The finals are currently shaping up to be NY-OKC. Per Jeff Sagarin, right now OKC would be -2.24 at a neutral site. Against his current Top 10, OKC is 23-10 and NY is just 16-12.
Goid stuff dog ........
My line -4.64 based on regular season.
But playoffs version PR could be far different.
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Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
The finals are currently shaping up to be NY-OKC. Per Jeff Sagarin, right now OKC would be -2.24 at a neutral site. Against his current Top 10, OKC is 23-10 and NY is just 16-12.
Closeout game for Knicks, we don't use my lines but back a Team clearly better which according to both PR's Knicks are clearly better.
However, games 4 and 5 are not always the best plays to make.
Thus far in the playoffs with teams clearly better 3-2 ATS.
The Knicks did survive regression through 2 games , very few teams have done this, with game 4 closeout game not being the best to back the closeout team and Knicks still a possible regression fade I'll take 1 more stable at fading this current Monster.
Cavs +3.5 (-118) over Knicks --- 1.18 units
I'd try to get +3 if possible to have a bit of room to lose but cover. That could prove important because of regression Knicks may fail to cover but could win SU.
I would take pts not ML although you could sprinkle small amount on ML.
Now here is something very interesting , with what has already been talked about in this thread after Knicks game 3 win. When regression comes it could very well come big.
From 2007 to 2024 in conference finals, teams off a SU & ATS WIN after trailing by 2 games or more and with a 1 pt difference between my line and the closing line is 10-1 ATS.
This applies to Cavs if they can get the SU win tonight if we have a 1 pt difference with my line and closing line.
Which seems likely.
2
My Lines ...............
Cavs -1.62 over Knicks
Closeout game for Knicks, we don't use my lines but back a Team clearly better which according to both PR's Knicks are clearly better.
However, games 4 and 5 are not always the best plays to make.
Thus far in the playoffs with teams clearly better 3-2 ATS.
The Knicks did survive regression through 2 games , very few teams have done this, with game 4 closeout game not being the best to back the closeout team and Knicks still a possible regression fade I'll take 1 more stable at fading this current Monster.
Cavs +3.5 (-118) over Knicks --- 1.18 units
I'd try to get +3 if possible to have a bit of room to lose but cover. That could prove important because of regression Knicks may fail to cover but could win SU.
I would take pts not ML although you could sprinkle small amount on ML.
Now here is something very interesting , with what has already been talked about in this thread after Knicks game 3 win. When regression comes it could very well come big.
From 2007 to 2024 in conference finals, teams off a SU & ATS WIN after trailing by 2 games or more and with a 1 pt difference between my line and the closing line is 10-1 ATS.
This applies to Cavs if they can get the SU win tonight if we have a 1 pt difference with my line and closing line.
The only real question here is, Do the Knicks lay down, take the payoff and celebrate at home with the stars. we've all seen that happen before, it's the NBA, and the line is definitely hinting that way. Cavs have publicly declared defeat, "tired legs, we played too many games without rest, we have no energy, coach says I have no idea" Really bad body language as well. Gambling instinct says , trap, take Cavs, everything else says walkover sweep.
1
The only real question here is, Do the Knicks lay down, take the payoff and celebrate at home with the stars. we've all seen that happen before, it's the NBA, and the line is definitely hinting that way. Cavs have publicly declared defeat, "tired legs, we played too many games without rest, we have no energy, coach says I have no idea" Really bad body language as well. Gambling instinct says , trap, take Cavs, everything else says walkover sweep.
Another, let's call it irony, most posts and bets I've seen are on the Cavs. Reason, because everybody knows that everyone is betting the Knicks. It's like Yogi Berra said "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded" And a lot of these are pretty square Joe's. No one trusts the NBA
1
Another, let's call it irony, most posts and bets I've seen are on the Cavs. Reason, because everybody knows that everyone is betting the Knicks. It's like Yogi Berra said "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded" And a lot of these are pretty square Joe's. No one trusts the NBA
I’ve been reading your stuff, especially in the NFL forms, for a number of years. always really enjoy your analytics and is a NYK Homer can’t wait to see you right up for the finals. this team looks completely different than it did in the regular season, will it continue I don’t know, but to me neither the Spurs nor the thunder are the 95-96 bulls and if we keep playing like this we’ve got a damn good chance.
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Claw
I’ve been reading your stuff, especially in the NFL forms, for a number of years. always really enjoy your analytics and is a NYK Homer can’t wait to see you right up for the finals. this team looks completely different than it did in the regular season, will it continue I don’t know, but to me neither the Spurs nor the thunder are the 95-96 bulls and if we keep playing like this we’ve got a damn good chance.
