Heat @ Cavs +13 O/U: 197.5
When Miami first visited Cleveland this year, on December 2nd, they were -5 point favorites. Today they are at -13. Is this the biggest variance of any matchup this season? I think so. And the scary thing is that I have this one at -13.5 Heat. Either way, this game is very difficult to handicap from my perspective. LeBron coming back “home” but this time there really isn’t much hope from these Cleveland fans and players, since expecting to win this game ia pretty unrealistic in my opinion. The question is, how hard will this Cavs team play to try to at least keep this respectable? Hard to say. In that first meeting, the veteran players were pretty motivated but just couldn’t do anything about it. This time around, these younger guys, might not feel the same ‘responsibility’, thus looser play could lead to a more competitive game. Either way, I’m not touching this side with a 10-foot pole. The O/U’s in the previous 3 meetings were: 190 O; 194 O; 198.5 O. No matter how high the books raised the #, the OVER hit every time. Well, Cavs have played 8 straight to the UNDER and Miami’s D could be suffocating when they want to. The question is, will they want to tonight? Leans: PASS all around.
Rockets @ Nets +6.5 O/U: 204
One team is still competing for the playoffs, while the other one is, well, finishing out the slate and getting ready to hit some golf-balls in the off-season. Nets are coming off 3-game roadtrip. Actually they’ve played 6 straight games in different cities now. Look at their schedule: 2 road, 1 home, 3 road, 1 home tonight, 2 road. They did have 2 days off prior to this one, but must go back on the road tomorrow to play the Knicks. This is a tough stretch for this squad, especially without their star PG. The Rockets are playing good ball right now, winning 5 of their last 6 games. This team is still competing hard for the playoffs but might be a little too late as they are 2.5 games out. This is a winnable game for them but I can’t help and think that this line is way too inflated here. At the end of February these squads played in Houston and the Rockets were -8 point favorites (SA: -2 on the road). Now they’re -6.5 / -7 on the road? Even if you account for DWill being out, this line has all the ‘value’ on the Nets, and none on the ‘Rockets’. Tough to win in NBA, when you’re constantly giving up 2-3 buckets of ‘value’. The O/U in that first game was 207 and it cleared it by a big margin. This one is set a bit lower. Hmmm. Both teams are playing decent D (by THEIR standards) right now and I see both teams struggling a bit from the field early. Leans: Nets (too much value on them) and UNDER.
Warriors @ Thunder -10 O/U: 215
We have one team that doesn’t play any defense facing another one that is playing the best defense of their season. Which one do you think I favor? Thunder actually have ‘revenge’ in this one as they’ve lost to the Warriors on the road in mid-February (they’re 1-1 against them this season). The Warriors are coming off a 2-game home win streak, after snapping a 6 game losing one. This team is 2-10 in their last 12 on the road, with wins coming @ Washington and @ Cleveland. They were mathematically eliminated from the playoff contention last night. The O/U’s in the previous 2 meetings were: 216 O and 217.5 U. This one is in a similar range, but have the books properly accounted for Thunder’s new defensive proficiency? Hmmm… Leans: Thunder and UNDER.
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