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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    Den @ OKC Discussion

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    SuperSlapem
    wredskins
    trustandfall
    Fishgrz
    huskerdu25
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    SuperSlapem
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 9:23 AM ET #1

    Before I begin I'd like you to keep a few questions in mind. I'd also like to thank anyone for their participation in advance.

    Just a few questions to keep in mind. Please share your thoughts as we go along.

    “A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Before I begin I'd like you to keep a few questions in mind. I'd also like to thank anyone for their participation in advance.

    Just a few questions to keep in mind. Please share your thoughts as we go along.

     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 9:31 AM ET #2

    Will either team reach 100+ points?

    If so which one?

    Three D-league players have been called back to OKC. I have very little knowlegde of these players but they have all been playing well. The fact that 3 of them were signed before this game concerns me a bit.

    What impact do these players have on the game if any?

    “A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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    Will either team reach 100+ points?

    If so which one?

    Three D-league players have been called back to OKC. I have very little knowlegde of these players but they have all been playing well. The fact that 3 of them were signed before this game concerns me a bit.

    What impact do these players have on the game if any?

     
    wredskins
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 9:42 AM ET #3

    Okc covers the spread if their bench shows up. Denvers 2nd unit loves to run, not so good for Fisher. Both teams are playing well and I believe they'll both be in the 100s. 
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    Okc covers the spread if their bench shows up. Denvers 2nd unit loves to run, not so good for Fisher. Both teams are playing well and I believe they'll both be in the 100s. 
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 10:02 AM ET #4

    Den/OKC

    Overall

    Den
    106 ppg
    101 allowed

    OKC
    106.7 ppg
    97.2 allowed

    OKC allows an average of 95.1 at home.
    Denver averages 101.5 on the road on the 2nd of b2b's based on my calculation.

    116 vs Mia
    93 vs Hou
    86 vs Cha
    103 vs Utah
    103 vs LAL
    105 vs Min
    72 vs Mem
    112 vs LAL
    97 vs OKC
    92 vs Boston
    108 vs BK
    113 vs Cha
    120 vs Sac

    Against Mia was very early in the season where I don't think Miami cared too much. Plus teams take time to adjust early in the season. The Lakers, Charlotte, Min, Utah and Sac have defensive issues and Brooklyn was at a time of changing coaches in which Carlisimo had BK playing a very uptempo style of basketball.

    What do you see here?

    I see Denver scoring the ball less against better transition defense teams and half court defense teams. But I'd like you to share your thoughts.

    I have a little more info to share with you guys. Be back shortly.






    Last 5

    Den
    108.4 ppg
    94.6 allowed

    OKC
    103.6 ppg
    95.2 allowed

    Both teams are equal in fg% last 5.

    In the last 5 games Denver starters have averaged 58.6 to Oklahoma's 72.6. Denver has allowed 65.4 to Oklahoma's 62.4.




    “A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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    Den/OKC

    Overall

    Den
    106 ppg
    101 allowed

    OKC
    106.7 ppg
    97.2 allowed

    OKC allows an average of 95.1 at home.
    Denver averages 101.5 on the road on the 2nd of b2b's based on my calculation.

    116 vs Mia
    93 vs Hou
    86 vs Cha
    103 vs Utah
    103 vs LAL
    105 vs Min
    72 vs Mem
    112 vs LAL
    97 vs OKC
    92 vs Boston
    108 vs BK
    113 vs Cha
    120 vs Sac

    Against Mia was very early in the season where I don't think Miami cared too much. Plus teams take time to adjust early in the season. The Lakers, Charlotte, Min, Utah and Sac have defensive issues and Brooklyn was at a time of changing coaches in which Carlisimo had BK playing a very uptempo style of basketball.

    What do you see here?

    I see Denver scoring the ball less against better transition defense teams and half court defense teams. But I'd like you to share your thoughts.

    I have a little more info to share with you guys. Be back shortly.






    Last 5

    Den
    108.4 ppg
    94.6 allowed

    OKC
    103.6 ppg
    95.2 allowed

    Both teams are equal in fg% last 5.

    In the last 5 games Denver starters have averaged 58.6 to Oklahoma's 72.6. Denver has allowed 65.4 to Oklahoma's 62.4.




     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 10:07 AM ET #5

    @wredskins
    thx for responding.
    This is why I'm interested a bit in those D-league players. Jeremy Lamb is 6'5" 180lb. I'd doubt he has any trouble with speed if he plays and OKC decides to play Fisher less minutes.
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    @wredskins
    thx for responding.
    This is why I'm interested a bit in those D-league players. Jeremy Lamb is 6'5" 180lb. I'd doubt he has any trouble with speed if he plays and OKC decides to play Fisher less minutes.
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 10:09 AM ET #6

    DeAndre Liggins 6'6" 209lb. Could be off the bench to defend Chandler maybe. Thoughts? I'm just guessing here.
    “A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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    DeAndre Liggins 6'6" 209lb. Could be off the bench to defend Chandler maybe. Thoughts? I'm just guessing here.
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 10:16 AM ET #7

    Last Meeting

    Chandler 35 points.
    Westbrook 38 points.

