NBA Friday.. 1-1 yesterday.. 47-31 YTD (59.5%)

I take it your book had 9 1/2. Some books never went higher than 9. A lot of books that went to 9 1/2 went back to 9 about 10 min. later. I don't know whether you could consider the 9 1/2 a commonly available number. If the 9 1/2 wasn't available with Granger in, you would consider he Nets a "no play", right? Also, is whether to use a 5 1/2, 5 or 4 1/2 point edge strictly based on what pointspread range the prospective side falls within, or are there other considerations involved? Thanks.

Milwaukee Bucks +8

Projected score: Bucks 95 Magic 98

Unit split: 95% spread and 5% money line

News that Drew Gooden is out may have just sweetened this bet up considerably, we just need the line adjustment to match.  The fact is that Leuer is a much more efficient player than Gooden is. Leuer is actually the most valuable Bucks, in terms of net (+/-) value regarding the good he does when he is on the court/damage is done when he is on the bench.  Leuer’s value is +6.3 which is quite high, one the other hand, Gooden rank’s 3rd-to-last on the Bucks with a value of -4.5, meaning he puts the Bucks at a 4.5-point deficit.

Most people over-value starters just because they are labeled as starters.  Leuer only narrowly trails Gooden in points, rebounds, assists per 36 mins but he is better where it counts: less turnovers, higher FG%, more blocks.

Charlotte Bobcats +7

Projected score: Bobcats 92 Raptors 94

Unit split: 90% spread and 10% money line

This match-up presents another interesting injury situation.  These are 2 of the worst teams in the NBA and should not be separated by 7 points.  The Bobcats are healthier than they have been since the start of the season, while the raptors are very banged-up.  I did not adjust for Bargnani’s absence, because he has been gone for so many games that the line is adjusted accordingly.  However, the injury to Linus Kleiza is far more important than you may think.

Kleiza is the second most important player on the Raptors, statistically.  Second to whom? You got it, Bargnani.  Bargnani creates a +8.8 net (+/-) for the  Raptors, and Kleiza creates +6.1.  The next most important player is James Johnson at +1.5 so there is a huge gap, meaning Kleiza basically took-over for Bargnani’s all-important lead role, even though he is a bench player.  Kleiza being a bench player is precisely why his injury will fly under the radar.

The Bobcats could easily win this one straight-up. They hold a huge trend advantage here, so I will list the trends that are helping to inflate this line:

Bobcats ATS trends due for progression:

• Bobcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Bobcats are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
• Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
• Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Raptors ATS trends due for regression:

• Raptors are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
• Raptors are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Raptors are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
• Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.

Cleveland Cavaliers +10

Projected score: Heat 102  Cavs 98

Unit split: 95% spread and 5% money line

LeBron makes another return to Cleveland.  You can be sure that the home crowd will be in full attendance and belligerent, god bless them.  The Cavs are a bit banged-up, but they only lose a small advantage with Varejao’s absence.  Varejao contributes +3.4 (+/-) for  team.   Erden needs to step-up and have another big game.  I think it’s better for the Cavs to have Parker and Gibson out, so Sessions gets a full complement of minutes and Gee has another opportunity to prove himself.

The Cavs are quietly tied for the 3rd-best team when it comes to ATS (+/-) at +1.9 and that means they are quite undervalued.  I think the Cavs hold their own in this emotional game against their former star, 10 is just too many points.

New Orleans Hornets +10

Projected score: Hornets 92 Knicks 93

Unit split: 95% spread and 5% money line

This is simply a value play, I don’t have much good to say about the Hornets, and I didn’t have much good to say about the Knicks until Jeremy Lin came around.  All I know is that the books cannot afford to keep setting lines that the Knicks can cover night after night, Jeremy Lin’s emergence has created so much fan fare in a huge city that Knicks homer money is enough to inflate this line, let alone the rest of the country that has been diagnosed with LINsanity, it’s a LINpedemic.

The Hornets appear to be very banged-up, and they are, but all that is on the surface.  If you look at the numbers, Ayon and Vasquez are the most important active players for the Hornets at +8.4 and +4.0 respectively.  Gordon technically makes the biggest difference (+11.4) for the Hornets, but he has only played 6% of Hornets minutes this year.  Vasquez and Ayon, along with the re-emergence of Chris Kaman make the Hornets a worthy team to at least stay within 10 points of the Knicks, if not catch them looking ahead to Dallas and shock them at home.  The Hornets only have 6 wins, but look at who they have beaten: Suns, Celtics, Nuggets, Magic, Bucks, Jazz granted, some of those teams are having down years, but 4 of the 6 still have a record over .500 pct.

It’s worth noting that the Hornets will get Jack back for this game, he isn’t a great contributor in terms of (+/-) at -4.5, but it helps their thin back court.

The Hornets hold a large trend progression/regression advantage so I will note those trends:

Hornets ATS trends due for progression:

• Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Hornets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Hornets are 0-7 ATS in the last 7 meetings vs. New York.

Knicks ATS trends due for regression:

• Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.
• Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
• Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
• Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Knicks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
• Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
• Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
• Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.

All of are plays are backed by around 40% or less of the public, so all the lines should move in our favor if they do move, so hold-off for the best numbers you can get.

Damn capper, I'm basically on all of your plays.  I really didn't look at that Charlotte/Toronto game.  I've faded Toronto for the last two games and of course they cover, I'm through with their games.  So far I have...

NOH +10 at (-105) for 1 Unit
Cavs +10 at (-105) for 1 Unit

I also have 1 unit on the Bucks ML at +290.  The bad thing about my local book is that he doesn't offer any ML plays on teams that are at +8 or above.  I haven't played the Bucks +7.5 yet because hopefully with the news of Gooden being out the line moves.  It hasn't yet though, which I find odd.  GOOD LUCK!

P.S I know I should get a better book so I can get better ML's  but locals are so much more easier to deal with than offshore books.  

 

I'd quit playing at that book until he pays everything. Thats mostlikely what he's doing and it stink!  (or better yet play everything for $10 )

Nice Work!!