Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
140 - 95 @ 59% for +35.5 Units
Wed, 04/06
#1: New Orleans Hornets -2.5
I have to be honest here, had the Rockets won last night, this game would have most likely been a ‘PASS’ for me. But that was a very big loss for this team, especially given the fact that Memphis lost as well. Had the Rockets won, they would have been 2 games out with 4 to go. Now they’re still 3 games out with 4 to go, and in all honesty, they really have no chance. I know it, the coaches know it, and the players know it. How will they respond tonight? I expect a ‘let-down’ but we shall see.
What I do know though is that Hornets will play with max effort in this one. Why? Well, because they are only ½ game out of the ‘coveted’ 6th spot in the West (tied with Blazers in the loss column). No one wants to play the Lakers in the first round, but the Hornets even more so. New Orleans is 0-4 against the Lakers this year, with an averaging losing margin of 11 points per game. I’m pretty sure they’d rather face Dallas in the 1st round, against whom they are 2-1 this year with all 3 games being very competitive. If I know this, I’m sure the Hornets coaching staff KNOWS this and thus the players. I expect these guys to play really hard tonight to get this win, thus being tied with Portland in the standings. Oh, and guess who has the tie-breaker between ‘em? Yup, the ‘Bees’, as they’ve won the season series 3-1. Bottom line is that this is a CRUCIAL game for New Orleans, and a definite ‘let-down’ spot for the Rockets after losing to an inferior team at home last night.
Now that I’ve got the motivational angles out of the way, let’s quickly breakdown a few other factors that are favoring the ‘Bees’ in this one:
i) This is a 3rd game in 4 nights for the Rockets, while the Hornets had 2 days off. In addition, Houston has to go on the road for this one, while the Hornets are playing their 4th straight game at home. New Orleans is rested and ready to go, while Rockets are in a ‘fatigue’ spot here. This is what K-Mart had to say yesterday: "From the tipoff, we just seemed to not have our energy that we had for the last couple of months. It's a bad time of year to not play like you've been playing for the last couple of months. For whatever reason, we just looked really tired in a lot of spurts." ‘nuff said!
ii) I like to back teams that play D and fade those that don’t. Well, we have a Houston team that is allowing 104 ppg and 51% from the field in their last 5 games. Houston has allowed 100+ points in 4 straight games. In comparison, Hornets are allowing 96 ppg and 48% from the field in their last 5 games. Not great numbers by their standard but still much better than the Rockets. New Orleans hasn’t allowed a team to score 100+ on them in 3 straight. This is still one of the best defenses @ home, and I expect them to step-up their intensity tonight.
iii) We have a ‘revenge’ angle for the Hornets in this one. Sure some might say that New Orleans is 2-1 against the Rockets this year, thus ‘revenge’ might not apply, but I would disagree. That last game, was actually played in New Orleans, about a month ago, and these players will be reminded with that outcome all day today. It was a close 2 point loss, but the Hornets made 6 more FG’s, had 8 more assists, and forced 5 more TO’s in that one. Rockets won the game by shooting 11 for 26 from the 3PT line and making 7 more FT’s. I don’t see the same statistical performance from this tired squad today.
iv) We have some ‘line-value’ here. On January 14th, Houston were -2.5 home favorites (SA: Hornets -3.5 at home). Then on February 27th (last meeting), New Orleans were -6 point favorites at home. Now all of a sudden they are only -2.5 favs? Sure, David West injury is a significant loss, but this team has adjusted and played well without him. Add in the fact that Houston is playing on a b2b and Hornets will be very motivated to win this one, and I just have a feeling that this line is a tad too low. Either way, I’ll take it.
Prior to their last loss to Houston, NO were 5-0 SU and ATS against them. This team is 26-12 (68%) at home this year compared to 17-22 (43%) road record for the Rockets. I just see the Hornets being much more motivated and energized in this one, as I expect a very comfortable win tonight.
Good luck!
