Lets get the ugly out of the way... The last month of the playoffs was an epically horrid free fall. We lost an unbelievable 84.9 units in the last 35 days. After starting out the season hot again we had a poor playoff run. The highest point of the season was +67.8 units and the lowest point was -18.8 units on the final day. This spread of results was similar to our prior NBA season (2010-2011) where the highest point of the season was +67.2 units and the lowest point was -16.2 units, but this current season we ended at our low. There's no sugarcoating it, it was a disappointing end to the season. Unfortunately, my record resulted in only our 2nd losing season in 10, but I bounced back from a down season before and I'm confident I'll bounce next Basketball season. Having a regular 82 game schedule next season should help, and we're still +10.2 units over the last 2 seasons despite losing -84.9 units in the last month of this season.
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Lets get the ugly out of the way... The last month of the playoffs was an epically horrid free fall. We lost an unbelievable 84.9 units in the last 35 days. After starting out the season hot again we had a poor playoff run. The highest point of the season was +67.8 units and the lowest point was -18.8 units on the final day. This spread of results was similar to our prior NBA season (2010-2011) where the highest point of the season was +67.2 units and the lowest point was -16.2 units, but this current season we ended at our low. There's no sugarcoating it, it was a disappointing end to the season. Unfortunately, my record resulted in only our 2nd losing season in 10, but I bounced back from a down season before and I'm confident I'll bounce next Basketball season. Having a regular 82 game schedule next season should help, and we're still +10.2 units over the last 2 seasons despite losing -84.9 units in the last month of this season.
I've gone back though every single play posted over the last 2 seasons and found some interesting trends that I believe will allow us to do better next season. First, some people asked if second half plays did better than our overall results. The answer is surprisingly a big no. Despite being up +10.2 units cumulatively over the last 2 seasons, second half plays were down -29.9 units. It turns out all quarter plays (either 1st quarter or In-Running quarters) were also negative. Full Game plays and First Half plays were by far the most profitable combining for +60.9 units over the two year period. Obviously the other categories dragged us down a lot. The following table represents the results over the last 2 years for FULL GAME and FIRST HALF plays combined:
5* 12-8 (+20.0 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.42 ppg 4* 28-19 (+24.4 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.09 ppg 3* 82-46-2 (+94.2 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.95 ppg 2* 96-107-2 (-43.4 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.22 ppg 1* 134-153-8 (-34.3 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.14 ppg =============================================== TOTAL 352-333-12 (+60.9 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.74 ppg
With this being the case we are not going to play second half plays next year. Nor will we play quarter plays, in-running plays, etc. It will only be first half plays and full game plays. Not only do I think this will improve our performance but it is also good news considering second half plays and in-running plays are much harder to get on due to the timing of them. This should make the plays easier to follow and get on.
The next interesting observation that is going to change the way we play going forward is that Totals did better than Team Totals and/or Sides. Our record on TOTALS ONLY for the last 2 seasons combined is in the table below:
5* 20-14 (+23.0 units) Avg Margin of Victory 2.40 ppg 4* 25-28 (-23.2 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.34 ppg 3* 55-42-3 (+26.4 units) Avg Margin of Victory 2.09 ppg 2* 114-86-3 (+38.8 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.39 ppg 1* 135-163-5 (-44.3 units) Avg Margin of Victory -0.52 ppg ============================================= TOTAL 349-333-11 (+20.7 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.62 ppg
So with this being the case we are going to focus only on totals and not play sides or team totals next year. Not only do I think this will improve our performance but it is also good news considering some people had difficulty getting on some of the team totals. Again, this should make the plays easier to follow and get on. It should also improve production since I will more time to cap each game since I will no longer be capping sides.
