B2B road games is included in the model. It's worth one point in reality on average. What the public perceives it's value to be I dont know but maybe we can get some kind of idea in this thread
I'm actually surprised it's worth that much,,, it has been such an easy talking point for "sports media experts" and covers "handicappers" that you would honestly think it comes in at a 5 pt value regardless of the matchup...
What i'm saying is this could be a key overvalued variable along with "revenge factor" that the line makers use in todays gambling world. Sports betting is bigger than ever right now and I think that the books may acutally have to factor in the small money thinking more than the big boys
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Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:
B2B road games is included in the model. It's worth one point in reality on average. What the public perceives it's value to be I dont know but maybe we can get some kind of idea in this thread
I'm actually surprised it's worth that much,,, it has been such an easy talking point for "sports media experts" and covers "handicappers" that you would honestly think it comes in at a 5 pt value regardless of the matchup...
What i'm saying is this could be a key overvalued variable along with "revenge factor" that the line makers use in todays gambling world. Sports betting is bigger than ever right now and I think that the books may acutally have to factor in the small money thinking more than the big boys
Alright, gonna take the over on this for $50 and see how it goes. Thanks for all the work and effort.
Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:
A little warning about totals: they are EXTREMELY sensitive to game pace. the total in the toronto game rises to 225 if it is played at 97 pace instead of the calculated average 93 in the model. And both these teams have played several 97 pace games recently. Total betting my own feel is you need to have some sort of grounded idea if the game will be fast paced or slow to support your picking; otherwise it can be a real crapshoot averages being what they are. Spreads are more robust, a +10 spread will still be almost the same regardless if the pace is 89 or 99
Dude you nailed it. 212 exactly. Incredible.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:
Toronto Raptors110.3-8.8211.7
Minnesota Timberwolves101.58.8
Toronto Raptors106.5-9.5203.5
Minnesota Timberwolves96.59.5
Quote Originally Posted by JefCostello:
Alright, gonna take the over on this for $50 and see how it goes. Thanks for all the work and effort.
Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:
A little warning about totals: they are EXTREMELY sensitive to game pace. the total in the toronto game rises to 225 if it is played at 97 pace instead of the calculated average 93 in the model. And both these teams have played several 97 pace games recently. Total betting my own feel is you need to have some sort of grounded idea if the game will be fast paced or slow to support your picking; otherwise it can be a real crapshoot averages being what they are. Spreads are more robust, a +10 spread will still be almost the same regardless if the pace is 89 or 99
Just a general thought after reading your post. Since I'm using the averages over time of the variables ortg and drtg, which essentialy are pace adjusted points scored/allowed, isn't it a logical fallacy to try to adjust those numbers with an intermediary variable like turnover marigin? Points scored allowed is a hard endpoint of all "intermediary" stats: shooting %age/ turnover margin / rebounding - those differences in the end boil down to how many points each team allows/makes, which is already in the raw data. Your 6-9 extra points in the example are already translated into the final scores which are the basis for analysis. Or am I making a mistake here?
And in reply to the claw what I think is important is nailing the points scored allowed (ortg/drtg *pace), since that what goes into spread/totals betting. Winning %ages are of less importance in that regard and I have no way of calculating them. Interesting imput never the less.
Correct, turnovers are included in Off rating/Def rating.
Another way to do this is....points scored per shot attempts, but adding TO's in as shot attempts.
Game pace is not needed here because it gives you a team's effeciency , not volume.
Add rebounding to this and you have a very good power rating.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:
Thanks for input and encouraging words!
Just a general thought after reading your post. Since I'm using the averages over time of the variables ortg and drtg, which essentialy are pace adjusted points scored/allowed, isn't it a logical fallacy to try to adjust those numbers with an intermediary variable like turnover marigin? Points scored allowed is a hard endpoint of all "intermediary" stats: shooting %age/ turnover margin / rebounding - those differences in the end boil down to how many points each team allows/makes, which is already in the raw data. Your 6-9 extra points in the example are already translated into the final scores which are the basis for analysis. Or am I making a mistake here?
And in reply to the claw what I think is important is nailing the points scored allowed (ortg/drtg *pace), since that what goes into spread/totals betting. Winning %ages are of less importance in that regard and I have no way of calculating them. Interesting imput never the less.
Correct, turnovers are included in Off rating/Def rating.
Another way to do this is....points scored per shot attempts, but adding TO's in as shot attempts.
Game pace is not needed here because it gives you a team's effeciency , not volume.
Add rebounding to this and you have a very good power rating.
Bermax. I posted Houston+2 as my POD earlier in my thread...and under. I capped Houston to win by 4.19. Starting to dig your system more each day. I am more of an old school pen n paper guy...
THANKS FOR POSTING.
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Bermax. I posted Houston+2 as my POD earlier in my thread...and under. I capped Houston to win by 4.19. Starting to dig your system more each day. I am more of an old school pen n paper guy...
The biggest differentials yesterday were Det/Charlotte and 76ers/Wizards, with Bermax's numbers showing Detroit as approx 5 point favorite and 76ers approx a 2 point dog.
Both were runaway wins the other way.
The Spurs was also a big differential and Bermax's numbers supported what was a winning play.