140 - 95 @ 59% for +35.5 Units
Wed, 04/06
#1: New Orleans Hornets -2.5
I have to be honest here, had the Rockets won last night, this game would have most likely been a ‘PASS’ for me. But that was a very big loss for this team, especially given the fact that Memphis lost as well. Had the Rockets won, they would have been 2 games out with 4 to go. Now they’re still 3 games out with 4 to go, and in all honesty, they really have no chance. I know it, the coaches know it, and the players know it. How will they respond tonight? I expect a ‘let-down’ but we shall see.
What I do know though is that Hornets will play with max effort in this one. Why? Well, because they are only ½ game out of the ‘coveted’ 6th spot in the West (tied with Blazers in the loss column). No one wants to play the Lakers in the first round, but the Hornets even more so. New Orleans is 0-4 against the Lakers this year, with an averaging losing margin of 11 points per game. I’m pretty sure they’d rather face Dallas in the 1st round, against whom they are 2-1 this year with all 3 games being very competitive. If I know this, I’m sure the Hornets coaching staff KNOWS this and thus the players. I expect these guys to play really hard tonight to get this win, thus being tied with Portland in the standings. Oh, and guess who has the tie-breaker between ‘em? Yup, the ‘Bees’, as they’ve won the season series 3-1. Bottom line is that this is a CRUCIAL game for New Orleans, and a definite ‘let-down’ spot for the Rockets after losing to an inferior team at home last night.
Now that I’ve got the motivational angles out of the way, let’s quickly breakdown a few other factors that are favoring the ‘Bees’ in this one:
i) This is a 3rd game in 4 nights for the Rockets, while the Hornets had 2 days off. In addition, Houston has to go on the road for this one, while the Hornets are playing their 4th straight game at home. New Orleans is rested and ready to go, while Rockets are in a ‘fatigue’ spot here. This is what K-Mart had to say yesterday: "From the tipoff, we just seemed to not have our energy that we had for the last couple of months. It's a bad time of year to not play like you've been playing for the last couple of months. For whatever reason, we just looked really tired in a lot of spurts." ‘nuff said!
ii) I like to back teams that play D and fade those that don’t. Well, we have a Houston team that is allowing 104 ppg and 51% from the field in their last 5 games. Houston has allowed 100+ points in 4 straight games. In comparison, Hornets are allowing 96 ppg and 48% from the field in their last 5 games. Not great numbers by their standard but still much better than the Rockets. New Orleans hasn’t allowed a team to score 100+ on them in 3 straight. This is still one of the best defenses @ home, and I expect them to step-up their intensity tonight.
iii) We have a ‘revenge’ angle for the Hornets in this one. Sure some might say that New Orleans is 2-1 against the Rockets this year, thus ‘revenge’ might not apply, but I would disagree. That last game, was actually played in New Orleans, about a month ago, and these players will be reminded with that outcome all day today. It was a close 2 point loss, but the Hornets made 6 more FG’s, had 8 more assists, and forced 5 more TO’s in that one. Rockets won the game by shooting 11 for 26 from the 3PT line and making 7 more FT’s. I don’t see the same statistical performance from this tired squad today.
iv) We have some ‘line-value’ here. On January 14th, Houston were -2.5 home favorites (SA: Hornets -3.5 at home). Then on February 27th (last meeting), New Orleans were -6 point favorites at home. Now all of a sudden they are only -2.5 favs? Sure, David West injury is a significant loss, but this team has adjusted and played well without him. Add in the fact that Houston is playing on a b2b and Hornets will be very motivated to win this one, and I just have a feeling that this line is a tad too low. Either way, I’ll take it.
Prior to their last loss to Houston, NO were 5-0 SU and ATS against them. This team is 26-12 (68%) at home this year compared to 17-22 (43%) road record for the Rockets. I just see the Hornets being much more motivated and energized in this one, as I expect a very comfortable win tonight.
Good luck!
_________________
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'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
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'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
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