One of the most obvious observations that was pointed out by a few people is that our lowest ranked 1* plays have done very poorly, as you can see below from our last 2 years of results:
5* 35-32-2 (-5.5 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.65 ppg 4* 50-50 (-20.0 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.17 ppg 3* 124-98-6 (+48.6 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.42 ppg 2* 211-172-6 (+43.6 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.97 ppg 1* 257-285-11 (-56.5 units) Avg Margin of Victory -0.30 ppg ============================================== TOTAL 677-637-25 (+10.2 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.51 ppg
Using plays that only ranked as 2* or higher would produce much better results:
2*+ 420-352-14 (+66.7 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.06 ppg
Going forward we will not be releasing any 1* plays. If a play does not qualify as a 2* play then it will not be made.
The last observation made from these previous 2 seasons is that early season results have dominated. This follows the RAS model that lines are weakest earliest in the season. During the first 5 weeks of each of the last 2 seasons combined we have seen the following results:
This tells me we're being too conservative early in the season. We are going to place more emphasis on early season games and be more conservative as the season goes along.
We believe these changes listed above will help us improve our results going forward.
I want to touch on a few other items as a part of this recap;
1) We believe 4* and 5* plays have under achieved in two ways. First, the sample size is small. Second, these plays combined have had an average cover margin of 0.78ppg. This should have resulted in positive units, not -25.5. Albeit 0.78 ppg is not ideal and we believe this is partially due to a small sample size, it's enough to beat the juice and show a profit in the long haul.
2) In games decided by 2 points or less our record is -20.9 units. In games decided by 3 points or less we have lost -35.6 units. In games decided by 4 point or less we have lost -62.5 units. This tells me we’ve lost an abnormal % of 1-2 bucket games. This should be closer to break even and this tells me we’ve had bad luck in close games and should do better going forward.
3) We are going to make an effort to post plays a little earlier. I'm sure with uncertainties in injuries status, confirmation of starting line-ups/rotations coming out later in the days, and other variables we will continue to have plays posted in the hour leading up to gametime, but we will also spend more time doing advanced capping and working to post plays earlier before the lines move against us so that we can add some value to our plays.
In closing I'm putting summing up our cumulative progress over the last 2 seasons. Our cumulative net high point was +96.8 units and the lowest point was -16.2 units. 87.5% of the time over the last 2 years we have been in the positive. Additionally, the natural trend line indicates we are headed in the right direction despite the epic free fall over the last month of this most recent season's playoffs.
Ultimately these changes will have a big impact on play quantity. We may only have 150-200 plays per season, but I think this approach will help us with our overall production in the long run and to bounce back from this past season.
Regards,
NBA Guru
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I've gone back though every single play posted over the last 2 seasons and found some interesting trends that I believe will allow us to do better next season. First, some people asked if second half plays did better than our overall results. The answer is surprisingly a big no. Despite being up +10.2 units cumulatively over the last 2 seasons, second half plays were down -29.9 units. It turns out all quarter plays (either 1st quarter or In-Running quarters) were also negative. Full Game plays and First Half plays were by far the most profitable combining for +60.9 units over the two year period. Obviously the other categories dragged us down a lot. The following table represents the results over the last 2 years for FULL GAME and FIRST HALF plays combined:
5* 12-8 (+20.0 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.42 ppg 4* 28-19 (+24.4 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.09 ppg 3* 82-46-2 (+94.2 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.95 ppg 2* 96-107-2 (-43.4 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.22 ppg 1* 134-153-8 (-34.3 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.14 ppg =============================================== TOTAL 352-333-12 (+60.9 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.74 ppg
With this being the case we are not going to play second half plays next year. Nor will we play quarter plays, in-running plays, etc. It will only be first half plays and full game plays. Not only do I think this will improve our performance but it is also good news considering second half plays and in-running plays are much harder to get on due to the timing of them. This should make the plays easier to follow and get on.
