Playoffs 6-2 +11,400.00
UNDER 196 -105 TO WIN 3 DIMES
OKC THUNDER
As for the Thunder, Much of my thinking for the under comes in as it did for the first game of the Spurs series in which both teams entered off significant rest implying that rust would be a factor. While the Heat have less rust to shake off, the Thunder have almost a week of down time and half-speed practice action to work off. Tonight they will have opponents crashing them, getting in their faces and we know that it takes a little while to shake off those cobwebs after sitting for what will have been 6 full days without game action. Much like I expected it to impact the Thunder’s shooting in game 1 of the Spurs series I see it being a problem tonight against a Miami team that is better defensively than the Spurs were.
If you like Trends, and if you follow me you know I like them too (THE APPLICABLE ONES) … then it might interest you in knowing that the last 11 times a home team with 6 or more full days of rest was favored by less than 8 points in the playoffs with the o/u at 209.5 or less, the total went 10-1 “under”. This situation applies to the Thunder. What sweetens it for me is the fact that the Thunder went 5-1 “under” in their last 6 with 3 or more days of rest which in my view makes the league wide general trend a little more relevant. Looking at some hard to ignore situation trends, the Thunder have gone 19-7 ‘under’ in their last 26 vs. Eastern Conference teams and 7-3 under in their last 10 vs the Southwest Division.
MIAMI
Here’s a team that allowed only 91.6 ppg over the course of the season, not the 96.7 ppg that the Spurs allowed. They have maintained that defensive aggressiveness and kept the Celtics to a 90 ppg average over the course of their series.
They have cooled down from the free throw line shooting only 70.8% in their last 5 games which is down from their season average of 76.2%. Those missed freebies can often come back to bite over bettors.
The Heat also have a tendency to tighten up on the road when grabbing points as evidenced by the fact they are 8-2 “under” their last 10 when playing as road underdogs.
As for out of conference foes, they are 6-1-1 “under” in their last 8 vs. the Western Conference. So when we apply this number to the Thunder’s under tendencies against the East I note a combined 25-8-1 under probability. (76% tendency).
They too have played this division tough going 6-2-1 “under” their last 9 vs., the Northeast so again we have a team vs division combined tendency of 13-5-1 “under” (72% under tendency). Good opponents often bring out the best in the Heat on defence too as they have gone 10-3 “under” their last 13 vs. opponents with a winning percentage of .600 or better. The Heat are also catching an 18 point shift in the total compared to their game 7 line against Boston. That is a huge adjustment. Granted the opponent matters but how can we overlook the Heat’s improving defence as the playoffs have progressed?
Both meetings this season went under tonight’s total with both games combining for 191 and 190 points respectively. Those games also went under their posted totals of 198.5 and 200.5 so they fell significantly short of their number. The under is actually 4-1 in the last 5 head to head meetings.
Finally, the Heat would have gone 13-5 “under” with a posted total of 196 during these 2012 playoffs.
They finished ranked 4th in the league in points allowed, 5th in defensive field goal percentage and 1st in rebounding. The Thunder finished 4th in the league in defensive field goal percentage and thanks to the fact they play in the higher scoring West, their defensive numbers weren’t as good as the Heat but don't let that fool you. Remember the total against the East and this division for the Thunder meaning they can get sucked into lower scoring affaris when playing the East.
OFFICIATING
Tonight’s crew may help my play on the under and these numbers are not lost on me. Here’s tonight’s crew with the average combined points scored in their officiated games this season.
- Ed Malloy has averaged 194 pp
- Monty McCutchen 190.9 ppg
- Derrick Stafford 190.8 ppg
Finally, Durant and Lebron James trained together during the lockout. In what the both of them termed ‘Hell Week’ that intense training should have made both of them aware of each other’s tendencies, weaknesses and strengths. You would never have seen opponents training together in the old days of Johnson/Bird for example. You learn a lot from someone spending a week in intensive training with them. This won’t be a huge factor, but it IS a factor in my view.
On a final note, going back and taking a look at historical numbers for NBA finals there is one number that I came across that blew my mind. The under has hit a perfect 8 times in a row in game 1 of the NBA finals the last 8 years. Granted this should not be a surprise as game 1 is usually cagey as coaches try to establish their matchups and determine what works best on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Then there is the nerve factor that usually shakes off at half time but by then the game has already started to trend under so that when the teams do get into stride, it’s a little too late unless of course the un-handicap-able overtime rears its head.
My play is on THE UNDER 196 TONIGHT.
Good luck and Cheers