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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    Daily Situational Plays

    «First Previous 123456 Next Last»
    Redlad
    football_007
    rmajik
    TIPOF-THE-SWORD
    MrFreedo
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    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 14, 2026 - 5:42 PM ET #101

    Yesterday's trends 1-2  =  tonight

    Heat Home Games Post-November 29 on One Day Rest 21-5 to the over

    Heat-Magic Over 236

    Win no cover & play the next day has been a 60% Fade situation over the last 10 years. But no travel brings it down to 55% non-cover trend.

    Kings + 13.5

    Celtics after a loss & DD favorite next game has been a strong ATS cover situation over the last 5 years 70% win rate

    Celtics - 19.5

    Mr. Loser is on the Heat - 4.5, however this year he is 50-50 on his wagers so far. The best year for him over the last century. reallyhappy

    Follow or Fade. Your choice. Just take what you like & leave the rest. BOL!

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    Yesterday's trends 1-2  =  tonight

    Heat Home Games Post-November 29 on One Day Rest 21-5 to the over

    Heat-Magic Over 236

    Win no cover & play the next day has been a 60% Fade situation over the last 10 years. But no travel brings it down to 55% non-cover trend.

    Kings + 13.5

    Celtics after a loss & DD favorite next game has been a strong ATS cover situation over the last 5 years 70% win rate

    Celtics - 19.5

    Mr. Loser is on the Heat - 4.5, however this year he is 50-50 on his wagers so far. The best year for him over the last century. reallyhappy

    Follow or Fade. Your choice. Just take what you like & leave the rest. BOL!

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 15, 2026 - 4:03 PM ET #102

    Yesterday 2-1 & Mr. Loser does his thing. So for the trend followers a nice 3-1 day. Maybe a Fade is now due. We'll see. Tonight

    76ers BTB no cover last game

    Blazers - 8   === The sharps are on Philly so if you also like Portland, I would wait to just before game-time to bet.

    Bet on road dogs. 
    They are priced as not more than a 10-point underdog. 
    They are coming off a game in which they were priced as a road underdog. 
    They have won at least 15% of their games. 
    The opponent is playing on back-to-back nights. 
    If the game occurs after the all-star break, they improve to a 26-21 SU (55%) and 34-12-1 ATS

    Jazz + 3.5

    That's it for today. Follow or Fade. The choice is yours. I just supply the data. BOL! BYW. Mr. Loser bet an early game so no play there.

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    Yesterday 2-1 & Mr. Loser does his thing. So for the trend followers a nice 3-1 day. Maybe a Fade is now due. We'll see. Tonight

    76ers BTB no cover last game

    Blazers - 8   === The sharps are on Philly so if you also like Portland, I would wait to just before game-time to bet.

    Bet on road dogs. 
    They are priced as not more than a 10-point underdog. 
    They are coming off a game in which they were priced as a road underdog. 
    They have won at least 15% of their games. 
    The opponent is playing on back-to-back nights. 
    If the game occurs after the all-star break, they improve to a 26-21 SU (55%) and 34-12-1 ATS

    Jazz + 3.5

    That's it for today. Follow or Fade. The choice is yours. I just supply the data. BOL! BYW. Mr. Loser bet an early game so no play there.

     
    football_007
    football_007
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    Posted: Mar. 15, 2026 - 4:41 PM ET #103

    peace_5

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    peace_5

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 16, 2026 - 6:35 PM ET #104

    Yesterday 0-2 == A good day for the Faders. Tonight

    Since January 1, games between teams in the same conference that went over the total last time they played with a total less than 238.5 in the rematch have gone 71-45-1 to the under (61.%)

    Magic-Hawks Under 231.5

    When the Rockets have been favored against Western Conference teams since Christmas, the under has gone 16-3 (84%)

    Lakers-Rockets Under 234 === I've seen some sharp money coming in on the Under in this game. Was 233 than up to 226 now back down to 224.