    Denver starters did not play so well.

    In the last 10 meetings the total has gone over 215.5 only twice. Each Over came after 4 consecutive Unders.

    For the season Den starters are averaging 65.3 ppg to OKC's 77 ppg allowing the opposition to score 56.6 ppg to OKC's 63.1.
    “A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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    Last Meeting

    Chandler 35 points.
    Westbrook 38 points.

    Denver starters did not play so well.

    In the last 10 meetings the total has gone over 215.5 only twice. Each Over came after 4 consecutive Unders.

    For the season Den starters are averaging 65.3 ppg to OKC's 77 ppg allowing the opposition to score 56.6 ppg to OKC's 63.1.
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 10:25 AM ET #8

    ATS
    When scoring 100-109
    Denver is 9-8 on the road.
    OKC is 10-2 at home.

    When allowing opponents to score between 100-109
    Denver is 6-4-1 on the road.
    OKC is 2-6 at home.

    When allowing opponents to score between 90-99
    Denver is 7-0 on the road.
    OKC is 11-1 at home.

    In the last 3 meetings the two teams combined have averaged a total of 217 points. 2 of those games went under the mark.
    “A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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    ATS
    When scoring 100-109
    Denver is 9-8 on the road.
    OKC is 10-2 at home.

    When allowing opponents to score between 100-109
    Denver is 6-4-1 on the road.
    OKC is 2-6 at home.

    When allowing opponents to score between 90-99
    Denver is 7-0 on the road.
    OKC is 11-1 at home.

    In the last 3 meetings the two teams combined have averaged a total of 217 points. 2 of those games went under the mark.
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 10:27 AM ET #9

    I don't think anyone on the Denver squad can keep up with the speed of Westbrook for 48 minutes.
    “A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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    I don't think anyone on the Denver squad can keep up with the speed of Westbrook for 48 minutes.
     
    trustandfall
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 10:48 AM ET #10

    No one has mentioned what I would consider the single most important situational aspect for determining the under or over for this game.

    Denver played an overtime game LAST NIGHT in Chicago against a very good, very physical defense.

    It'd be hard for me to think fatigue will not slow down the Nuggets at least a bit from their average.

    Last time Nuggets went to OKC on a back-to-back (earlier this season), they were blown out 117-97.
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    No one has mentioned what I would consider the single most important situational aspect for determining the under or over for this game.

    Denver played an overtime game LAST NIGHT in Chicago against a very good, very physical defense.

    It'd be hard for me to think fatigue will not slow down the Nuggets at least a bit from their average.

    Last time Nuggets went to OKC on a back-to-back (earlier this season), they were blown out 117-97.
     
    Fishgrz
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 11:21 AM ET #11

    Both teams put up numbers on any given night, Denver even showed us they can put up 100 away from home and actually win. I'm taking the over in this game due to the fact that this is an important seed game for both teams. I expect all players to show out.
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    Both teams put up numbers on any given night, Denver even showed us they can put up 100 away from home and actually win. I'm taking the over in this game due to the fact that this is an important seed game for both teams. I expect all players to show out.
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 11:26 AM ET #12

    Thx Tnf
    I don't believe anyone has forgotten they played yesterday but I should not assume that. Although if you read the entire post, post #4 refers to Denver being on b2b's.

    Fatigue should definitely be a factor but will OKC use that as a reason to pick up the tempo or will they slow this game down as much as possible to keep Denver off balance?

    “A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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    Thx Tnf
    I don't believe anyone has forgotten they played yesterday but I should not assume that. Although if you read the entire post, post #4 refers to Denver being on b2b's.

    Fatigue should definitely be a factor but will OKC use that as a reason to pick up the tempo or will they slow this game down as much as possible to keep Denver off balance?

     
    huskerdu25
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 11:37 AM ET #13

    I think DEN/OKC will go under.

    OKC plays better D at home, and Denver game off a grueling b2b OT game last night against Chicago on the road.

    I see OKC winning 105-98 or so.  I think Denver will struggle a little bit offensively in OKC since they'll also be tired.

    I know a lot of people want to go on the over, but I don't know about that one.
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    I think DEN/OKC will go under.

    OKC plays better D at home, and Denver game off a grueling b2b OT game last night against Chicago on the road.

    I see OKC winning 105-98 or so.  I think Denver will struggle a little bit offensively in OKC since they'll also be tired.

