Been thinking long and hard about this game and the plays I've decided on are:
Mavs +7 for 6 units
Celtics ML for 8 units to win 3 units
Essentially this is risking about 3 units to win 9 units for the Celtics to win by 1-6. A Celtics win by exactly 7 still nets a profit of 3 units.
Reasoning here is that despite the Celtics massively outplaying the Mavs in G1, the Celtics won the game by 18. The line for G1 was 6.5 so despite everything that went right for the Celtics and everything that went wrong for the Mavs, the Celtics still only covered the spread by 12.
I think that the Mavs will make adjustments and also Kyrie should have a much better game. Kyrie went 6-19 and 0-5 from 3. This is very much an outlier for him and I think he will step it up in G2. I also think we may see some negative regression from the Celtics who shot 38% from 3 when normally they average 36% from 3. For example, Porzingis hitting those deep 3's don't count on that happening again.
Given all of those factors, I think the Mavs will play better and keep this game closer. I don't think they will do enough to win the game as they lack the offensive firepower to keep up with the Celtics. That said, 3 units to win 9 units is an enticing risk/reward for me to play this game in this way.
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