Found an invaluable resource for nba prop bettors.
On reddit there is a guy that puts out something called NBA Cheat Sheets.
His username on reddit is bettoringreen. He puts this info out daily a few hours before game time.
His focus is the O/U on player assists. He breaks them down by percentages over the last:
5 games
10 games
15 games
Season
Some of these trend assist bets are hitting at 70-80%+
He doesn't make picks per say but I think he said the top 5 players on every screen are the ones he most recommends betting on.
The players at the top have the most consistent hit rate.
Not sure where he mines this data from but I have a feeling it takes a lot of work.
Obviously trends start and trends end but betting on an 80%+ trend across 10-15 games should pay off far more than it loses.
Tre Jones U 7.5 ASSISTS hits...
his under streak continues...
U assist # in last 15/16 games!!!
Had to sweat this one a bit. Tre Jones hit 6 Assists with 4:39 left in the 3rd... 0 assists rest of game. He played 35 minutes too.
It looks like the reason Tre Jones usually doesn't go OVER assist total is because the team is getting blown out in 1/2 their games and there are other good passers on the team. He only averages 5 assists per game.
Keep track of this Tre Jones character. Highly recommend betting his under until it loses twice in a row. It's gold.
@HPowerCro
PRAs are kind of a fascinating betting aspect of the NBA.
Obvious issue with PRA OVER prop bets is playing time... if the game ends up being a blow out and the prop player is a starter your bet on the OVER probably loses 9x out of 10. Starters on both sides tend to sit out the entire 4th qtr in these situations.
Something to keep in mind, players coming back from injury usually don't play full minutes either their 1st/2nd game back making the line look better than it is. Sometimes a player won't touch the court in the 2nd half at all. The books are aware of these unknowns, it ends up being baked into the number which ironically makes the bet look even more enticing for the recreational better who jumps on the OVER because the line looks too low and in the end the OVER bet loses.
There is always a chance a player gets injured. Some players seem to get injured all the time.
On the UNDER side of PRA betting is where things get interesting and has the potential to be far more profitable over a long period of time. IF you know or highly suspect the game will be a blowout and the PRA player is a starter, you will have a massive edge betting UNDER in the PRA prop market.
This is why it always pays to look at the spread on games you are betting PRA on and try to figure out if you agree with it or not. OR follow some of the better nba cappers on covers and trust them to be on the right side. NBA blowouts while unpredictable CAN be predicted with a high level of accuracy by some cappers.
Hypothetical EXAMPLE: spread is Cavs -10.5 vs Washington tonight, if top betters on covers are taking the Washington +10.5 side it is probably safe to place a PRA OVER bet on a Cavs starter, however if cappers are expecting the Cavs to win by 30 you would be taking a big risk placing a PRA OVER bet. In that case taking a PRA UNDER bet is far more likely to hit than it normally would.
Final point on PRA UNDERs, it pays to watch the games. A lot of players take the court injured. If you are sure it will eventually sideline them then once again you have an edge.
Books can't predict when a player will or won't get hurt or aggravate an injury. Lines are set largely based off of data points, stats, and algorithms and not by people actually watching the games.
But personally I would probably just stay away from PRA bets altogether and stick with the easier props to predict a side on such as: points, assists, or blocks.
I usually avoid betting on rebounding props due to the extreme randomness of the NBA... any team can shoot 30%-60% on any given night, hard to predict which way the ball will bounce, game blowouts etc. If both teams are making a majority of their shots nobody will get rebounds. If both teams are fouling each other like crazy nobody will get rebounds.
@HPowerCro
As a short follow up to the question you asked playing time information is always out there somewhere although often in obscure places... twitter, local news story, behind a paywall etc.
In short if the books know it, then other people out there know it too. This is why fully capping just one sports game is so difficult. You could spend hours researching a bunch of minute details and still miss something.
Regarding NBA CHEAT SHEETS on reddit
I backtested quite a few props near the top of the page to see how they do and many do lose in spite of the trend.
My recommendation is to only bet a few NBA props a day AND stick to trends that are 80%+ across the board for 5/10/15 DAYS... there won't be many but those offer the best value.
For anyone betting on the riskier prop trends on the sheet it probably would be a good idea to research position stat trends / opponent scoring trends / player history vs team x trends at a minimum before placing the bet. A lot of times a prop is offered on the exact number of the player's historical average... placing a bet in that position is playing with fire.
UPDATE:
Tre Jones U 7.5 assists has now hit 14 games in a row!
15 games ago on Dec 8 vs the Bulls was the last time he went O 7.5 assists... in that game he had 8.
24 of Tre Jones last 25 games played have gone U 7.5 assists!
* Tre Jones has only gone over 6 assists in a game 6x all year... 6/36 = 17%
There are not a lot of player props out there worth betting on consistantly but Tre Jones U 7.5 assists is on fire this year. Trend might continue all season or possibly turn out to be a career trend for him. There are a lot of passers on the Spurs and Tre Jones seems to be more of a shooting PG. I would recommend betting this prop until it loses 2x in a row.
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