    I know a lot of people want to go on the over, but I don't know about that one.
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 11:37 AM ET #14

    I feel Ibaka, Westbrook, and Durant are great defenders in transition. I'm more concerned whether this one will be a shootout and what the chances are those shots will fall. Based on Denver's 2nd of b2b's above I don't think they score as much against better transition defenses. Look at Mem and Boston games. Most of Denver's points(60) came in the paint during their last two meetings with OKC. I don't think OKC lets that happen tonight.
    “A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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    I feel Ibaka, Westbrook, and Durant are great defenders in transition. I'm more concerned whether this one will be a shootout and what the chances are those shots will fall. Based on Denver's 2nd of b2b's above I don't think they score as much against better transition defenses. Look at Mem and Boston games. Most of Denver's points(60) came in the paint during their last two meetings with OKC. I don't think OKC lets that happen tonight.
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 11:40 AM ET #15

    @huskerdu25
    I'm guessing you meant that you don't think it will go Over. Anyway I like your score prediction. I'm leaning Under but think OKC may get the Cover as well.
    “A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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    @huskerdu25
    I'm guessing you meant that you don't think it will go Over. Anyway I like your score prediction. I'm leaning Under but think OKC may get the Cover as well.
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 11:42 AM ET #16

    @shevy
    I don't pay for picks. Appreciate the offer.
    “A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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    @shevy
    I don't pay for picks. Appreciate the offer.
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 12:11 PM ET #17

    .
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    .
     
    mrusso
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 12:26 PM ET #18

    OKC has covered 11 of the last 12 games as a fav' of 8.5 or more. Only loss was ORL , -17, won by 13, didn't see the game but I'm guessing OKC wasn't exactly emotionally fired up for the lowly Magic. They will be tonight. Locked this in right away. Add the other pertinent variables in and you get- 

    OKC -8.5  

    "I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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    OKC has covered 11 of the last 12 games as a fav' of 8.5 or more. Only loss was ORL , -17, won by 13, didn't see the game but I'm guessing OKC wasn't exactly emotionally fired up for the lowly Magic. They will be tonight. Locked this in right away. Add the other pertinent variables in and you get- 

    OKC -8.5  

     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 12:58 PM ET #19

    @mrusso
    Based on my research numbers are pointing towards OKC and Under.
    GL.
    “A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
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    @mrusso
    Based on my research numbers are pointing towards OKC and Under.
    GL.
     
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 1:32 PM ET #20

    There's no way I pass up getting 8 1/2 points with the Nuggets, They are hot and playing to show  that they can win at home or on the road.Will hold off closer to game time to see if I can't get another 1/2 point.
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    There's no way I pass up getting 8 1/2 points with the Nuggets, They are hot and playing to show  that they can win at home or on the road.Will hold off closer to game time to see if I can't get another 1/2 point.
     
    poppacapper
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 1:38 PM ET #21

    The Over worries me because the Thunder also play the Grizzlies in Memphis tomorrow
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    The Over worries me because the Thunder also play the Grizzlies in Memphis tomorrow
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 1:39 PM ET #22

    I'm actually liking OkC and leaning over now. Only because it is a b2b and the total has been set higher when the last matchup totaled 214. Looks like the books want us on Den and the Under.
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    I'm actually liking OkC and leaning over now. Only because it is a b2b and the total has been set higher when the last matchup totaled 214. Looks like the books want us on Den and the Under.
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 1:43 PM ET #23

    @poppacappa
    Grizzlies no match for high octane offenses in this league. Too inconsistent on offense. Keep this in mind. OKC wants 1st seed and until they get there every game counts. No looking ahead for OKC. SA may look ahead cause Pops cares about his older veterans but not OKC.
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    Grizzlies no match for high octane offenses in this league. Too inconsistent on offense. Keep this in mind. OKC wants 1st seed and until they get there every game counts. No looking ahead for OKC. SA may look ahead cause Pops cares about his older veterans but not OKC.
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 1:49 PM ET #24

    OKC and Over seems like the perfect play. Most Over backers will be Denver backers for sure, percentage wise. Remember the books also adjust lines to keep the public from hitting a two team parlay. Denver and Over is too easy so I've already eliminated that thought. The fact that its a b2b on the road might attract OKC and Under backers so I've eliminated that as well. So that leaves me with Den and Under or OKC and Over. Thoughts?
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    OKC and Over seems like the perfect play. Most Over backers will be Denver backers for sure, percentage wise. Remember the books also adjust lines to keep the public from hitting a two team parlay. Denver and Over is too easy so I've already eliminated that thought. The fact that its a b2b on the road might attract OKC and Under backers so I've eliminated that as well. So that leaves me with Den and Under or OKC and Over. Thoughts?
     
     
    SuperSlapem
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2013 - 2:04 PM ET #25

    Denver just allowed the weak offense of Chi to score 100 points making them look spectacular. Meanwhile OKC is playing good defense. Might not be enough to keep Den under 100 but maybe enough to get the cover. I like OKC to drop around 110.

    Another thing I forgot to mention is Denver is playing their fourth game in a weeks span, all verse the better defenses in the league. They could get lose big in this spot.
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    Denver just allowed the weak offense of Chi to score 100 points making them look spectacular. Meanwhile OKC is playing good defense. Might not be enough to keep Den under 100 but maybe enough to get the cover. I like OKC to drop around 110.

    Another thing I forgot to mention is Denver is playing their fourth game in a weeks span, all verse the better defenses in the league. They could get lose big in this spot.
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