    After the 50th game of the season, when a road team is favored by 6 to 16.5 points, they’ve gone 702-509-21 (57.97%)

    Spurs - 8

    NBA teams off a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over 56-28-1 to the Over (66.7%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.

    Mavs-Pelicans Over 240.5

    Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 51-17 SU and 46-20-2 ATS (69.7%) in their last 68 tries.

    Warriors -7 

    That's all folks. Follow or Fade. The choice is yours. Personally I only bet on the last 2 trends myself. Mr. Loser passed on tonight's card. BOL!

     

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    Yesterday 0-2 == A good day for the Faders. Tonight

    Since January 1, games between teams in the same conference that went over the total last time they played with a total less than 238.5 in the rematch have gone 71-45-1 to the under (61.%)

    Magic-Hawks Under 231.5

    When the Rockets have been favored against Western Conference teams since Christmas, the under has gone 16-3 (84%)

    Lakers-Rockets Under 234 === I've seen some sharp money coming in on the Under in this game. Was 233 than up to 226 now back down to 224.

    After the 50th game of the season, when a road team is favored by 6 to 16.5 points, they’ve gone 702-509-21 (57.97%)

    Spurs - 8

    NBA teams off a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over 56-28-1 to the Over (66.7%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.

    Mavs-Pelicans Over 240.5

    Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 51-17 SU and 46-20-2 ATS (69.7%) in their last 68 tries.

    Warriors -7 

    That's all folks. Follow or Fade. The choice is yours. Personally I only bet on the last 2 trends myself. Mr. Loser passed on tonight's card. BOL!

     

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 17, 2026 - 6:47 PM ET #105

    Yesterday's trends 2-3  == I went 1-0-1 because I found a 240 on the Mavs-Pelicans game. Tonight's trends are

    Beating Up On Exhausted Teams Coming Back Home 237-148-11 ATS

    Thunder - 9.5  === I see some sharp money coming in on the underdog, so for me this game is a pass.

    Win no cover & travel the very next day 60% trend over the last 10 years.

    Kings + 14

    Double-digit favorites lose last game now road favorite on the road = also a solid 60% trend over the last 10 years.

    Cavs - 12

     

    That's it for tonight. Follow or Fade. The choice is yours. Do you back trends or the due factor opposing them?

    I did bet the last 2 myself.  BOL!

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    Yesterday's trends 2-3  == I went 1-0-1 because I found a 240 on the Mavs-Pelicans game. Tonight's trends are

    Beating Up On Exhausted Teams Coming Back Home 237-148-11 ATS

    Thunder - 9.5  === I see some sharp money coming in on the underdog, so for me this game is a pass.

    Win no cover & travel the very next day 60% trend over the last 10 years.

    Kings + 14

    Double-digit favorites lose last game now road favorite on the road = also a solid 60% trend over the last 10 years.

    Cavs - 12

     

    That's it for tonight. Follow or Fade. The choice is yours. Do you back trends or the due factor opposing them?

    I did bet the last 2 myself.  BOL!

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posts: 6822
    Posted: Mar. 18, 2026 - 6:35 PM ET #106

    Yesterday's Trends 0-3 an_speechless  Any of you guys who are going with regression & fading these trends are cleaning up. Even some of the most reliable trends of the past are going down. I've really never seen anything like this over the past 20 years. We move on. Tonight

     

    Celtics after winning a low scoring game 20-1 to the Under

    Warriors - Celtics Under 216.5

    Team win no cover play very next day with travel. This trend didn't work yesterday but still over 60% ATS over the last 10 years.

    Nets + 18.5   === A note of interest. No team in the history of the NBA has ever covered a point-spread over 17 points. 0-9 small sample size.

    Well, if you don't fade these trends you're probably nuts. Fading has been a steady money-maker over the past month.

