NBA picks, Thursday, October 30, 2014

Wednesday: 4-1, +2.95 units
YTD: 5-1, +3.95 units

Some initial thoughts from last night's slate:

1. LAL is the worst team in the west. I'd rather have UTAH, SAC and MIN's roster than them. They will continue to be a turnstile on defense all year and teams should regularly hit 105+ against them. They are ATROCIOUS. I cannot overstate this enough. The personnel is just terrible outside of Kobe. PHOENIX SHOT FIFTY PERCENT FROM THREE against them and these were all wide open looks.

2. The ol "road team quitting in the 4th quarter " was on full display in POR, CHA, IND, MIA, and DEN  -- never forget that aspect of a fourth quarter collapse in capping. Some home courts are worth more than others.

3. CHA shouldn't have been that close with MIL last night. I was impressed with the quality of their homecourt crowd last night though. MIL is actually, from the top to bottom of their roster, not devoid of talent at all. They will be a team this year that I will be looking to back catching a lot of points, I think they end up with a number of underdog upsets this year when teams look past them.

4. I'm a tad surprised Minnesota played so well last night in Memphis. Thad Young will actually end up being a pretty good pick up for them, if nothing else he's a consistent scorer from the wing spot and its been a while since MIN has had a 20 PPG'ish scorer there the last few years. I'm surprised as well that Dieng only got twenty minutes and that Muhammad is actually getting on the court for MIN, he was a non-factor last year and if he could use his physicality better on the defensive end, might end up actually being an asset for MIN. Funny how spending a year sitting on the bench and not seeing the court can often cause a guy's attitude and work ethic to do a 180, isn't it?

5. If Marcus Morris can match his play from against the Lakers the rest of the year, PHX will not miss Channing Frye nearly as much as I thought they would.

6. CHI is the team to beat in the NBA in my mind. Great coaching, great defense, great leadership, great depth... hard to find an area of weakness for them. If anything, they still need a 2 guard who can create his own shot. I have always thought Afflalo would have been PERFECT for them but it was not meant to be.

I'm still looking at today's card but at this point, I'm leaning ORL +4, NYK +12.5, DAL -10.5, and LAC -11.5 -- hate laying big chalk but I'm seeing blowouts in Dallas and the Staples Center.

Will be popping in throughout the day to answer questions and then lock in my plays.

Glad NBA is finally here Kap! Like Orlando and Dallas as well. I think the Knicks are garbage still but will improve just not right now. Triangle offense will take time for that team, with that talent to grasp. Clippers look poised to do some great things this year! 

Great analysis as always, Kap!

I agree Rotomania. Not to mention Ny is coming off a back to back and there playing Clevland. I see it possibly being close in the first half but im thinking Clevland trys to make a statement here especially after the show Chicago displayed last night. Don't see Carmelo being in his right mind to play solid D on a slimmer LBJ. Im a newbie to the covers world but have a strong love for the game and a desire to enhance my understanding of this aspect of Baketball.

BOL

What did you see in NY that makes you lean towards them? Irving should do work and set up LBJ & Love all night.....

I was kinda waiting for this question. For me its somewhat of a situational lean but the more I look at it, the more I probably pass. Normally I would be all over the Knicks here but they have their own problems and adjustments they have to make, but they are not as bad as the Bulls made them look last night. Remember, the "public" has a short memory and teams are never as bad as they looked the last few games or as good as they looked the last few in the NBA (except for the Lakers, who are atrocious).

HUGE lookahead for Cleveland tonight. Who's on deck for them at home tomorrow? How about the CHICAGO BULLS (who I will be betting on almost certainly so long as they aren't laying more than 3). That being said, the fact that this is LeBron's first home game back and Love's first home game there is making me think that a PASS here is the best play. LeBron and Love will have some initial growing pains just like LeBron did with Wade and Bosh, and CLE has to add in a new offense that is very different with Blatt than in past years, but 12.5 is a lot of points in the NBA. You know Carmelo will bring it tonight but it may not matter.

Gun to my head I'd take the Knicks and the points and hope they backdoor this in the 4th.

Nice write up.

Tonight is not a look ahead. CLE will give max effort. People paying 10k a seat for front court seats,, it's like a finals game over there. CLE is going to dominate the 4th quarter, if its still close
By then.

Hey Covers-Team, can you chill the eff out with the 85 inbox messages pimping the College Hoops package please?

Great start.  

True kap. However, Lebron has never played with an elite pg, and Carmelo is very soft. My mind says Cavs win  105-89.....

Shabazz is in insane shape right now.  Look at the pictures on his twitter.  https://twitter.com/ShabazzMuhammad

Going to lock in these plays now:

1. Dallas Mavericks -10.5 (-105), 1.05 to win 1
2. Los Angeles Clippers -13 (-102), 1.02 to win 1

Major chalk which is normally scary but I still think both of these squads roll. I got scared off of CLE and don't think there is value in the WAS/ORL and DET/MIN games.

good picks

I think you are right, I imagine it will take something like 20+ games for them to really get the triangle under their belt and much longer to become proficient at it

His quote about never having worried about the team over his own scoring that he made recently was both enlightening and confirmed everything I had ever thought about his game.

I'm always down to talk hoops with someone who has a love for the game, feel free to chime in on my threads whenever you would like

 

My fellow UCLA fan, why the double laughing?

Good info, kap.
Nene is expected to suit up and play for the Wizards tonight against the Magics. Does that have any effect on your lean on ORL?

Do you do any TT, 1H, 1Q bets?  I was really considering OKC 1H +7.5 or 1Q +4.5, just seems like a lot of points while Westbrook isn't tired.  Kind of like what happened yesterday with POR, they kept a nice challenge until the 4th Q.  I was thinking of playing either 1H OKC, 1Q OKC or even TT over OKC 47.5 instead of taking the over for the 1H (102.5).

Love the game and love to see actually words, reasoning an d insight instead of a handshake and a smiling face.

1. Folks will disagree about that..Kobe is coming back after a long layoff so the expectation is he will be rusty. Players are hurt. Hard for  a  team to start this way and gel right away. Lot of pieces to put in place. I will tell you this kobe is a player and will play his heart out. They will play much better give it sometime.

2. Agree

3. Charlotte needed to wake up and glad they did in the 2nd half. Bucks got guys who can score but d not so. Better angle on them would be looking at the overs.

4. Not sold on Minn yet.

5. The Twins play, the more minutes they get the better they will be. The remind me of two old players who were not twins but had the same last name. The Davis boys who played with Miller in Indy.

If anything it would make me lean WAS cause Nene is a huge part for what they do on both ends of the floor, but I am hesitant to lay more than a possession with them on the road on a B2B. I'll pass and wait for better spots with them.

Quarters? Never. I'd point you to CMJ and someone like Prof1 on those types of plays.

Halves? Occasional 2H plays, rarely ever do 1H plays. I think I've done one or two in the NBA in the last few years.

TT? Those I am interested in if I can find an edge. You may see that on 10-15 occasions during the course of the year for me, but with how bad LAL is on defense.... I may auto-play their opponents' TT over until the books catch up. 

I just personally prefer full games, and I play far more sides than I do totals. Just a matter of personal preference, nothing more.