It's NBA Playoff Time..... And The Most Overvauled Team Is.................

It's NBA Playoff time once again, and you know what that means, we check-in with "the key stat battles" that have a high correlation to winning NBA games and NBA Titles. When teams win these all-important battles on the court the odds go way-up for them to win  the game.

The most important stat in basketball with the highest correlation to winning NBA games, win this battle and you'll win about 79% of the time.

Field goal % Differential

1. OKC 5.6%

1. Heat 5.6%

3. Spurs 3.9%

4. Clippers 3.5%

5. Nuggets 3.4%

6. Celtics 2.4%

7. Warriors 1.9%

8. Pacers 1.6%

9. Hawks 1.4%

10. Grizz .9%

11. Rockets .7%

12. Lakers .5%

13. Bulls -.6%

14. Knicks -1%

15. Nets -1.4%

16. Bucks -2.9%

Largest FG % Mismatch.....................................Heat over Bucks by 8.5%.

Wow, 8.5 is huge, compare that to last years largest mismatch, OKC over Mavs by 3.6% and OKC won 4-0 su, 2-2 ATS.

Closest match-up ......................Indy .2 over Hawks.

Last season closest..................Denver/Lakers even, series went 7 games the only other series to go 7 games was Clips Grizz and the was 2cd closest  with Clips just .5 better than Grizz.

Best value as far as series odds...........................Celtics over Knicks by 3.4% ...................Clippers over Grizz by 2.6%

The Most Overvalued Team in This Years Playoffs.....................................The Knicks by -1.45 pts per game. They were the most overvalued last year as well.

The Largest  Value Mismatch.......................................The Heat over Bucks by 2.13 pts

2. OKC over Rockets by 2.08 pts, a close 2cd.

2012 Was Heat over Knicks , Heat won 4-1 su , 4-1 ATS

2011 Was Mavs over Portland, Mavs won 4-2 su, 6-0 ATS

2010 Was Suns over Portland, Suns won 4-2 su, 4-2 ATS

The Largest Value Mismatch is on a 3 year opening round tear of 14-3 ATS. Ride the Heat boys !!! With all that said, I don't like backing big DD favs and will tread a little lighter, but the success of this method can't be denied.

Teams With All The Common Denominators in "The Key Stat Battles" of Past NBA Champs..............................................

1. OKC

2. Clippers

Heat and Spurs are to weak in rebounding compared to past champs.

Heat 47.6% rebs

Spurs 47.7%

Since 1974 when the league began tracking offensive and defensive rebs just 2 teams, actually 1 team, the Rockets won the title twice as a weak rebounding team under 49.25 % rebs.

2 of 29 champs since 1974 is 6.9%.

Teams that have these common denominators rarely lose a series to teams who do not have them.

The above info along with the FG % differential strongly suggest the best value series winner is................................................Clippers over Grizz.

Last season across all the key stat battles the Clips had a .31 ave per stat battle better than the Grizz.

This season the Clips have a very nice 1.66 ave per stat battle over the Grizz with 2 battles being over 2  including the most important FG% diff , rarely would such a team lose the series against an opponent they are so much better then.

My first best bet play goes on the Clippers to win the series over the Grizz.............................10 units (-175) ..............................................

So watch out for the Celts in their Knicks series...

.....................................65 Game Winners.........................................

The Heat became the 16th team to win 65 games or more in NBA history.

12 of the previous 15 won the title (80%).

How do the Heat stack-up against these past 65 game winners ?

2013 Heat pt margin of 7.87..................................ranks 13th of the 16 teams.

Of the 4  -  65 game winners under 8.5 just 2 won the title (50%)

While 10 of 11  - 65 game winners over 8.5 won the title (90.9%)

2013 Heat 47.6% rebounding, ranks 16th of the 16 teams. They are so very far behind the nearest team that there is no team to compare them to.

No team finished below 50% and just 1 of 15  team finished below 51%.

2013 Heat 5.6% FG% diff, .......................ranks tied for 3rd best, of the 3 teams under 3% just 1 won the title (33.3%), most recently 2007 Mavs finished 15th with a 2% and lost in the 1st round.

