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NBA line making model. Will post interesting/strange lines.

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Participants:

Posts: 192

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Mar. 31, 2015 - 10:49 AM ET #101

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

BERMAX,

Just read this thread from top to bottom. Covers needs more stat/model greeks like you on this forum. From what I took from your opening post...you are completely unbiased and aren't familiar with the NBA. And IMO that is a good thing. If you eventually hammer down your system to get to a 55-60% succes rate you will be in plus money as long as you stick to your guns and don't let bias or "hunches" effect your wagers.

With that being said, here are a couple things that may help your system.

Turn over margin is important IMO. If team A has a -.5 t.o.m. and team B has a +2.5 t.o.m. that's theoretically 3 extra possessions for team B. Which is a possible 6 to 9 more points if team B were to score on those 3 extra possessions. From there you could calculate team B's shooting percentage/adj offense vs team A's adj defense and get a "ball park" # of the "probable" extra points off of turnovers for team B.

Another good stat to look at is SOS. How you would incorporate that into your system is up to you and if it fits into your system.

Personally, I always liked the theory that shooting% and offense is never guaranteed. A team can be off shooting the ball for many reasons, and visa versa(sometimes they just shoot really well) 2 things that are a constant are REBOUNDING and DEFENSE. I myself take into account rebounding always.

Good luck w/ your system.

**love the Boston/Charlotte #'s you posted. I locked into Boston +4 last night, and just hit the ML**

Thanks for input and encouraging words!

Just a general thought after reading your post. Since I'm using the averages over time of the variables ortg and drtg, which essentialy are pace adjusted points scored/allowed, isn't it a logical fallacy to try to adjust those numbers with an intermediary variable like turnover marigin? Points scored allowed is a hard endpoint of all "intermediary" stats: shooting %age/ turnover margin / rebounding - those differences in the end boil down to how many points each team allows/makes, which is already in the raw data. Your 6-9 extra points in the example are already translated into the final scores which are the basis for analysis. Or am I making a mistake here?

And in reply to the claw what I think is important is nailing the points scored allowed (ortg/drtg *pace), since that what goes into spread/totals betting. Winning %ages are of less importance in that regard and I have no way of calculating them. Interesting imput never the less.

Thanks for input and encouraging words!

undermysac

Legend

Joined: Dec, 2014

Posts: 52204

Posted: Mar. 31, 2015 - 11:57 AM ET #102

If all those factors that I mentioned are all ready translated into the final score of your system, then I can only guess that it is nothing to worry about specifically to your system.

There are just so much various things that can effect a final score. The human element being a big one, time of year, is a team tanking? Is a team trying to make the playoffs?, experience, coaching etc...

There's always a way to figure a # into any element of the game. Only time, trial and error will eventually let you apply a good formula to an all ready decent system IMO

bobmaloogatimesfive

Captain

Joined: Jun, 2013

Posts: 9399

Posted: Mar. 31, 2015 - 12:23 PM ET #103

Bermax what do your numbers say for the Clippers game?

rangerz2478

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 17830

Posted: Mar. 31, 2015 - 2:30 PM ET #104

Quote Originally Posted by TsikenBreast:

lol. Oh covers.

Lol. You do know lines are set based on public perception right?

Do YOU know fading the public/betting against "trap" lines is not a profitable long term system?

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Mar. 31, 2015 - 6:09 PM ET #105

NBA Tue. Mar 31

Lines incl ref bias.

model

ATL 99.8 3.5 203.2

DET 103.4 -3.5

current pinnacle

ATL 95.0 6.0 196.0

DET 101.0 -6.0

model

IND 99.3 1.6 200.1

BRK 100.8 -1.6

current pinnacle

IND 98.0 1 .5 199.0

BRK 100.0 -1.5

model

SAS 101.3 -9.4 193.2

MIA 91.9 9.4

current pinnacle

SAS 102.5 -8.5 194.5

MIA 93.0 8.5

model

GSW 107.0 -0.5 213.5

LAC 106.5 0.5

current pinnacle

GSW 106.0 3.5 218.0

LAC 110.5 -3.5

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Mar. 31, 2015 - 6:09 PM ET #106

[ATL@DET comment: Model's leaning heavily to the over side because two of the three officials have a strong over bias favoring the home team with on average +3.5 pts ABOVE the usual home court advantage average. Even without ref bias added in model would be over on the total compared to books. Books line opened at DET+3]

[IND@BRK comment: pretty much spot on the books line]

[SAS@MIA comment: pretty much spot on the books line]

[GSW@LAC K comment: model was closer to the books opener but line has drifted since]

iceman67

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 3253

Posted: Mar. 31, 2015 - 6:39 PM ET #107

Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:

HMMM very interesting,

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Mar. 31, 2015 - 8:39 PM ET #108

Here is - as promised - the

Bermax

Raw Stats Simple

NBA

Line Maker

Knock yourselves out

https://goo.gl/Pn2Anb

bobmaloogatimesfive

Captain

Joined: Jun, 2013

Posts: 9399

Posted: Mar. 31, 2015 - 8:45 PM ET #109

Really radical of you to take the time to share that man -- thanks for your thread and energy

ianch

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 127

Posted: Apr. 1, 2015 - 1:57 AM ET #110

Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:

Here is - as promised - the

Bermax

Raw Stats Simple

NBA

Line Maker

Knock yourselves out

https://goo.gl/Pn2Anb

Thanks for this, sent you a friend request for PM

Proxyi

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2014

Posts: 792

Posted: Apr. 1, 2015 - 2:24 AM ET #111

Thanks so much, you are the man.

Btw, there was a significant line different at GSW game, too, however the result came up close.

ad1260

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 8158

Posted: Apr. 1, 2015 - 8:53 AM ET #112

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Apr. 1, 2015 - 9:54 AM ET #113

Interesting MAJOR line diskrepancies between model and early pinnacle lines, just throwing a couple of quick one's out there (referee bias not accounted for):

Model / Pinnacel

DET -5.8 / +4.5

PHI +1.6 / -10.5

ORL +17.3 / +9.0

LAC -3.2 / +3.0

Feedback welcome, try to explain the big diffs now that you now what goes into the model lines. Other games more equal to the books.

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Apr. 1, 2015 - 10:33 AM ET #114

Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:

Interesting MAJOR line diskrepancies between model and early pinnacle lines, just throwing a couple of quick one's out there (referee bias not accounted for):

Model / Pinnacel

DET -5.8 / +4.5

PHI +1.6 / -10.5

ORL +17.3 / +9.0

LAC -3.2 / +3.0

Feedback welcome, try to explain the big diffs now that you now what goes into the model lines. Other games more equal to the books.

That's PHI +10.5 at pinny, sorry, I type too fast for my own good sometimes, I'll restate the matchups in a more logical way w the team's listed that books (generously?) give more points on the spread than the model thinks they should have:

model/pinnacle

DET -5.8 / +4.5

PHI +1.6 / +10.5

SAS -17.3 / -9.0

LAC -3.2 / +3.0

BedanSensation

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 57

Posted: Apr. 1, 2015 - 11:22 AM ET #115

this is really interesting. care to post all of the other lines? ill be following this one really closely

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Apr. 1, 2015 - 11:44 AM ET #116

Bump for input. Its insane that this forum has 10,000 threads along the lines of "my daily locks because I feel they will win" and you can barely get any responses on actual posted spreads from people who should have some sort of interest in the NBA.

Liturgy_of_Fade

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 949

Posted: Apr. 1, 2015 - 11:44 AM ET #117

Bermax, it looks like Reggie Jackson battled through nausea and fatigue last night and is questionable. The discrepancy on that line may in part have to do with that.

You also have a playoff-picture team in Charlotte at home versus a Detroit team all but out of the picture.

Liturgy_of_Fade

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 949

Posted: Apr. 1, 2015 - 11:49 AM ET #118

The more I think about it...

Detroit just beat an apathetic Hawks reserve team at home last night, and now they travel to Charlotte to face a more rested and MUCH more motivated team, perhaps without their primary ball-handler and scorer.

allblacktuxedo

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 966

Posted: Apr. 1, 2015 - 11:50 AM ET #119

I am a fan of this thread, I think your system is a great first-stage filter for potential games, in my opinion may be more accurate earlier in the season when both teams have equal motivation and health. Too many random factors at this point, playoff motivation etc but love the work your doing maybe as a group can make it even more accurate, keep it up!

Bermax

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 239

Posted: Apr. 1, 2015 - 12:04 PM ET #120

Quote Originally Posted by Liturgy_of_Fade:

The more I think about it...Detroit just beat an apathetic Hawks reserve team at home last night, and now they travel to Charlotte to face a more rested and MUCH more motivated team, perhaps without their primary ball-handler and scorer.

Try to quantify that. Is it worth 10 pts on the spread?

Liturgy_of_Fade

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2014

Posts: 949

Posted: Apr. 1, 2015 - 12:09 PM ET #121

Quote Originally Posted by Bermax:

Try to quantify that. Is it worth 10 pts on the spread?

Haha, I don't think so. But we know lines are made on public perception.

Charlotte has issues of their own too, of course. Lance Stephenson a healthy scratch in Monday's very important game versus the Celtics. Zeller and Kid-Gilchrist are banged up and out tonight. Perhaps most importantly, Al Jefferson is not 100% with his dodgy knees.