Claw I’ve been reading your stuff, especially in the NFL forms, for a number of years. always really enjoy your analytics and is a NYK Homer can’t wait to see you right up for the finals. this team looks completely different than it did in the regular season, will it continue I don’t know, but to me neither the Spurs nor the thunder are the 95-96 bulls and if we keep playing like this we’ve got a damn good chance.
Yes Knicks on another level right now ..........
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Quote Originally Posted by iamnotpeterose:
Claw I’ve been reading your stuff, especially in the NFL forms, for a number of years. always really enjoy your analytics and is a NYK Homer can’t wait to see you right up for the finals. this team looks completely different than it did in the regular season, will it continue I don’t know, but to me neither the Spurs nor the thunder are the 95-96 bulls and if we keep playing like this we’ve got a damn good chance.
Road teams in CC going for a sweep are 6-2 SU last 8. But 6 of the last 8 home teams won or lost by 3 or less. I dont see huge value either way on this game. Cavs are a dead team. I got the Knicks in the series so I am not interested in finding an angle. Better options out there I think Gl
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Quote Originally Posted by smellybunty:
Road teams in CC going for a sweep are 6-2 SU last 8. But 6 of the last 8 home teams won or lost by 3 or less. I dont see huge value either way on this game. Cavs are a dead team. I got the Knicks in the series so I am not interested in finding an angle. Better options out there I think Gl
The only real question here is, Do the Knicks lay down, take the payoff and celebrate at home with the stars. we've all seen that happen before, it's the NBA, and the line is definitely hinting that way. Cavs have publicly declared defeat, "tired legs, we played too many games without rest, we have no energy, coach says I have no idea" Really bad body language as well. Gambling instinct says , trap, take Cavs, everything else says walkover sweep.
Quote Originally Posted by LVPrince:
Another, let's call it irony, most posts and bets I've seen are on the Cavs. Reason, because everybody knows that everyone is betting the Knicks. It's like Yogi Berra said "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded" And a lot of these are pretty square Joe's. No one trusts the NBA
Alot of truth to that info ...........
0
Quote Originally Posted by LVPrince:
The only real question here is, Do the Knicks lay down, take the payoff and celebrate at home with the stars. we've all seen that happen before, it's the NBA, and the line is definitely hinting that way. Cavs have publicly declared defeat, "tired legs, we played too many games without rest, we have no energy, coach says I have no idea" Really bad body language as well. Gambling instinct says , trap, take Cavs, everything else says walkover sweep.
Quote Originally Posted by LVPrince:
Another, let's call it irony, most posts and bets I've seen are on the Cavs. Reason, because everybody knows that everyone is betting the Knicks. It's like Yogi Berra said "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded" And a lot of these are pretty square Joe's. No one trusts the NBA
this is getting ridiculous, Knicks in regression, they were supposed to be regressing but instead they played at such a high level they now go into another playoff regression fade.
Back to back regression with this regression being on a higher level of regression.
There are levels to regression, the first one was very minimal this one much higher level and being back to back regression means Knicks are deep into regression.
No doubt it is coming, and remember they will be moving up quite a bit in class of opponent.
Now with that said, I ran the numbers and the Knicks rate the strongest team in my playoff only PR since 2001.
2017 Warriors did surpass the 2001 Lakers but now Knicks beat them by roughly 1 pt.
More on this tomorrow with no games I'll have some info.
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0-1, lost 1.18 units
this is getting ridiculous, Knicks in regression, they were supposed to be regressing but instead they played at such a high level they now go into another playoff regression fade.
Back to back regression with this regression being on a higher level of regression.
There are levels to regression, the first one was very minimal this one much higher level and being back to back regression means Knicks are deep into regression.
No doubt it is coming, and remember they will be moving up quite a bit in class of opponent.
Now with that said, I ran the numbers and the Knicks rate the strongest team in my playoff only PR since 2001.
2017 Warriors did surpass the 2001 Lakers but now Knicks beat them by roughly 1 pt.
More on this tomorrow with no games I'll have some info.
I pass on the game tonight, my lines would be the same with OKC at home.
I have OKC to win series but now with Jalen out and AJ out I am not sure OKC can do it. Maybe Jalen can play if needed, possible, teams always play games to fool opponents.
Too many "if's".
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I pass on the game tonight, my lines would be the same with OKC at home.
I have OKC to win series but now with Jalen out and AJ out I am not sure OKC can do it. Maybe Jalen can play if needed, possible, teams always play games to fool opponents.