    Whatever you decide to do, BOL! With your action. And remember I am just supplying the data. The only complaint you can have with me is if my data is incorrect, which I can assure you it's not. Until tomorrow.

     

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    Yesterday's Trends 0-3 an_speechless  Any of you guys who are going with regression & fading these trends are cleaning up. Even some of the most reliable trends of the past are going down. I've really never seen anything like this over the past 20 years. We move on. Tonight

     

    Celtics after winning a low scoring game 20-1 to the Under

    Warriors - Celtics Under 216.5

    Team win no cover play very next day with travel. This trend didn't work yesterday but still over 60% ATS over the last 10 years.

    Nets + 18.5   === A note of interest. No team in the history of the NBA has ever covered a point-spread over 17 points. 0-9 small sample size.

    Well, if you don't fade these trends you're probably nuts. Fading has been a steady money-maker over the past month.

    Whatever you decide to do, BOL! With your action. And remember I am just supplying the data. The only complaint you can have with me is if my data is incorrect, which I can assure you it's not. Until tomorrow.

     

     
    rmajik
    rmajik
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2026 - 7:00 PM ET #107

    Previous game for the Celtics went over by 10 points give or take. Scored 231

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    Previous game for the Celtics went over by 10 points give or take. Scored 231

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2026 - 7:04 PM ET #108

    @rmajik

    The trend considers the posted total of the last game, not the result. Anything under 217.5 is considered a low posted total. I hope this clears that up

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    @rmajik

    The trend considers the posted total of the last game, not the result. Anything under 217.5 is considered a low posted total. I hope this clears that up

     
    TIPOF-THE-SWORD
    TIPOF-THE-SWORD
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2026 - 7:06 PM ET #109

    @Redlad

    Thanks Redlad! Never should anyone hold you accountable! BOL to you!

    TIP

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    @Redlad

    Thanks Redlad! Never should anyone hold you accountable! BOL to you!

    TIP

     
    rmajik
    rmajik
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2026 - 7:08 PM ET #110

    Sorry thought you meant. Celtics after a low scoring previous game, which went way over the total 

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    Sorry thought you meant. Celtics after a low scoring previous game, which went way over the total 

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 18, 2026 - 7:16 PM ET #111

    @rmajik

     

    No problem. I certainly could have been more clear in writing the trend. BYW, you might have noticed that the sharp money is on the Over. The total opened up at 214 & it is now up to 216.5

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    @rmajik

     

    No problem. I certainly could have been more clear in writing the trend. BYW, you might have noticed that the sharp money is on the Over. The total opened up at 214 & it is now up to 216.5

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 19, 2026 - 6:47 PM ET #112

    Yesterday's Trends went 0-2. As some of you have probably noticed. Fading these trends seem to be FREE MONEY. Regression is a real thing. In gambling as well as in life. I wonder how long this trend (of Fading the trends) will keep up? Eventually I imagine this current trend will have to reverse. At least one would think. But, until it does. Let's keep banging away with the FADE angle. Tonight

     

    When Hornets play an above 500 team the under has hit 26 out of the last 38 times

    Hornets-Magic Under 227

    Large road favorites after the All Star break 26–10 ATS the last few years

    Pistons - 14

    Over the last 30 years 9 or higher favorites off a win versus a team off of a loss the Under has hit 58% of the time.

    Suns-Spurs Under 228

    An observation I made while watching the Lakers win over the Rockets. When James was interviewed after the game he mentioned how tired the team might be when traveling to Miami tonight.I'll take him at his word & play 

    Miami - 5

    OK guys. You know what to do. Keep cashing on the Fade angle & BOL!

