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NBA line making model. Will post interesting/strange lines.

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Participants:

Posts: 192

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Mar. 29, 2015 - 7:20 PM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:

So let's focus on this matchup which I think is the remaining interesting one today. We are in agreement on the spread, but books put the total at 213.5, implying either that this game will be played at around 100 pace quite a bit above their usual pace over the last games and the season, or at a normal pace but that both teams will play a better offense/sloppier defense than their average (or a combination of these two scenarios).

Thoughts on the matchup and the lines?

Total shortening now to 212-211½ at books.

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Mar. 29, 2015 - 7:37 PM ET #52

Pyth exp of (closing) total going O: 39.5%

U: 60.5%

Crack5511

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2015

Posts: 111

Posted: Mar. 29, 2015 - 7:38 PM ET #53

So is the under still worth it

iceman67

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 3253

Posted: Mar. 29, 2015 - 11:55 PM ET #54

Numbers just don't lie in the long run... That PX GS game was on pace for 250+ AROUND HALF TIME!!!

Love your approach B,,, I have no idea how someone can place important money on any sports wager without first setting their own line,,,,,,,,,,, however you set it,,, just set it,,,, and adjust, to what you notice works or doesn't.

How the hell can you count on hunches? Or knowing there is a "revenge factor" or a "they will be up for this one because.... blah blah blah".....

ewickz

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 536

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 12:13 AM ET #55

This is legit

Big_Hersch

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2014

Posts: 483

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 4:08 AM ET #56

Interested in seeing what develops from this.

Proxyi

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2014

Posts: 792

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 4:16 AM ET #57

Curious for your todays analysis of Suns and Kings game, since my system got pretty even with the books on the other games, but on these two it got only ~1 point advantage to the home sides.

TsikenBreast

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2012

Posts: 3170

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 4:26 AM ET #58

Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:

Quote Originally Posted by TsikenBreast:

with
regards to post #2 let's say you have houston as 8 point favorites, and then actual line is 2.5. Does this system go WITH or AGAINST houston.Im usually the contrarian. others might think getting houston is a "bargain" at 2.5. i would usually think of it as luring in more bets on houston at 2.5-the sucker bet.

lol. Oh covers.

Lol. You do know lines are set based on public perception right?

dkistler

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 634

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 7:17 AM ET #59

ih8nits

Rookie

Joined: May, 2012

Posts: 791

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 8:17 AM ET #60

in b4 guy starts selling picks.

thailam

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 272

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 8:49 AM ET #61

Get in ATM ?? Son. Don care any cat.. If that cat ?? can catch the mousey.. That I care..?? nm ?? a understanding my man..professor..

WarrENDeatH

Rookie

Joined: Dec, 2014

Posts: 654

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 9:11 AM ET #62

I lost picking 2 picks from this. Ugh.

Liturgy_of_Fade

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 949

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 10:55 AM ET #63

Quote Originally Posted by WarrENDeatH:

I lost picking 2 picks from this. Ugh.

Did you read bermax's disclaimer -- the part in CAPS LOCK about how he's not even placing his own money on this, among other things?

You putting YOUR money on his new system which he is testing out means that your losing picks are your picks and nobody else's.

Jdb15

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2015

Posts: 29

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 10:56 AM ET #64

Keep up the hard work Bermax! BOL

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 12:17 PM ET #65

Quote Originally Posted by Proxyi:

Curious for your todays analysis of Suns and Kings game, since my system got pretty even with the books on the other games, but on these two it got only ~1 point advantage to the home sides.

Agree with that general tendency, I have the spread at -3/-4.5 for those two respectively while the books have -8ish.

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 12:22 PM ET #66

LAL PHI

HOU TOR

UTA MIN

These games model agrees with books within 1-2 points on team totals, spread and total.

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 12:26 PM ET #67

So for the interesting ones

SAC@MEM

Model

96.4 4.5 197.2

100.8 -4.5

Pinnacle

94.0 8.0 196.5

102.0 -8.0

This is actually a pretty close line when looking at it. Team totals are not that off compared to pinny but they move toward each other in the model compared to pinny making the effect on the spread more marked. Wouldn't say that it's a noteworthy difference from the books line

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 12:33 PM ET #68

Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:

So for the interesting ones

SAC@MEM

Model

96.4 4.5 197.2

100.8 -4.5

Pinnacle

94.0 8.0 196.5

102.0 -8.0

PHO@POR

Model

97.5 3.2 198.1

100.7 -3.2

Pinnacle

96.5 8.5 201.0

104.5 -8.5

Actually exactly the same tendency in this game. 3.8 points off the Portland total is the most noteworth difference. The diff on the spread looks marked but doesn't feel like a too off line

JefCostello

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 662

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 12:34 PM ET #69

How does your model's results for the 76ers game look compared to the same match up from last week?

DeaconofDefense

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2015

Posts: 2

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 12:42 PM ET #70

What about the suns and trail blazers game Bermax

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 12:44 PM ET #71

Most interesting diff between model and books here imo. Charlotte total 4.7 points lower in model. Yhoughts?

BOS@CHA

Model

95.4 -1.6 189.3

93.8 1.6

Pinnacle

95.0 3.0 194.0

98.5 -3.0

JefCostello

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 662

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 12:55 PM ET #72

Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:

PHO@POR

Model

97.5 3.2 198.1

100.7 -3.2

Pinnacle

96.5 8.5 201.0

104.5 -8.5

Actually exactly the same tendency in this game. 3.8 points off the Portland total is the most noteworth difference. The diff on the spread looks marked but doesn't feel like a too off line

My book already has this down to 198.5...

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 1:19 PM ET #73

Quote Originally Posted by JefCostello:

My book already has this down to 198.5...

Does your book have team totals? Is the por total coming down and spread decreasing?

JefCostello

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 662

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 1:25 PM ET #74

Total moved half a point back to 199

Phoenix TT: 95

Portland TT: 104

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Mar. 30, 2015 - 1:37 PM ET #75

Ok bump for input. Under the assumption that model is a pretty good raw stats line - What new known facts are out on the Charlotte game that would see their average offensive performance / Bostons defensive performance increase / decrease with 5pts a pretty big shift on a team total <100

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NBA line making model. Will post interesting/strange lines.

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