0-1, lost 1.18 units this is getting ridiculous, Knicks in regression, they were supposed to be regressing but instead they played at such a high level they now go into another playoff regression fade. Back to back regression with this regression being on a higher level of regression. There are levels to regression, the first one was very minimal this one much higher level and being back to back regression means Knicks are deep into regression. No doubt it is coming, and remember they will be moving up quite a bit in class of opponent. Now with that said, I ran the numbers and the Knicks rate the strongest team in my playoff only PR since 2001. 2017 Warriors did surpass the 2001 Lakers but now Knicks beat them by roughly 1 pt. More on this tomorrow with no games I'll have some info.
Knicks are officially all time outlier tier in terms of PPG differential in playoff history. I mentioned this but the fact that they are winning nearly every game in wire to wire blow out fashion is unprecedented. All time goat team like 17 warriors would at least lose first halves routinely. Yet on paper, NY is a 3rd seed that is having their whole team performing at career high levels at the same time
With 9 days off their wad is beyond shot and that 3rd seed will crash in spectacular fashion
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
0-1, lost 1.18 units this is getting ridiculous, Knicks in regression, they were supposed to be regressing but instead they played at such a high level they now go into another playoff regression fade. Back to back regression with this regression being on a higher level of regression. There are levels to regression, the first one was very minimal this one much higher level and being back to back regression means Knicks are deep into regression. No doubt it is coming, and remember they will be moving up quite a bit in class of opponent. Now with that said, I ran the numbers and the Knicks rate the strongest team in my playoff only PR since 2001. 2017 Warriors did surpass the 2001 Lakers but now Knicks beat them by roughly 1 pt. More on this tomorrow with no games I'll have some info.
Knicks are officially all time outlier tier in terms of PPG differential in playoff history. I mentioned this but the fact that they are winning nearly every game in wire to wire blow out fashion is unprecedented. All time goat team like 17 warriors would at least lose first halves routinely. Yet on paper, NY is a 3rd seed that is having their whole team performing at career high levels at the same time
With 9 days off their wad is beyond shot and that 3rd seed will crash in spectacular fashion
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: 0-1, lost 1.18 units this is getting ridiculous, Knicks in regression, they were supposed to be regressing but instead they played at such a high level they now go into another playoff regression fade. Back to back regression with this regression being on a higher level of regression. There are levels to regression, the first one was very minimal this one much higher level and being back to back regression means Knicks are deep into regression. No doubt it is coming, and remember they will be moving up quite a bit in class of opponent. Now with that said, I ran the numbers and the Knicks rate the strongest team in my playoff only PR since 2001. 2017 Warriors did surpass the 2001 Lakers but now Knicks beat them by roughly 1 pt. More on this tomorrow with no games I'll have some info. Knicks are officially all time outlier tier in terms of PPG differential in playoff history. I mentioned this but the fact that they are winning nearly every game in wire to wire blow out fashion is unprecedented. All time goat team like 17 warriors would at least lose first halves routinely. Yet on paper, NY is a 3rd seed that is having their whole team performing at career high levels at the same time With 9 days off their wad is beyond shot and that 3rd seed will crash in spectacular fashion
Yes incredible what the Knicks are doing easy schedule or not..........
Not really explainable in my book anyways other then playing way over their abilities and due to come back to earth soon.........
Maybe possible Knicks get behind early in the finals due to regressing, then with all the public and NBA Analyst now fading them and talking about their easy schedule they roll back and win the series.
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Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: 0-1, lost 1.18 units this is getting ridiculous, Knicks in regression, they were supposed to be regressing but instead they played at such a high level they now go into another playoff regression fade. Back to back regression with this regression being on a higher level of regression. There are levels to regression, the first one was very minimal this one much higher level and being back to back regression means Knicks are deep into regression. No doubt it is coming, and remember they will be moving up quite a bit in class of opponent. Now with that said, I ran the numbers and the Knicks rate the strongest team in my playoff only PR since 2001. 2017 Warriors did surpass the 2001 Lakers but now Knicks beat them by roughly 1 pt. More on this tomorrow with no games I'll have some info. Knicks are officially all time outlier tier in terms of PPG differential in playoff history. I mentioned this but the fact that they are winning nearly every game in wire to wire blow out fashion is unprecedented. All time goat team like 17 warriors would at least lose first halves routinely. Yet on paper, NY is a 3rd seed that is having their whole team performing at career high levels at the same time With 9 days off their wad is beyond shot and that 3rd seed will crash in spectacular fashion
Yes incredible what the Knicks are doing easy schedule or not..........
