Gm 5 Pick and Why

Even with the Spurs debacle -we got the cover with +2.5, missed the small small - tied at end of regulation play - more importantly we hit the main play.  Record stands at 5-2. Let's look at some numbers:

         NY   14

-5.5   SA   2    

Line opened at 5.5 for SA currently the same at most places (madduxsports.com) .    I've found over the years of sports betting 5.5 opening line whether football or basketball -there seems to be more possibilities for an away team to take it straight up vice many other opening lines (just an observation have not done any comparison).    

Once again I use a variety of sources and my own methodology to come up with ratings for the teams.    In this case NY 14  and SA 2 - lower the better on paper.    

When I go to my spreadsheet - where the away team is in the teens and the home team is a single digit -like we have tonight - I have 10 situations:   

1.  None are exactly like tonight 

2. One game had an opening line of 5.5 for the home team with ratings of 19-5   the home team won the game by 6 pts.

3. 5 games where the away team won the game straight up  none were with a 5.5 line, however, some were 4.5, 3 gms with 4 and 1 gm with  7.

4.  I don't have any games with 14 or 2, however,  with a few of the games where the away team won straight up the home team had low ratings like 4 and 5.

5.  I recognize there's the non-quantitative factors -i.e.- SA blew a 29 pt lead - I figure the oddsmakers may take that into consideration when they set an the opening line. Nobody really knows what weights the oddsmakers use to come up with the opening line so I just embrace it and go with it. 

6. I'm not the hedging type but based on the data and my interpretation tonight ......  

My plays:

1.  NY  +170   ML  - main play   

2.  Small Small play SA to win gm between 3-6 pts    +525

Good luck all   

GL 

@Fuse

@Toothfairy1

 Thanks and Back at guys

@TheBuddah

 BOL tonight 

@sportschat

 Thanks bud - back at ya 

They did it -  we did it - hell Yeah!!!!! 

@TheBuddah

 ..lets catch up in july

@TheBuddah

@TheBuddah

@umgmu

 For sure - Congrats!!!!

@Flyguy1700

Thanks Bud!!!!

@thatruth976

 thanks Bud 

Well done B

@Interstellar

 Thanks bud - amazing series to watch and to bet .   I  usually stop betting NBA once baseball hits - glad I decided to this year , 

@TheBuddah

 Well done 

@sportschat

 Thanks Bud 

@TheBuddah

 Lets eat at celebrity deli in falls church so I can eat a NY style corned beef sandwich ?? 

@TheBuddah

Amazing job, thanks for sharing Brother!!!

@FelixFermin21

 Thanks bud -it was a sweet run 

@umgmu

 unfortunately I’m a picky eater- maybe Ny style Pizza :) 

@TheBuddah

 That works too

@umgmu

 Perfect!!!!   On to hockey