No more BS..
I'm writing down in my (evolving) rules list what WizardOfOdd said above. I think it's that fundamentally sound. Thanks again for the guidance WizardOfOdd... great name (WizardOfOdd)... 
no prob man. there is alot of ways to get an advantage on the plays. here is a list you can go by, it will help..
*limit your plays
*dont chase
*dont bet the side and total in the same game
*keep away from road favs
*keep the bets consistent (example $100-$500 a game, not $100 a game and $1200 the next)
*keep track of teams going on long road trips (fatigue factor) like last night, Orlando started a 4 game WEST road trip, game one they lost ATS, so you dont play against them the rest of this trip.
phillys just came home from a 6 game West road trip. (also, i played them against their 1st road game of that trip and lost, so i doubled up on the 2nd game and won, and i stopped betting on that road trip for philly)
Because there is a general theory that you fade the home team giving points in their first game back home coming off a long road trip (wither West Coast/East Coast road trip). The thinking is if that they are tired and not in it mentally (i.e. they come home they "personal" and family things to tend to after being away for a week) and that = letdown in the first game back. Obviously you pick and choose your spots on this type of play.You have to pick and choose your spots with this, because I wouldnt use this logic on a Boston, Detroit, and so on.
Because there is a general theory that you fade the home team giving points in their first game back home coming off a long road trip (wither West Coast/East Coast road trip). The thinking is if that they are tired and not in it mentally (i.e. they come home they "personal" and family things to tend to after being away for a week) and that = letdown in the first game back. Obviously you pick and choose your spots on this type of play.You have to pick and choose your spots with this, because I wouldnt use this logic on a Boston, Detroit, and so on.
well on detroit, they have had 1 road trip that lasted more than 3 games this season and they did come back home and were favored by 11 and covered (won by 12 against the knicks), but if you also bet against them during the road trip, you would have won your money from that.
on boston, they have also had 1 road trip that lasted more than 3 games, and they came home and were favored against the rockets their first game home and did not cover. also, you would have made money on their road trip on the 2nd game (against seattle, favored by 10, won by 8)
i keep it consistent so it does pay back in the long run and you dont miss out on any. i get what you are saying, but i like to not pick and choose the spots.
hell, when i take a dog, i take ML on them as well. only about 15% of the time does the line even matter in games. if a fav wins, they usually cover, if a dog covers, they usually wins SU.
for example, the 5 dogs that covered last night, all won SU. and the other 4 dogs that lost, also lost by the spread. so to me, the spread dont mean a damn thing. vegas dont know shit about setting lines, they just want even action most of the times.
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