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Quote Originally Posted by bobmaloogatimesfive:
Thanks Bermax -- looks like value on the Rockets
The biggest differentials yesterday were Det/Charlotte and 76ers/Wizards, with Bermax's numbers showing Detroit as approx 5 point favorite and 76ers approx a 2 point dog.
Both were runaway wins the other way.
The Spurs was also a big differential and Bermax's numbers supported what was a winning play.
Bermax. I posted Houston+2 as my POD earlier in my thread...and under. I capped Houston to win by 4.19. Starting to dig your system more each day. I am more of an old school pen n paper guy...
THANKS FOR POSTING.
Then I guess you looked into the game in detail, would be interesting to hear what your take is on the game and what sets it apart from previous games; facts that you could use to adjust the projection - remember that my line is a pure retrospective stats line giving equal weight to last 6 / last 12 / season. Team news, new lineups and tanking/extra motivation is never incorporated but have to be capped to adjust the line.
That's why I wouldn't trust it very much on games like charlotte and philadelphia last night where tanking / fighting for a play off spot are factors very much in play and hard to quantify.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Bermax. I posted Houston+2 as my POD earlier in my thread...and under. I capped Houston to win by 4.19. Starting to dig your system more each day. I am more of an old school pen n paper guy...
THANKS FOR POSTING.
Then I guess you looked into the game in detail, would be interesting to hear what your take is on the game and what sets it apart from previous games; facts that you could use to adjust the projection - remember that my line is a pure retrospective stats line giving equal weight to last 6 / last 12 / season. Team news, new lineups and tanking/extra motivation is never incorporated but have to be capped to adjust the line.
That's why I wouldn't trust it very much on games like charlotte and philadelphia last night where tanking / fighting for a play off spot are factors very much in play and hard to quantify.
I don't know much about basketball but do you think it's a correct assumption that the mav's performance last game is what's inflating the line and their team total at the books?
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Quote Originally Posted by bobmaloogatimesfive:
Thanks Bermax -- looks like value on the Rockets
I don't know much about basketball but do you think it's a correct assumption that the mav's performance last game is what's inflating the line and their team total at the books?
Bermax. I posted Houston+2 as my POD earlier in my thread...and under. I capped Houston to win by 4.19. Starting to dig your system more each day. I am more of an old school pen n paper guy...THANKS FOR POSTING.
Then I guess you looked into the game in detail, would be interesting to hear what your take is on the game and what sets it apart from previous games; facts that you could use to adjust the projection - remember that my line is a pure retrospective stats line giving equal weight to last 6 / last 12 / season. Team news, new lineups and tanking/extra motivation is never incorporated but have to be capped to adjust the line.That's why I wouldn't trust it very much on games like charlotte and philadelphia last night where tanking / fighting for a play off spot are factors very much in play and hard to quantify.
Lets start w/ turnover margin(and I know this is all ready incorporated into your model) Dallas is dead last in the league at -3.2. Hou is 13th at +.4. A possible +3.6 possesions for Hou.
Both teams are on a b2b. But houston is fairly younger and youth handles this better than age, specifically Dirk Nowitzki.
More "human elements" dallas expended much more energy against a tough okc team. Hou "slept walked" in a sense vs a lesser Sacremento team.
Hou 20-17 ATS away (4-1) last 5 Dallas 14-20 ATS home (2-4) last 6
Coaching...I have gained much respect for Kevin McHale as the year has progressed.
Rick Carlisle I respect, but he's had a tough juggling act in setting a starting lineup because of injuries and trades.
THE DALLAS MAVERICKS HAVE HAD MORE COMBINATIONS OF PLAYERS IN THEIR STARTING 5 THAN ANY OTHER TEAM IN THE NBA.
You cant cap chemistry. Being dead last in turnover margin is vindicative of this.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Bermax. I posted Houston+2 as my POD earlier in my thread...and under. I capped Houston to win by 4.19. Starting to dig your system more each day. I am more of an old school pen n paper guy...THANKS FOR POSTING.
Then I guess you looked into the game in detail, would be interesting to hear what your take is on the game and what sets it apart from previous games; facts that you could use to adjust the projection - remember that my line is a pure retrospective stats line giving equal weight to last 6 / last 12 / season. Team news, new lineups and tanking/extra motivation is never incorporated but have to be capped to adjust the line.That's why I wouldn't trust it very much on games like charlotte and philadelphia last night where tanking / fighting for a play off spot are factors very much in play and hard to quantify.
Lets start w/ turnover margin(and I know this is all ready incorporated into your model) Dallas is dead last in the league at -3.2. Hou is 13th at +.4. A possible +3.6 possesions for Hou.
Both teams are on a b2b. But houston is fairly younger and youth handles this better than age, specifically Dirk Nowitzki.
More "human elements" dallas expended much more energy against a tough okc team. Hou "slept walked" in a sense vs a lesser Sacremento team.
Hou 20-17 ATS away (4-1) last 5 Dallas 14-20 ATS home (2-4) last 6
Coaching...I have gained much respect for Kevin McHale as the year has progressed.
Rick Carlisle I respect, but he's had a tough juggling act in setting a starting lineup because of injuries and trades.
THE DALLAS MAVERICKS HAVE HAD MORE COMBINATIONS OF PLAYERS IN THEIR STARTING 5 THAN ANY OTHER TEAM IN THE NBA.
You cant cap chemistry. Being dead last in turnover margin is vindicative of this.
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