Not really explainable in my book anyways other then playing way over their abilities and due to come back to earth soon.........
Maybe possible Knicks get behind early in the finals due to regressing, then with all the public and NBA Analyst now fading them and talking about their easy schedule they roll back and win the series.
OKC keeps on keeping it on. When they need a win they get it regardless of injuries.
They have alot of depth but still pretty incredible.
Chet stepped up big, he was one guy who hasn't played that well who I thought needed to step up and he did.
Wemby was not that good.
20 pts but 4 of 15 and 0-5 on 3's.
6 rebs with 1 assist and 2 TO's.
Since those 1st 2 games Wemby's rebounding has really fall'in off.
Both OKC bigs out-rebounded him by quite a bit with both playing less minutes by more then a few minutes.
Wemby PER is very good at 29.9 but when we look at his usage, 32.4 his ratio of PER to Usage has dropped pretty good as his all-around game has fallen off.
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OKC keeps on keeping it on. When they need a win they get it regardless of injuries.
They have alot of depth but still pretty incredible.
Chet stepped up big, he was one guy who hasn't played that well who I thought needed to step up and he did.
Wemby was not that good.
20 pts but 4 of 15 and 0-5 on 3's.
6 rebs with 1 assist and 2 TO's.
Since those 1st 2 games Wemby's rebounding has really fall'in off.
Both OKC bigs out-rebounded him by quite a bit with both playing less minutes by more then a few minutes.
Wemby PER is very good at 29.9 but when we look at his usage, 32.4 his ratio of PER to Usage has dropped pretty good as his all-around game has fallen off.
I don't have prior to 2001 except I did run 1994 Final between Rockets and Knicks some time ago as my regular season PR's both PR I & PR II were all over the Knicks.
Playoff Only PR ...........
Rockets 63
Knicks 53.6
Rockets by 9.4 that ranks 4 largest difference since 2001.
And another winner for teams 3.25 or better.
Which helps us to understand that playing better in the playoffs is meaningful if it is done to a certain level.
I doubt Knicks will be less then 3.25 better then OKC
I think we will be looking at one of the largest differences since 2001.
I will almost certainly be on the Knicks to win the series . But suspect they will regress early in the series.
Maybe I could adjust the playoff PR for strength of schedule. That is a thought if I have time before the finals.
1
I don't have prior to 2001 except I did run 1994 Final between Rockets and Knicks some time ago as my regular season PR's both PR I & PR II were all over the Knicks.
Playoff Only PR ...........
Rockets 63
Knicks 53.6
Rockets by 9.4 that ranks 4 largest difference since 2001.
And another winner for teams 3.25 or better.
Which helps us to understand that playing better in the playoffs is meaningful if it is done to a certain level.
I doubt Knicks will be less then 3.25 better then OKC
I think we will be looking at one of the largest differences since 2001.
I will almost certainly be on the Knicks to win the series . But suspect they will regress early in the series.
Maybe I could adjust the playoff PR for strength of schedule. That is a thought if I have time before the finals.
Spurs -3.97 over OKC ...... Ave full season.& after the break
Spurs off a home game 4 beatdown they laid on OKC and now we see the book jacks the line to -3.5.
Both games 3 & 4 in SA was -1.5. Game 4 with a -1.5 Jalen and AJ were out that game.
Jalen out game 3 so this larger line is more based on that big game 4 win with both teams zip zagging along not really those injuries.
Now we can see -3.5 is no value based on my line which clearly favored Spurs in game 4 if we count the average which I pointed out is closer to accurate.
With evenly matched teams like we have here based on using the ave then that suggest very possible game 7 series.
But I can't back the Spurs with the book jacking this line off that big game 4 win and looks like so many thinking Spurs the easy play from what I see on you tube and reading comments around various places.
I will pass on game 5.
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My Lines .......... game 6
Spurs -1.3 over OKC ......... full season
Spurs -3.97 over OKC ...... Ave full season.& after the break
Spurs off a home game 4 beatdown they laid on OKC and now we see the book jacks the line to -3.5.
Both games 3 & 4 in SA was -1.5. Game 4 with a -1.5 Jalen and AJ were out that game.
Jalen out game 3 so this larger line is more based on that big game 4 win with both teams zip zagging along not really those injuries.
Now we can see -3.5 is no value based on my line which clearly favored Spurs in game 4 if we count the average which I pointed out is closer to accurate.
With evenly matched teams like we have here based on using the ave then that suggest very possible game 7 series.
But I can't back the Spurs with the book jacking this line off that big game 4 win and looks like so many thinking Spurs the easy play from what I see on you tube and reading comments around various places.
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