     

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    Yesterday's Trends went 0-2. As some of you have probably noticed. Fading these trends seem to be FREE MONEY. Regression is a real thing. In gambling as well as in life. I wonder how long this trend (of Fading the trends) will keep up? Eventually I imagine this current trend will have to reverse. At least one would think. But, until it does. Let's keep banging away with the FADE angle. Tonight

     

    When Hornets play an above 500 team the under has hit 26 out of the last 38 times

    Hornets-Magic Under 227

    Large road favorites after the All Star break 26–10 ATS the last few years

    Pistons - 14

    Over the last 30 years 9 or higher favorites off a win versus a team off of a loss the Under has hit 58% of the time.

    Suns-Spurs Under 228

    An observation I made while watching the Lakers win over the Rockets. When James was interviewed after the game he mentioned how tired the team might be when traveling to Miami tonight.I'll take him at his word & play 

    Miami - 5

    OK guys. You know what to do. Keep cashing on the Fade angle & BOL!

     

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 20, 2026 - 6:17 PM ET #113

    Yesterday's Trends 2-1 Of course === Tonight

     

    Knicks more than a 17 point favorite and last game blow-out versus Nets getting blown out.

    Nets + 17.5

    Atlanta on a huge winning streak & now on the road.

    Rockets - 3

    Nuggets great bounce-back team after a loss when favored by double digits last game.

    Nuggets - 7

    This season, underdogs of five or fewer points who played their last game on the road who also have a winning percentage of less than 50% and who score less points per game than the league average have gone 22-4 ATS (84.62%, +17.6u, 61.54% ROI) versus teams that made the playoffs last season and score more points per game than the league average.

    Blazers + 2

    That's all folks. Follow or Fade. Your choice. Let the chips fall where they may.

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    Yesterday's Trends 2-1 Of course === Tonight

     

    Knicks more than a 17 point favorite and last game blow-out versus Nets getting blown out.

    Nets + 17.5

    Atlanta on a huge winning streak & now on the road.

    Rockets - 3

    Nuggets great bounce-back team after a loss when favored by double digits last game.

    Nuggets - 7

    This season, underdogs of five or fewer points who played their last game on the road who also have a winning percentage of less than 50% and who score less points per game than the league average have gone 22-4 ATS (84.62%, +17.6u, 61.54% ROI) versus teams that made the playoffs last season and score more points per game than the league average.

    Blazers + 2

    That's all folks. Follow or Fade. Your choice. Let the chips fall where they may.

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 21, 2026 - 5:49 PM ET #114

    Yesterday's Trends 3-1 one point away from being 4-0 an_speechless See what happened since I mentioned the word FADE? It's like magic.

     

    Today

    Wizards + 21 team off blow-out win against team with blow-out loss === This is just for record keeping . I know the game just started. Sorry

    Magic + 4.5   Lakers on 8 game winning streak & now on the road

    17+ point favorites less than .600 at least 60 games in the season have leaned heavily UNDER 16-4 to the Under

    Grizzlies-Hornets Under 234

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    Yesterday's Trends 3-1 one point away from being 4-0 an_speechless See what happened since I mentioned the word FADE? It's like magic.

     

    Today

    Wizards + 21 team off blow-out win against team with blow-out loss === This is just for record keeping . I know the game just started. Sorry

    Magic + 4.5   Lakers on 8 game winning streak & now on the road

    17+ point favorites less than .600 at least 60 games in the season have leaned heavily UNDER 16-4 to the Under

    Grizzlies-Hornets Under 234

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 22, 2026 - 5:11 PM ET #115

    Yesterday's trends went 2-0 & a push 7-2 last 9

     

    Celtics - 9.5   = Celtics's one of the better teams coming off a straight-up loss.

    Suns + 4.5  == Suns off a double-digit loss. Teams in this situation only 55%ATS this year, but traditionally have been a good investment through the years.

    Suns-Raptors Under 220.5  === A friend of mine whose red-hot likes this play.

    Mr. Loser is on Connecticut - 4.5 in the NCAA tournament. Warning Mr. Loser is 50-50 so far this year. His best showing in the last 10 years.

    BOL & today.

