Dezzy's NBA Hoops Selections 2/9

YTD is 70-48

Hey fellas,

I missed posting yesterday as I was extremely sick with a terrible migrain, lost vision-pain and vomiting.

I feel a bit better today and  finding the time to cap and post.

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Tiny Thrill Thursday
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Warriors @ Nuggets UND 211.5 
Few angles here: Nuggets lost a late game last night to the Mavs and Denver only put up a total of 95 points which is quite low for them as they usually bust open the 100 ppg mark. I expect them to come into this semi late game (9:00pm) a little fatigued. Not too many pure scorers in this match up and I do not expect anyone to score 20 or more points in this one excluding the great Monta Ellis! I also expect some solid D and a few steals from Monta Ellis, Dorell Wright, Ty Lawson & Andre Miller. Nene Hilario should be the main X-factor getting at least a key steal and block himself. Denver is 0-1 in the over under dept. this year when the Line is 210.5 or more. I know that when you think of these two teams you think of points right away. However after looking deeper into the overall stats and factors, I personally think 211.5 total points is a bit high as I do not see them going over 205 total points.
This is my only NBA play today and I am sticking to it. 
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B.O.L.

glad to hear you feel better Dez. Good Luck today my friend. I like the play as well.

Turtle 

turtleboy 

215Hustler

Makaveli1 

Glad to see some of ya missed me!

teriaki-Thanks for the link.

I don't get them every day, more like monthly but when I do they are severe.

I will look into it more and let you know if I have more questions. Thanks again!

I have this game much lower than 211.5, too, but I can't bring myself to do it. Perhaps it just took someone else telling me it may be the right play. I guess we'll see how the earlier games go for me; if I'm playing with house money, perhaps I'll give it a shot.

BOL.

My system normally predicts 75% of a day's games at or within 3 points of the actual line. I usually have a difference of six before I'll consider a game to play. For example, my Lakers/Celtics line is at 185 (9.6 point difference) and everything else I've found supports the over play. Phoenix/Houston I have 195.5 compared to 198.5; Sacramento/OKC is at 200.5 compared to 202.5.

However, for this Denver game, the line is currently at 211.5... my numbers have it at 192.5; it makes me feel like it's an outlier that I should just avoid.

I live in the Bay Area, so perhaps I'm disuaded by what I saw from GS the other night against OKC. But, Denver does have a lot of injuries to deal with and haven't broken the 100-point mark for four straight games. Golden State on the other hand has broken the 100-point mark on the road twice this season, with a high of 105 against area-rival Sacramento.

I may have just talked myself into it. Watching that game the other night, I kept telling myself, quarter to quarter "they've got to cool off at some point, right?" Well, for that night, the answer was no. I need to learn to get over the 'what have you done for me lately' mentality, especially with GS because you never know what you're going to get.

 GOOD POINTS, THANKS FOR SHARING!

2/9 Recap:

Warriors @ Nuggets UND 211.5  W

1-0 on the night, a little closer then what I projected but a win is a win.

Updated YTD is 71-48

vasilli07-Nope, I bet on both totals and sides.

-Even though it came down to the wire, it's a win and I am glad I convinced you to make it a play!