NBA picks, Monday, January 2, 2012

Saturday: 3-0, +3.50 units
YTD: 24-18, +6.98 units

Good start to 2012 for me with a 3-0 Sunday, hope to keep it rolling on this football Monday:

1. Phoenix Suns -3.5 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
2. Indiana Pacers -5.5 (-110), 1.65 to win 1.5
3. Minnesota Timberwolves +5 (-110), 1.1 to win 1
4. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 (-110), 2.2 to win 2
5. Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 (-110), 2.2 to win 2

Brief thoughts:

1. Let's see how GSW does in their first road game, I think PHX wins by a few possessions here. PHX far easier to back when they are coming off rest than on a B2B

2. INDY should be nice and angry after getting the crap kicked out of them in DET. NJN is still just a bad team overall and is in an absolutely brutal scheduling spot.

3. I'll ride the Wolves until the linesmakers adjust. They are a better team than public perception right now, and if people have been following the NBA forum for a while, they know there are those of us here who definitely expected it. I think its gonna take a while for the lines to adjust, and this I feel like this should be MIN +3 (true line) instead of MIN +5. Getting two points of value here is totally worth it.

4. This line totally confuses me, I'll readily admit. I will look to fade DAL on B2B's this year given the age of their roster. My fellow NBA afficionados also know that DAL on the road last year was awesome but they were terrible at home. OKC is in a completely different spot in this game as opposed to their earlier meeting (now: coming off one day of rest; then: tail end of a B2B and 4th game in 5 days). DAL is in one of the worst schedule spots here (4th game in 5 days) while last game vs OKC they were coming off of 2 days and valiantly searching for a win. I think OKC wins this thing running away.

5. MIL coming off of two days rest playing against a DEN team that is playing its fifth game in six days!? Give me MIL all day in this spot. Possible let-down situation for DEN given their two big wins against LAL and now they get an out of conference opponent. The "I don't give a ****" angle may come into play here for DEN.

Sidenote: I did a double take at the GSW/PHX total of 192 -- I can't remember the last time a GSW/PHX game had a total under 210 or so.

Good luck to everyone today 

on most..goodluck

From John Hollinger on Twitter:

Stat of the day: Jimmer Fredette's five assists last night were a Kings season-high.

can you explain a little on the brutal bad spot for the nets. I could never understand bad scheduling spots in NBA.

thanks man

Just as a correction note, Denver lost in Los Angeles.
BOL mate and thanks for sharing your thoughts, appreciated.

Sure Riceboi -- take a look at this link, its what I use for my schedule analysis: https://rotoguru.net/hoop/schedule.html

Now go and highlight the row with January 2 and look for the NJN column. Today's game for NJN will be their fourth game in five days, and all of them involved travel (i.e., from ORL to ATL to CLE to NJ). That is deadly for a team's legs and their ability to recover physically and be ready to play the next game. Add that in to the fact that they are playing a team who is coming off of a day of rest (and should therefore have better legs), and it screams automatic advantage to the rested team.

Hopefully that helps

Doh, you are right, my bad... I guess I meant that they covered both games... I had them in LAL and for me, an ATS is just as good as a SU win

Appreciate the correction though, never had anyone from Romania comment on my thread

Love OKC here - GL tonite

Curious as to why you are on the bucks tonight?

The Kings will be a joke all year long. 

Most bet NBA game today will be the NBATV game where you can get OKC 5-0 vs. the 1-4 Crumbling Champion which just got PUNKED  in MIN last night.

 

 

Buyer Beware

I love Okc. My book offered me -1.5 because they are part of my favorite team preference. I believe this is a line mistake. Odds-makers  just don't realize how much different this Dallas team is after they won the championship. They are not hungry anymore. Only Mark Cuban is still hungry for more rings.

Thanks Grandma. This buyer is always beware. In fact, the last few times you've come into my thread to tell me how much you dislike one of my plays, it's cashed... so thanks I think?

DALLAS MAVERICKS ML

Phoenix

Nice way to start off the new year!  gl kap

Gotta like the Bucks/Nuggs U198 as well eh Kap?

Absolutely love your card today KP.  Excellent breakdowns bro.  One of the only threads I open on this forum.  Appreciate the info bro.

Happy New Year to you and your fam, wish you a very profitable and prosperous 2012 Kap.  Good luck with your wagers tonight.

Good luck I like the Pacers as well....

GL 

bol kap