     

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    Yesterday's trends went 2-0 & a push 7-2 last 9

     

    Celtics - 9.5   = Celtics's one of the better teams coming off a straight-up loss.

    Suns + 4.5  == Suns off a double-digit loss. Teams in this situation only 55%ATS this year, but traditionally have been a good investment through the years.

    Suns-Raptors Under 220.5  === A friend of mine whose red-hot likes this play.

    Mr. Loser is on Connecticut - 4.5 in the NCAA tournament. Warning Mr. Loser is 50-50 so far this year. His best showing in the last 10 years.

    BOL & today.

     

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 22, 2026 - 5:18 PM ET #116

    Correction on last post. It should read Celtics one of the better teams coming off a double-digit straight-up loss.

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    Correction on last post. It should read Celtics one of the better teams coming off a double-digit straight-up loss.

     
    MrFreedo
    MrFreedo
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    Posted: Mar. 22, 2026 - 6:10 PM ET #117

    Quote Originally Posted by Redlad:

    Correction on last post. It should read Celtics one of the better teams coming off a double-digit straight-up loss.

    @Redlad

    Celtics are not coming off a loss

    Suns are not coming off a double digit loss

    paint_help

     

     

    to win 1u unless noted
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    Quote Originally Posted by Redlad:

    Correction on last post. It should read Celtics one of the better teams coming off a double-digit straight-up loss.

    @Redlad

    Celtics are not coming off a loss

    Suns are not coming off a double digit loss

    paint_help

     

     

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 22, 2026 - 6:34 PM ET #118

    @MrFreedo

    OK == Let me clean this up a little. What it should have read is 

    Celtics coming off a loss against the T-Wolves last time they met.  Celtics are a very good revenge team when trying to avenge a team they have lost to last time they played. 

    Suns are coming off a loss where they were a double-digit favorite last game.

    I'm concentrating on the NCAA tournament, so I typed today's trends in a rush. = Sorry for the confusion.

     

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    @MrFreedo

    OK == Let me clean this up a little. What it should have read is 

    Celtics coming off a loss against the T-Wolves last time they met.  Celtics are a very good revenge team when trying to avenge a team they have lost to last time they played. 

    Suns are coming off a loss where they were a double-digit favorite last game.

    I'm concentrating on the NCAA tournament, so I typed today's trends in a rush. = Sorry for the confusion.

     

     
    papsmear
    papsmear
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2026 - 2:26 PM ET #119

    Miami 7-2 ats and straight up as a home dog. Spurs 1-6 ats as 4-6 point road favorite.

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    Miami 7-2 ats and straight up as a home dog. Spurs 1-6 ats as 4-6 point road favorite.

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 23, 2026 - 6:53 PM ET #120

    Yesterday's Trends 2-2 Today

    Bet against team on an 8 or winning streak if playing on the road

    Pistons + 2 

    76ers + 16.5

    Bet on teams coming off a very close loss

    Heat + 4

    Bet against the Warriors when they are small favorites on the road.

    Mavericks + 2

    2025 Pistons Under’s as Small Favorite/Dog 25-6-1 to the under

    Lakers - Pistons Under 226

    My friend who is hot took the Grizzlies + 14

    I'm not in front of my computer, so I wasn't able to list all the trend results. Trends have been hot lately, but that doesn't mean it must continue. Take what you like & leave the rest. I do not play all of these listed trends myself. BOL !

     

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    Yesterday's Trends 2-2 Today

    Bet against team on an 8 or winning streak if playing on the road

    Pistons + 2 

    76ers + 16.5

    Bet on teams coming off a very close loss

    Heat + 4

    Bet against the Warriors when they are small favorites on the road.

    Mavericks + 2

    2025 Pistons Under’s as Small Favorite/Dog 25-6-1 to the under

    Lakers - Pistons Under 226

    My friend who is hot took the Grizzlies + 14

    I'm not in front of my computer, so I wasn't able to list all the trend results. Trends have been hot lately, but that doesn't mean it must continue. Take what you like & leave the rest. I do not play all of these listed trends myself. BOL !