2013 Heat rank strong here in the most important battle, but they show extreme weakness in other areas that should not be ignored.

The info strongly suggest 65 game winners who don't have balance fail to win titles more than not.

IS OKC BETTER OR WORSE THAN LAST YEAR ?

2012 OKC 6.2   pt margin

2013 OKC  9.21   pt margin, better by 3pts. One of a handful of teams in history to have a pt margin over 9 pts.

2012 OKC  4.4%   FG% diff

2013 OKC  5.6%   FG% diff, better by 1.2%

2012 OKC 49.93% rebs

2013   OKC 50.03% rebs

The info above strongly suggest OKC is playing on another level from last season and would be ranked no.1 in   my  power ratings by more than 1 pt over the next best team.

In the NBA finals since 1974 teams at least 1 pt better in my power ratings at the end of the regular season are a incredible 17-4 (81%) at winning the series

It seems everyone and their brother, cousin, uncle, mom, dad, grandma, think the Heat are a damn-near lock to win the title, even so-called experts and pundits are saying it, well boys, the info above disputes this big time, it strongly suggest the Thunder should be the favorites to win the title, not the Heat.

I'm coming with my 2cd best bet play and it's on the Thunder to win the 2013 NBA Title.....................................10 units (+550)...............

Clippers -5 game 1 over Grizz   --- 5.5 units to win 5 units

All my picks will be available in the NBA contest on the site, check-in about 5 minutes before game time. Last season this info roared in the opening round......................................

Good luck boys and enjoy all the great playoffs game today...........................................................

2012 Heat  50.25%...................

Interesting series according to the indicators.

The Knicks get out-shot in FG% but they win the TO battle big, they have the fewest TO in the league and they win the 3 pt battle big taking the most 3 pters and taking roughly 600 more than their opponents and shooting a higher %, a double whammy.

A big advantage but as they say, live by the 3 , die by the 3.

The problem with the C's is they finished dead last in one of my power ratings,  mostly because of their pathetic rebounding.

I think at this point I'll pass on fading the Knicks and look for a better oppurtunity in the 2cd round, hoping like hell I won't be kicking myself if they get upset..................................................

I'd be nice if they could roll the C's  and Indy struggles VS Hawks which FG % diff suggest might be possible that would set-up good value on the Pacers next round.

NBA Playoffs to Date --- 1-0 ATS, won 5 units

Nice to get off to a good start and get that first win.

I'll side with the Heat and OKC today, pretty confident you'll get at least 1 win with a good chance for both.

Celtics did get the cover even after having one of the worst 2cd halves in NBA history. The Knicks were out-shot by 1% in FG% but managed to win the game, doubt they get-away with that in round 2. We'll see what the Knicks show from here............................

tremendous thread.  i remember u from last few playoffs and you were on a tear from what i recall. BOL here too sir

where are you on tonights game bro, very good read also

Incredible analysis, I'm on a similiar power ranking structure myself and follow a lot of the same trends that you do. That being said, for "value" I've already taken the Nuggets as my futures pick to win it all.

4/22/13 I'm rolling heavy on the Clippers, leaning Brooklyn. GL sir, thank you for the work. I'm going to be referencing this thread the rest of the way.

Thanks for the kind words guys....................tonight I'd lean Bulls +5.5, get 6 if you can.

I never like backing teams off big blow-out wins and especially true when the teams are more evenly match as is the case here but the Bulls injuries worry me about..................................

I normally don't like seperating home and road stats as obviously most all teams will put up better numbers at home, overall stats seem to work fine as a good indicator to team strength. 

Boy oh boy, son of a gun. To bad Westbrook is out, geez..............there goes my futures on the Thunder. I would of loved to see Thunder/Heat NBA Final.

Well, maybe that opens the door for  the Clippers, I'll take  a small play to win the west.

Clippers --- to win west (+1000) -- 3 units............................

I love the Clippers tonight, and to win game 6 and wrap-up the series.

I'd lean Bulls in game 6 as well, they should wrap-up that series.

The largest value mismatch did it again guys, 4-0 su and 3-1 ATS with Heat over Bucks.

That brings the 4 year record in the 1st round to an off-the-charts 17-4 ATS backing the largest value mismatch in every game of the series.