2012 Playoffs : 55-40-3 +226.32 units
Los Angeles Lakers +8 (16 units to win 15.24)
Los Angeles Lakers +340 (3 units to win 10.20)
Gulp! I'll start by saying based on previous lines to this point, the line for tonight's game is right where it should be. And to be honest, I'd go further and say it's even a tad lower than where it should be. In games 1 and 2, OKC was favored by 7.5 and 8 respectively, which is right where they are sitting for Game 5. Additionally, for Game 4, they closed as a 2pt favorite on the road in LA, which when you turn that to an OKC home line, you'd be seeing at least a -8. OKC now up 3-1 and the perception is that LA is done mentally and will throw in the towel once they trail the Thunder. If that's on the minds of every expert and the general public, then this line should be higher, or at the very least should have been pushed higher. Yet, we still see the exact line we saw for Game 1 when this thing was 0-0. This playoffs, OKC has five wins by a combined 15 points. This is a testament to their ability to rebound from adversity and to maintain toughness in close games down the stretch. But only two of their 8 playoff games to this point have covered this number, so seems those backing the Thunder are backing the "LA has quit" angle. Certainly possible they have, but in my opinion, while their team pride is questionable, I think each individual has personal pride and nobody wants to be on the receiving end of the finger pointing. If Bynum gets the ball, he wil continue to be productive. Gasol is a veteran and I'd be shocked if anyone on this board called him out for not trying. Kobe is Kobe. He just doesn't like to lose. So really the wildcard here is Bynum. He has looked dominant on the inside and it's clear that if he gets the touches, the Thunder realyl struggle keeping him contained. I don't foresee Bynum being any less dominant than he has to this point in the series.
Over the last two seasons, Durant and Westbrook have each scored over 30 points in the same game 16 times. In the games following, they are 6-16 ATS and on average the Thunder are outscoring opponents 99-96. Personally, in the games following Durant has averaged 24.9 and Westbrook has pumped in 23.6 points per game. Still solid numbers, but in the 16 games, only once have they both scored more than 30 twice in a row. In the 16 games, they have combined to represent 48.8% of the scoring for the Thunder. If we assume they hit their average and combined for 48 points, the Thunder should end up somewhere around 96. That would put the Lakers at 87 if the Thunder were to win and cover the line for tonight. Certainly possible, though I see the Lakers in the 90s.
Let's suppose, one of Durant or Westbrook struggle and end up well below the averages noted above. Someone else will need to fill the scoring void. James Harden? Possible, but when you look through the box score, he has been quite brutal this series. He is shooting 26% from the field and 20% from 3Pt. Much of the damage he has caused has been from the FT line where he is 31-34 throughout this series. He is hitting 91% and of his scoring, 54.4% has been from the FT line. That shows his aggression and that's a positive, but if the Thunder need him to step up and make buckets, I see nothing to this point that tells me he can. And maybe he won't be needed, but history seems to show Durant & Westbrook pull back a bit after they go off and relying on FT shooting is a dangerous method of accounting for scoring loss. Beyond Harden, I don't think we see anyone else leave a scoring imprint on this game.
Well aware, Durant and Westbrook could both go off, one could go and that might be enough or maybe Harden does in fact get himself some points, but seems like some uncertainties there for a team laying 8.5 with the Mamba on patrolling the court. Bynum's interst in winning is huge, but if the Lakers give him the ball, I trust in his personal desire to dominate.
Good read. 
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