IT'S NBA PLAYOFF TIME ..................2026

@theclaw

 This is Game 6 buddy 

   I don't see public betting being a factor here. It really looks pretty even. With the Spurs last big home win,injuries, looks like J-Dub is "probably?" out , and desperation close out game, the line looks about right, maybe juiced a  half point. Some look at last game and say , Spurs to young,Thunder close them out. Others say, pretty even match up and NBA wants a game 7 on the weekend. Don't think there's enough there to influence the outcome from a bookmakers point of view. Just bet what you like, maybe not too much and wait for a live bet you like. If Williams starts it will push the betting some towards OKC.

Yea I said game 6 with my lines but then said I pass on game 5 .........

The big showdown in game 7 .. ... ..

My Lines ......

OKC -6.7 over Spurs ..... full season

OKC -4.03 ..... average

Book adjust line down to 3.5 from 5.5 game 5. Same injuries so why adjustment ?

I think OKC is the better team but with their 2cd best player out and their best scorer off the bench out they have been getting away with these injuries up to this point but can they continue to do that ?

I have to pass once again. I don't see any edge myself.

Good luck if you can find and edge in this game 7.

I hope OKC wins as with their injuries I think really opens up the Knicks even better probability to win the finals 

I'll likely fade Knicks game 1 coming off another regression and with OKC off a game 7 a OKC game 1 win maybe off that game 7 with injuries might shift people's opinions on the Knicks having any chance to win series.

I see Knicks around +200 , not that great of odds. I was hoping for higher.  But I suppose considering the beatdown they are laying on teams maybe justifiable. 

A game 1 loss especially  a big loss and a game 2 loss with Knicks down 0-2 I'd definately back the Knicks to win the series if odds go up enough.

Any opinions out there on how the finals will go ?

NY does not show up as a query result because the Game 1 matchup has not yet been set, but the parameters fit to fade NY:

PO = 1 and round = 4 and series game = 1 and AD and p:margin > 12.5

ATS:  1-11 (-6.3,8.3%) avg line = +6.62

In the Finals in Game 1, Away Dogs off a win by at least 13 points are just 1-11 ATS.

Hopefully OKC just squeaks by to keep the Game 1 spread narrow.

SA won as an Away Dog in Game 7.  Maybe VW is trying to show that he should have been named MVP instead of SGA.

NY does look like a live dog in the series, but I like SA in Game 1.  I compute what I refer to as the Efficiency Factor (points/FGA).  Just looking at the last 12 games for NY's OFF it is freakishly high:

PO = 1 and tS(points, N = 12)/tS(FGA, N = 12) > 1.405 (50 games including NY's latest) That is pretty rare.

PO = 1 and tS(points, N = 12)/tS(FGA, N = 12) < 1.405 (4036 games) SA falls into that very common category.

NY is an Away Dog in Game 1 (tS = team Season):

PO = 1 and AD and tS(points, N = 12)/tS(FGA, N = 12) > 1.405

SU:  3-15 (-10.1,16.7%)

ATS:  6-12 (-4.5,33.3%)

Obviously 6-12 ATS with an avg margin of -4.5 points doesn't make NY look like a perfect lay, but that is what I took for one unit.  Good luck everybody.

That should have been "perfect fade," and I took SA -4.5/-118 for one unit.