The next interesting observation that is going to change the way we play going forward is that Totals did better than Team Totals and/or Sides. Our record on TOTALS ONLY for the last 2 seasons combined is in the table below:
5* 20-14 (+23.0 units) Avg Margin of Victory 2.40 ppg 4* 25-28 (-23.2 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.34 ppg 3* 55-42-3 (+26.4 units) Avg Margin of Victory 2.09 ppg 2* 114-86-3 (+38.8 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.39 ppg 1* 135-163-5 (-44.3 units) Avg Margin of Victory -0.52 ppg ============================================= TOTAL 349-333-11 (+20.7 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.62 ppg
So with this being the case we are going to focus only on totals and not play sides or team totals next year. Not only do I think this will improve our performance but it is also good news considering some people had difficulty getting on some of the team totals. Again, this should make the plays easier to follow and get on. It should also improve production since I will more time to cap each game since I will no longer be capping sides.
One of the most obvious observations that was pointed out by a few people is that our lowest ranked 1* plays have done very poorly, as you can see below from our last 2 years of results:
5* 35-32-2 (-5.5 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.65 ppg 4* 50-50 (-20.0 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.17 ppg 3* 124-98-6 (+48.6 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.42 ppg 2* 211-172-6 (+43.6 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.97 ppg 1* 257-285-11 (-56.5 units) Avg Margin of Victory -0.30 ppg ============================================== TOTAL 677-637-25 (+10.2 units) Avg Margin of Victory 0.51 ppg
Using plays that only ranked as 2* or higher would produce much better results:
2*+ 420-352-14 (+66.7 units) Avg Margin of Victory 1.06 ppg
Going forward we will not be releasing any 1* plays. If a play does not qualify as a 2* play then it will not be made.
The last observation made from these previous 2 seasons is that early season results have dominated. This follows the RAS model that lines are weakest earliest in the season. During the first 5 weeks of each of the last 2 seasons combined we have seen the following results:
This tells me we're being too conservative early in the season. We are going to place more emphasis on early season games and be more conservative as the season goes along.
We believe these changes listed above will help us improve our results going forward.
I want to touch on a few other items as a part of this recap;
1) We believe 4* and 5* plays have under achieved in two ways. First, the sample size is small. Second, these plays combined have had an average cover margin of 0.78ppg. This should have resulted in positive units, not -25.5. Albeit 0.78 ppg is not ideal and we believe this is partially due to a small sample size, it's enough to beat the juice and show a profit in the long haul.
2) In games decided by 2 points or less our record is -20.9 units. In games decided by 3 points or less we have lost -35.6 units. In games decided by 4 point or less we have lost -62.5 units. This tells me we’ve lost an abnormal % of 1-2 bucket games. This should be closer to break even and this tells me we’ve had bad luck in close games and should do better going forward.
3) We are going to make an effort to post plays a little earlier. I'm sure with uncertainties in injuries status, confirmation of starting line-ups/rotations coming out later in the days, and other variables we will continue to have plays posted in the hour leading up to gametime, but we will also spend more time doing advanced capping and working to post plays earlier before the lines move against us so that we can add some value to our plays.
In closing I'm putting summing up our cumulative progress over the last 2 seasons. Our cumulative net high point was +96.8 units and the lowest point was -16.2 units. 87.5% of the time over the last 2 years we have been in the positive. Additionally, the natural trend line indicates we are headed in the right direction despite the epic free fall over the last month of this most recent season's playoffs.
Ultimately these changes will have a big impact on play quantity. We may only have 150-200 plays per season, but I think this approach will help us with our overall production in the long run and to bounce back from this past season.
I've gone over ever play I've made over the last 2 seasons. I started posting at covers 2 weeks into this past NBA season as it started late due to the lock out. If you want to see the plays posted for the first two weeks of this season or for the prior season, they were all posted at bettingtalk in real time. Everything is documented and 100% transparent there.
I have no idea who "pickles" is.
Best,
NBA Guru
0
We is NBA Guru, which is me. It's the royal we.
I've gone over ever play I've made over the last 2 seasons. I started posting at covers 2 weeks into this past NBA season as it started late due to the lock out. If you want to see the plays posted for the first two weeks of this season or for the prior season, they were all posted at bettingtalk in real time. Everything is documented and 100% transparent there.
pickles
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