting it and hoping I end up on the right side of some variance. NBA really has a rhythm to it, especially with the schedule and the psychological aspect of it because the talent level is rather close from team to team with a few exceptions, you know? Those little edges become that much more important.
     
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 10:55 PM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

    You da man Kap...just worried about a back door with the Clippers.  I see them jumping out early then coasting late.  Doc has been known for that


    Thanks CMJ, much respect to you as well obviously. I am just hoping that LAC runs away early enough so it doesn't matter in the 4th.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

    You da man Kap...just worried about a back door with the Clippers.  I see them jumping out early then coasting late.  Doc has been known for that


    Thanks CMJ, much respect to you as well obviously. I am just hoping that LAC runs away early enough so it doesn't matter in the 4th.
     
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 10:57 PM ET #39

    Without looking at the advance lines, here's where my gut puts tomorrow's card:

    Memphis -3 @ INDIANA
    Cleveland @ CHICAGO -3
    Philadelphia @ MILWAUKEE -6.5
    San Antonio -2 @ PHOENIX
    Portland -5 @ SACRAMENTO
    Los Angeles Clippers -12.5 @ LOS ANGELES LAKERS


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    Without looking at the advance lines, here's where my gut puts tomorrow's card:

    Memphis -3 @ INDIANA
    Cleveland @ CHICAGO -3
    Philadelphia @ MILWAUKEE -6.5
    San Antonio -2 @ PHOENIX
    Portland -5 @ SACRAMENTO
    Los Angeles Clippers -12.5 @ LOS ANGELES LAKERS


     
    kaponofor3
    kaponofor3
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    Posts: 35430
    Posted: Oct. 30, 2014 - 10:58 PM ET #40

    Real lines on 5dimes:

    Memphis -6.5
    Milwaukee -8.5
    Portland -5.5
    San Antonio -1.5

    Fair lines. I was off clearly for Memphis and Milwaukee.
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    Real lines on 5dimes:

    Memphis -6.5
    Milwaukee -8.5
    Portland -5.5
    San Antonio -1.5

    Fair lines. I was off clearly for Memphis and Milwaukee.
     
    lmb4321
    lmb4321
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    Posts: 12400
    Posted: Oct. 31, 2014 - 1:44 AM ET #41

    Kapono....I really like the Clippers this year...but can't see them stepping up into the Spurs class.....and tonight just showed it.....but nice pick on the Mavs.....BOL....
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    Kapono....I really like the Clippers this year...but can't see them stepping up into the Spurs class.....and tonight just showed it.....but nice pick on the Mavs.....BOL....
     
    lmb4321
    lmb4321
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    Posts: 12400
    Posted: Oct. 31, 2014 - 1:48 AM ET #42

    Maybe against the Lakers on Friday......they step it up....
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    Maybe against the Lakers on Friday......they step it up....
     
     
    kaponofor3
    kaponofor3
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    Posts: 35430
    Posted: Oct. 31, 2014 - 10:44 AM ET #43

    1. Dallas Mavericks -10.5 (-105), 1.05 to win 1
    2. Los Angeles Clippers -13 (-102), 1.02 to win 1


    Thursday: 1-1, -0.02 units

    YTD: 6-2, +3.93 units
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    1. Dallas Mavericks -10.5 (-105), 1.05 to win 1
    2. Los Angeles Clippers -13 (-102), 1.02 to win 1


    Thursday: 1-1, -0.02 units

    YTD: 6-2, +3.93 units
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