It's NBA Playoff Time..... And The Most Overvauled Team Is.................

Son of a gun, I had big plans to post during the playoffs but been to busy and with so many games everyday I could not keep-up.

Had plans to post before the 2cd round and conference finals as well but could not get all the info together in time.

The Knicks did prove to be overvalued as they finished just 3-3 ATS in round 1 and 2-4 ATS in the 2cd round while being booted from the playoffs. Which would have been my value series winner of round 2, Pacers +175 over Knicks.

Geez lousie, lost both my best bet futures with injuries 1st to Westbrook and then to Griffin with a high ankle sprain the day before game 5.

Losing Westbrook will go down as one-of my biggest disappointments ever as I was confident the Thunder could of given the Heat all they wanted and more, and still belive they would of.

Coming into the conference finals my method had the Grizz the most overvalued team of the playoffs by a huge 2.28 pts.

I did post on a number of threads about not over-reacting to the Grizz winning 11 straight ATS and called the Spurs in game 1 a play-of-the-year type play because of the Grizz being so overvalued.

Knowing this helps us understnd why the Spurs swept them 4-0.

Don't over-react to that sweep, the Grizz were nothing more than a very average playoff team (and their.9 FG % diff tells us this) who were very fortunate to play and beat 2 teams that lost one-of-their 2 best players andf were overvalued in the process.

Anyways, on to the 2013 NBA FINALS.........................................

Let's break-down some "key stat battles"  and then see what ole man history has to say..........................................................

Field Goal % differential...............................

Heat --- 5.6 %,   Heat by 1.7

Spurs --- 3.9 %

POWER RATINGS........................................

Heat --- 53.24, Heat by 1.24

Spurs --- 52

Since 1980, the better team by .75 or more is 18-4 (81.8%) at winning the series. Favors the Heat.

TOTAL TEAM EFFECIENCY.............................................

This includes, 2 pt, 3 pt, free throws and turnovers.

Heat --- 5.64 %, Heat by 1.34 %

Spurs --- 4.3 %

ADJUSTED POINT MARGIN..............................................

based on each teams play on the court.

Heat --- 9.11,  Heat by 2.2

Spurs --- 6.91

Since 1980, teams better by 1.25 or more are 18-4 (81.8%) at winning the series. Favors Heat.

Now we get into a combination of those and one of my-all-time-favorite situations in all of sports, and it's nothing but money.......................................

When a team is at least 1% or better in total team effeciency and .75 or better in the power rastings it's an insane 10-1 at winning the series............................................

Strongly favors the Heat...............................................

This called such shocking upset as Pistons over the Lakers in 2004 and Celtics over the Lakers in 2008, with damn-near every pundit, expert and  with sharps throwing their money down  on the Lakers in those 2 series.

It also called 3 of the Spurs series wins, including over the Knicks, Pistons and the Cavs.

Let's breakdown how to play this incredible situation........................

Game 1's ---- 11-0 SU, 10-1 ATS

After a loss --- 14-2 SU, 11-6-1 ATS.

First Close-out game  --- 7-3 SU

2cd Close-out game --- 3-0 SU

Not sure of ATS record in each game but 8-5 ATS overall in the 13  close-out games.

Should be a profitable NBA Finals if you follow this.

I'll be coming with a best bet play on the Heat to win the title and in game 1..............................................................

Good Luck Boys and enjoy all the great games coming-up.....................................

I've been playing around trying to come-up with my own line, similar to what I've had success with in the NFL playoffs.

 The early indications look very promising.

Basically all I do is take the adjusted pt margin and give 4 pts to the home team, so Heat by 2.2 plus 4 = Heat -6.2.

In the past 3 years it's gone 18-7 ATS with a 1 pt diff between my line and the closing line. It's important to use the closing line as that reflects public perception.

Based on the situation we will give additional pts to teams.

I'll post this each game and see how we do.

The current line at most places is 5 which fits right along with backing the Heat in game 1.

I did post my line a number of times on different threads, you might have seen my line of Spurs -7.7 over the Grizz in game 1 with the actual line a measly -4 to -4.5 mostly because many people over-reacted to the Grizz.

A small play on the over based on the Heat being one-of the most offensive effeiecient teams in history and the Spurs being very effiecent offensively as well.

10 unit best bet on Heat -5...............

3 unit over 190 ......

Son of a gun, Heat go down in game 1.

Heat Players claimed to be fatigued from the Pacers series, whatever the case according to my adjusted point margin the Heat actually out-played the Spurs and should of won the game by 2 pts.

A close game but in the end the Spurs were fortunate to win, but would of covered none the less. 

STAY WITH THE INFO ABOVE, IT SHOULD BOUNCE BACK AND FINISH WITH A WINNING ATS RECORD WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE

I'll be coming large again on the Heat in game 2..............................

Both teams shot the ball poorly in game 1 after being very effiecent offensivly in the regular season, will look hard to take a small play on the over again in game 2.

Any tennis fans out there can check-out my French open final write-up in the tennis section using the "key stat battlers" for tennis..................................................

Coming large game 2 following a loss.................................

Heat -6 over Spurs --- 10 units

Heat OVER 190 --- 7 units

The Heats incredibly efficient offense roared it's head  in game 2

When you factor in 3 pt shots, free throws and TO, the Heat shot 53.65 % in game 2, outshooting the Spurs by a whopping 12.07 %.

The Heat came into the Finals the most efficeint offense of any team to make the finals since 1974 the 1st year the league tracked TO's.

The Heat's 50.01 %  ave per game in the regular season  was better than the previous Celtics 1987 team's 49 % and the Lakers 87 and 85 team's 48.9 %.

Unfortunately it did not help us get the over.....................

In hindsight suppose I should of taken the Heats total pts to go over, might have to look into that for possible future use.

Looking at the 11 teams above, we can add this.............................

back these teams when the series is tied...............9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS....................................

Rarely do the teams winning a series trail from the 3rd game on.......................................

I'll be coming big again with a playoff game of the year type play on the Heat spread and ML.........................................

Game 3

Heat +2 over Spurs --- 11 units to win 10

Heat ML over Spurs (+110)  --- 5 units to win 5.5 units

Heat/Spurs over 188 --- 5.5 units to win 5 units

Heat team total OVER 93 --- 5.5 units to win 5 units

Geez Louise we took a beatdown in game 3.

Will pass on  game 4, a huge line movement, to many people buying into the Heat coming off a loss stat.

My line is Spurs -1.8, with a 1 pt diff with closing line, which we will have for sure my line does  well.

I've seen this situation with big public awareness to such things before and it doesn't turnout well for the public more than not so I'll pass on the game and hold-out hope the Heat can pull it out.

Game 4   UNDER 187 --- 3.3 units to win 3 units 

Intteresting game 4 for sure, can Legron bring it tonight ?

History and the key stat battles tell us the Heat should win the title, rarely does the series winner trail in the series at this point, I'll side with history as I always do and ride the Heat with a best bet play............................................

Heat -1 --- 11 units to win 10 units

I'll side with the over as well.........................................

Good luck and enjoy the remaing games in this years NBA finals........................................

Heat/Spurs  OVER 188.5 --- 5.5 units to win 5 units

Heat OVER 94.5 --- 5.5 units to win 5 units