Posted:
#1
20-12, +9.60
I see some value in Orlando, tonight. I think the key to this game is which team rebounds here in the bounce-back spot. Both teams are coming off a loss. Orlando’s coming off a Washington game where I would have expected them to come back down to earth after the insane performance from the perimeter against Detroit just the night before. They were complacent (only got to the foul line 10 times), launched a whopping 35 three’s and got up 93 shot attempts, yet still only scored 85 points and let Washington pretty much do whatever they wanted. That performance was a bit expected, so them bouncing back here might be a bit easier than what Atlanta brings to the table. Atlanta’s ending a three game roady, having come directly off a rough OT loss against the toughest defense in the league in Boston. Atlanta has been impressive in the month of April with a 3-1 record, and while the offense has been pretty good scoring 120, 101, and 116 prior to the Boston game, the alarming thing to note is that they gave up 96, 96, and 93 in those three games as well. Those games have come against Charlotte twice and Detroit, two teams who don’t shoot the three all that much or all that good, yet still scored some pretty high point totals. I just think Orlando’s in the better spot here to bounce-back, coming off a complacent performance against Washington. The team with the urgency and the double revenge gets the nod here.
I like New Jersey with immediate revenge, just not interested in going against Doug Collins with some time to prep in this scenario. Would much rather play the immediate revenge angles when the team with revenge is at home in the 2nd meeting. I think Miami bounces back strong, or do they? They’ve just played two of the top three defenses in the league and draw the worst team now with the Knicks on tap Sunday. Wanted to make a case for the under, just not sure on how the game plays out. Likewise, I wanted to make a case for the Wizards and Knicks to the under with the Knicks look ahead and the Knicks coming off a pretty high point total two days ago. The pace of these Wizards game have been crazy to say the least as of late, despite the most recent game going under (which is clearly explained in the first paragraph here). I have Washington coming in here playing fast, and a Knicks team that likes to play fast and coming off of fast Milwaukee. Safe to say this one is going to be played above the 95-96 possession barriers, just not sure if it equals points. I see some value in the Mavs and Blazers going over the total. I think that without Aldridge, the Blazers become a bit faster (as evidenced by their last game hitting 102 possessions). I also like the fact that both teams come in off of fast-paced Golden State, so the probability of a fast game is there. The only slow Dallas game as of late came against Memphis when Memphis was in the middle of an under streak and their defense hasn’t been all that great as it could be on the back-to-back spot, so yah, this one probably holds a bit of value to the over. Not interested though. Just the one for me tonight. Card blows.
3* Magic +1.5
GL
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