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Heat -140 to win title, but consider this before betting

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Posted: #1

If you bet $500 on the Heat at -140 to win the NBA Championship you will get a return of $357.14

The Heat are currently -330 to win Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.  If you bet that same $500 on the Heat to win Game 7 you will get a return of $151.52 

If you bet your now $651.52 on the Heat to win a series with the Spurs at -317 you win 205.52 for a total return on your $500 of $357.04

The point here is that betting the Heat at -140 to win the NBA Championship is the same as Parlaying the Heat for Game 7 and a series with the Spurs at -317.

The question is, what will the odds be in a series between the Heat and the Spurs?  If it the Heat are better than -317 you would be better off parlaying Game 7 and a series with the Spurs.

An article on covers a few days ago said, "Oddsmakers opened the Spurs as possible +230 series underdogs versus Miami (-270) and as possible -250 favorites versus Indiana (+210) in the NBA Finals."

Here is the article:  https://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=322603

If the Heat are -270 in a series with the Spurs you would get a return of $392.82 by parlaying Game 7 and a series with the Spurs.  This would be $35.68 more than betting the Heat at -140.

So covers members, what kind of odds do you expect for a Heat - Spurs series? 

 
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Posted: #2
ML rollovers almost always net a better payout than taking a futures play
 
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Posted: #3
Heat -250 to -270 sounds exactly right. That's what I expect to pay. Now I would wait because if the Heat lose game 1 then you really have some thinking to do as that is an opportunity dent down from the gambling gods.
 
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Posted: #4
i say it will be heat -300 vs spurs
 
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Posted: #5
[Quote: Originally Posted by P4P] ML rollovers almost always net a better payout than taking a futures play [/Quote

Not always.  EG:  f the Heat lose to Indy, then the value would be on a Spurs future for sure to win the NBA finals, because the Spurs would never have to face Miami.

And in this case, I think the Heat will be about -180 vs the SPurs if they beat Indy, so the future is better if the OP's math is correct and I am correct with my line guess.
 
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Posted: #6
Lots of math mixed in with logic.  I like it!
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

Quote Originally Posted by P4P:

ML rollovers almost always net a better payout than taking a futures play [/Quote

Not always.  EG:  f the Heat lose to Indy, then the value would be on a Spurs future for sure to win the NBA finals, because the Spurs would never have to face Miami.

And in this case, I think the Heat will be about -180 vs the SPurs if they beat Indy, so the future is better if the OP's math is correct and I am correct with my line guess.

Sure, but he's not asking about betting on the Spurs. There is no ml rollover option to bet them as they are already through. But you're correct, I should have said, given no upsets along the way, a ml rollover approach is almost always better. Or rather, when betting favorites, futures offer very little value.

 

 
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Posted: #8
The Heat are now -130 to win the NBA Championship.
 
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Posted: #9

A $500 bet on the Heat at -130 would return 384.62

 
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Posted: #10
 
 
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Posted: #11
So to set a precedant, the cost now shot up 80 points after a game 7 win and into the Finals.
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