Posted:
#126
Quote Originally Posted by JB9569:
Hey Odds ..great call with okc last night. I wanted to get ur thoughts on the Clippers v Suns matchup this evening. I always like to fade the older squad on the tail end of a B2B in this case i like the matchup even more because the clippers are 3-0 ats and 3-0 SU so far this year when both them and they're opponent are playing on no days rest. i know its not a huge sample size but with the clippers only laying 2.5 i like them to cover that number. Any thoughts on this game would be great !
Not enough for me to go on in that game for a wager. Clips are playing better than the Suns through the season both su & ats on 2nd legs of b2b's:Hey Odds ..great call with okc last night. I wanted to get ur thoughts on the Clippers v Suns matchup this evening. I always like to fade the older squad on the tail end of a B2B in this case i like the matchup even more because the clippers are 3-0 ats and 3-0 SU so far this year when both them and they're opponent are playing on no days rest. i know its not a huge sample size but with the clippers only laying 2.5 i like them to cover that number. Any thoughts on this game would be great !
Clips: 6-2su & 6-2ats
Suns: 5-5su & 5-5ats
However as far as performance goes erasing those numbers from my head, my thoughts are telling me that I do remember witnessing on more than one occasion tired legs from the Clips even though the 2nd leg of b2b number doesn't tell us that. With that in mind I can surely understand a jump shooting team like the Suns having a chance at winning at home tonight vs a team w/ 12 losses (7 on the road). Thought's like that kept me from thinking about a Clipper wager. If you put a gun to my head I would say the Suns +2.5 pretty fast just on a hunch that those numbers always take a step back to the 50% mark at some point (referencing the 6-2ats Clips record)...
My only wager this even was on Heat@Jazz under 199 made a couple of hours ago as i'm going on the fact that the Jazz are averging 90.8ppg at home vs top 10 defensive fg% teams. They have had a model of 5 games thus far to go on and produced scores of the following at the end of regulation:
102
78
91
96
87
I like info like this because I can then take those number's and apply them to the Heat ranked 6th in the NBA at defensive fg% (42.4%) and understand that the 199 was the 2nd highest # set in any of those games they played (191.5, 183.5, 184.5, 187.5 & 202) as the 191.5 vs the Sixers in the Jazz's 1st home game of the season was the only total they exceeded in this situation. The following 4 have all stayed under the total and as far as i;m concerned this 199 that was set was only set on one thing (public perception) just like the 202 that was set in the last situation vs the OKC Thunder. That 90.8ppg the Jazz are averaging in this situation is 8.8ppg lower than their seasonal average at home of 99.6ppg. That was value I just couldn't pass up...
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