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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    My thoughts on Rockets potential fatal flaw(s)

    simple3
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    simple3
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    Posted: May. 3, 2018 - 12:54 AM ET #1

    Disclaimer: I'm not a Basketball expert, just sharing my thoughts.

    It may come as a surprise to you that the most efficient team in basketball doesn't actually have uber efficient shooters like GSW.

    Did you know Ryan Anderson is the rockets most efficient 3 pt shooter at 38.6%? Best for 51st in the league. 

    Rockets make their living taking the most efficient shots in the game which are 3 point shots and points in the restricted area. The thing is, they're succeeding because of their volume not because they hit these shots at a high clip. 

    Now they've met the Utah Jazz who are one of the best teams in the league at limiting 3 point opportunities. 

    In game one they only took 32 3pt shots but hit a crazy 53.1%, tonight they took 37 but regressed to 28%. Their season average as a team is 36.2% good for 14th in the league. 

    Rockets averaged 42 3 point attempts per game in the regular season, if you can limit their volume they can be beaten.

    On the flip side, defensively Houston is one of the worst teams in the restricted area. I've heard no one talk about this.

    Opponents average 29 FGA in the restricted area vs Houston which is 4th worst in the league and they hit those shots at a 64.3% clip which is 12th worst in the league.

    Rudy Gobert ate them alive there in the first half going 5-7 for 13 points. He didn't take one shot in the 2nd half for whatever reason.

    If they make it past Utah they will come up against the uber efficient GSW who's shooting % differential is massive.
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Disclaimer: I'm not a Basketball expert, just sharing my thoughts.

    It may come as a surprise to you that the most efficient team in basketball doesn't actually have uber efficient shooters like GSW.

    Did you know Ryan Anderson is the rockets most efficient 3 pt shooter at 38.6%? Best for 51st in the league. 

    Rockets make their living taking the most efficient shots in the game which are 3 point shots and points in the restricted area. The thing is, they're succeeding because of their volume not because they hit these shots at a high clip. 

    Now they've met the Utah Jazz who are one of the best teams in the league at limiting 3 point opportunities. 

    In game one they only took 32 3pt shots but hit a crazy 53.1%, tonight they took 37 but regressed to 28%. Their season average as a team is 36.2% good for 14th in the league. 

    Rockets averaged 42 3 point attempts per game in the regular season, if you can limit their volume they can be beaten.

    On the flip side, defensively Houston is one of the worst teams in the restricted area. I've heard no one talk about this.

    Opponents average 29 FGA in the restricted area vs Houston which is 4th worst in the league and they hit those shots at a 64.3% clip which is 12th worst in the league.

    Rudy Gobert ate them alive there in the first half going 5-7 for 13 points. He didn't take one shot in the 2nd half for whatever reason.

    If they make it past Utah they will come up against the uber efficient GSW who's shooting % differential is massive.
     
    freshmen
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    Posted: May. 3, 2018 - 1:36 AM ET #2

    amazing this guy has a brain!!!
    Reply
    amazing this guy has a brain!!!
     
    simple3
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    Posted: May. 3, 2018 - 1:48 AM ET #3

    Thanks  It's interesting when you think it about it, if GSW adopted Houston's gameplan they would be a lot better at it because they have much more accurate shooters (The big 3 all in the top 20 and above 41%) then again GSW can take 40 3s when they want to.

    I read an interesting article which details how Warriors are now actually shooting a ton of midrange jumpers which is the most inefficient shot in the game but they're hitting it at the best clip in history: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mid-range-jumper-is-the-nbas-worst-shot-except-for-the-golden-state-warriors-1521557144

    Whilst it's still a poor shot statistically if that's opening up the restricted area and the 3 point line then it has benefits you can't directly show. That's the thing with Houston, they won't take midrange twos so they don't have that joker card to keep these elite defenses as honest as they should be. 


    Reply
    Thanks  It's interesting when you think it about it, if GSW adopted Houston's gameplan they would be a lot better at it because they have much more accurate shooters (The big 3 all in the top 20 and above 41%) then again GSW can take 40 3s when they want to.

    I read an interesting article which details how Warriors are now actually shooting a ton of midrange jumpers which is the most inefficient shot in the game but they're hitting it at the best clip in history: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mid-range-jumper-is-the-nbas-worst-shot-except-for-the-golden-state-warriors-1521557144

    Whilst it's still a poor shot statistically if that's opening up the restricted area and the 3 point line then it has benefits you can't directly show. That's the thing with Houston, they won't take midrange twos so they don't have that joker card to keep these elite defenses as honest as they should be. 


     
    scooby-doos
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    Posted: May. 3, 2018 - 1:50 AM ET #4

    live and die by the 3.....  when they go in...great.. when they don't chaos....   
    Reply
    live and die by the 3.....  when they go in...great.. when they don't chaos....   
     
    Digitalkarma
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    Posts: 57632
    Posted: May. 3, 2018 - 1:56 AM ET #5

    Rockets dont play defense and need Harden's free throws to win games for them. 3's are good and all but when you start getting cold at the wrong time it dont mean jack. Warriors have better big men and better at playing inside and out and better shooters as you mentioned. Better ball distributors too. Warriors play team ball. Rockets is still the Harden show and CP3 show. 
    Sip on that plus money honey!
    Reply
    Rockets dont play defense and need Harden's free throws to win games for them. 3's are good and all but when you start getting cold at the wrong time it dont mean jack. Warriors have better big men and better at playing inside and out and better shooters as you mentioned. Better ball distributors too. Warriors play team ball. Rockets is still the Harden show and CP3 show. 
     
     
    freshmen
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    Posted: May. 3, 2018 - 2:05 AM ET #6

    GSW almost play like the spurs can, they pass it phenomenally, can be great defensively and when the pace picks up no one can match them.. Houston are bums man come on shooting 40 3's a game as a game plan isn't winning anyone a title  
    Reply
    GSW almost play like the spurs can, they pass it phenomenally, can be great defensively and when the pace picks up no one can match them.. Houston are bums man come on shooting 40 3's a game as a game plan isn't winning anyone a title  
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