Is the star out theory dead?

In the past the star out theory worked a lot but in recent years, it feels like public caught on and it no longer works? What are your guys thoughts on this? Examples: butler first game out the other day and raptors killed them. Then yesterday Kings have no Sabonis and didn’t cover as well

Like any system or theory, it should not be applied blindly. You have to look at the individual situations. Sabonis has been injured for a while and then came back for three games off the bench before missing yesterday’s game. There’s no juice to that. As for Butler, his injury is crushing to the warriors. They know they didn’t have a chance last year without him and things haven’t looked great this year so losing him basically means the end of their season. 

The angle you are alluding to is reliant on a team rally. These are not situations where I would expect a team to rally. 

@LippyLeans

 Thanks for your input, makes sense for the Sabonis one since he’s already been in and out of the lineup. Definitely gotta approach every game differently, feels like this season it’s more just bet the common sense healthier team and they’ll more often cover than not, even if you bet them blindly.

@spicycurry

 It’s not dead , usually it works better after ASB, we will see

@spicycurry

 Perhaps there have been more situations that lean that way this season but it’s not as if any sort of trend is being flipped this season.

When the situation is one of “hey, if you can just step your game up for one night or keep the boat a float until I return” it’s easier to see players stepping up and making the most of extra minutes etc. but there is no such light at the end of the tunnel for Golden State. They would simply have to do it without him for the rest of the season and they are/were too self aware to delude themselves into that.  

1Q or 1H normally work better for me.

Also applies other way...could be a good game for the rockets tonight. Embiid is back in

I think it only works on the first game the star is out... In this case, it was the game he got injured vs miami.

He got an acl...that dsnt mean gsw will win all year cause he is out for the year.

@Itjunkie3

 Ah gotcha, I guess I should have included the game he got injured in as the first game. I thought his first game counted as the next game which he didn’t play a single minute

@LippyLeans

 Like today Franz Wagner was ruled out, and now the hornets are KILLING. I guess it’s because he’s been in and out of lineups? Or maybe people don’t really consider Franz a star? Starting to think just bet the healthier starters at this point

Sengun is just trash 

@DeeDragoN

 Yeah that theory doesn’t work for Embiid anymore because he’s always in and out of lineups