FF selective bets - January thread

I really have to stay away more often from these Mavs games. This team is a streaking machine. They can score 20 in a row and suddenly to recieve 20... too much yo-yo effect moose in lot of their games (i'm not talking about last night). I have noticed that since last season. Tonight i lean Denver cause they are good home rested team against b2b as a whole. But actually i'm not gonna play this Dallas game cause they are unpredicted

So far i have Hawks - 7

Adding:

Grizzlies - 6.5

Nets are in awful shape. And they face team which lost last three at road. Memphis start to lose recently and after their awesome beginning of the season they dropped to 26-11 and now they are 1.5 games ahead of 6th spot in the conference. They get Jeff Green from Celtics which i don't know it's a good move right now but it is a statement. And that statement says to me that this team want better playoff seed at any price. Cause they understand that they are legit Western Conference contender this year and the home court advantage even only in the first round in playoffs could be year differential. So Grizzleis need to start winning at road again like they did it early in the season. And their bad 3 game losing streak (Pelicans, Hawks and Nuggets... all three good home teams) in a row at road will stop tonight. Against bad eastern conference team - > Nets. The spread... i don't know. I don't love with but i think 6.5 won't be a problem for Memphis.

FF thanks. Do you know your record taking the away favourite? It seems to me that every time you take an away fav, they cover. But, I have no accurate data of yours on that. You are very organised, thought you might kept track of that.

BOL mr funkfreaker

milky24 I don't count my favs or dogs wins but i'm pretty sure my record on AF is maybe the best from all of my ATS plays so far in the season. As RefereeSystem already noticed AF covers very well so far in the season and that is why i like these type of bets right now. You just need to find the best spots for the AF and you can win with more than 54 % as i did. For now i'm just waiting for books to adjust more their lines and when i noticed that i turn my profit into losses with this type of bet i will stop playing them. I have already had one push and two bad beats this month with 1 points shy losses with Away Favorites. First time was with Grizzlies win over Lakers by 3 (4 was the line) and second time was last night with Mavs win over Kings by 4 (5 was the line). The push was on 1st january with Kings (-3 line) win over Wolves. So maybe the books finally start to adjust their lines for home dogs to covers. Despite that i'm gonna ride three away favorites tonight. Tonight record will show me if there are still remain value with AF. My third for tonight is:

Rockets - 9

This play maybe is weaker than the previous two cause Rockets have game tomorrow on TNT against Thunder at home. But i just don't like the Orlando spot tonight after last comfortable win against good Bulls team. I think fading them against good running offense is not bad idea despite more important Rockets game tomorrow. I can't recommend this play. I play it only because i've got some good feeling.


The fourth and last will be finally on dog

Sorry fellas i could't post Pelicans pick so.. 2-1 last night.

Overall ATS: 62-37-3 + 21.3 units
Overall Totals: 5-9-0 - 4.9 units
ML Dogs 1 st Quarter: 13-3-0 + 13.05 units

Overall profit: + 29.45 units

Thx bro 

Anything for today? As always thanks for the picks. I fearlessly tail blind and love the early picks as I sleep all day.

Fellas one play for tonight. It's a total system play.  My record is not the best so far in these type of plays (5-9) but i will try to repair it until end of the season.

The system criteria fit very rare (between 15 and 20 games per year) and it's 5-2 so far in the season (2-1 posted from me). So:

Cavaliers at Lakers - Under 204
1.1 units (to win 1)

Tomorrow schedule is bigger so than i will have more ATS plays. BOL

 Thx bro

gl bud

What about Rockets 1st qtr play ?

O/U up to 206 on Cavs/Lakers... yikes!

Overall ATS: 62-37-3 + 21.3 units
Overall Totals: 5-10-0 - 6 units
ML Dogs 1 st Quarter: 13-3-0 + 13.05 units

Overall profit: + 28.35 units

F*ck the totals

were u tempted at all to rebet the 2nd half under at 103.5, seeing that it would be hard to duplicate the 118 points in the 1st half?  excellent season still for u FF

Yea those totals are rough to cap /// Good luck 2 nite !!!!

First strong play for tonight is ready to go. Strong road team like Bulls (14-5 record) lost 4 of last 5 games... these guys ahead with Thibs coach are pissed off. On the other side Hawks great performance continue... Bullets look fantastic recently... Raptors with DeRozan back will be the same Toronto winning team like the start of the season. So Bulls need badly to back on track if they want to be home court team in the second round of the playoffs. That start tonight with win over poor looking Celtics team. Do they cover 5 point spread ? I'll take my chances against team which recieve many points per game.

Bulls - 5
1.1 units (to win 1)

Possible plays on Pelicans at Sixers and Heat at Kings games I will post them when (if) they are ready to go. I will be back in few hours. GL 

  cool .. thx

I like the Bulls very much. Without noah they might actually score more with Taj in the line up. No huge defense is needed against lowly C's. Bulls gotta get a good win finally.