     

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 24, 2026 - 6:32 PM ET #121

    Yesterday's Trends 2-3   Tonight

    Knicks - Pelicans Over 229.5  =This has to do with a team coming off a blowout playing a team off a straight-up Loss

    Denver - 6     Strong away road favorites after game 70 of the season preform well 58% ATS

    Magic + 10.5  Cavs have been terrible double-digit favorites so far this season 10-24 ATS

    That's it for tonight = Follow or Fade. The choice is yours. Remember I only supply the data & do not play all of these trends unless they agree with my own numbers.

     

    BOL!

     

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    Yesterday's Trends 2-3   Tonight

    Knicks - Pelicans Over 229.5  =This has to do with a team coming off a blowout playing a team off a straight-up Loss

    Denver - 6     Strong away road favorites after game 70 of the season preform well 58% ATS

    Magic + 10.5  Cavs have been terrible double-digit favorites so far this season 10-24 ATS

    That's it for tonight = Follow or Fade. The choice is yours. Remember I only supply the data & do not play all of these trends unless they agree with my own numbers.

     

    BOL!

     

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 25, 2026 - 6:28 PM ET #122

    Yesterday's Trends 2-1   Tonight. I'm not in front of my computer so I'll not be able to post some of the trends, just the sides on most. Let's see.

    Celtics + 3  === The Celtics are 13-2 after losing as a double-digit favorite last game. Some sharps are on the other side of this one. I lean Celtics though.

    Late season Intra division Celtics games have gone Under the total 26 out of the last 32 times

    Celtics-Thunder Under 221  ===== A lot of sharp money against this trend. I tend to agree with the sharps on this total. I like it to go Over as well.

    Rested road teams against a home squad Above .600 on the year who are fresh off a high scoring game (+120) but didn’t cover, are 24-1 ATS (96%)

    Heat +2.5 & Mavericks +12.5

    Blow-out win Versus blow-out loss 

    Grizzlies + 17 & Bucks + 13 

    That's all folks  ==== Follow Or Fade. The choice is yours. I just supply the data. BOL!

     

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    Yesterday's Trends 2-1   Tonight. I'm not in front of my computer so I'll not be able to post some of the trends, just the sides on most. Let's see.

    Celtics + 3  === The Celtics are 13-2 after losing as a double-digit favorite last game. Some sharps are on the other side of this one. I lean Celtics though.

    Late season Intra division Celtics games have gone Under the total 26 out of the last 32 times

    Celtics-Thunder Under 221  ===== A lot of sharp money against this trend. I tend to agree with the sharps on this total. I like it to go Over as well.

    Rested road teams against a home squad Above .600 on the year who are fresh off a high scoring game (+120) but didn’t cover, are 24-1 ATS (96%)

    Heat +2.5 & Mavericks +12.5

    Blow-out win Versus blow-out loss 

    Grizzlies + 17 & Bucks + 13 

    That's all folks  ==== Follow Or Fade. The choice is yours. I just supply the data. BOL!

     

     
    smellybunty
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    Posted: Mar. 26, 2026 - 12:55 AM ET #123

    Garbage teams cover at a shit rate this time of year. Bucks have been a great fade too.

    But Heat and Mavs were a great play 26-1

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    Garbage teams cover at a shit rate this time of year. Bucks have been a great fade too.

    But Heat and Mavs were a great play 26-1

     
    Redlad
    Redlad
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    Posted: Mar. 26, 2026 - 6:43 PM ET #124

    Yesterday's Trends 3-2   Tonight only one I can see.

    Hornets vs. Above .500 Teams This Season 26-13 to the Under

    Knicks - Hornets Under 224.5

    Follow or Fade Trend continues or regresses. Your decision.

     

    BOL

     

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    Yesterday's Trends 3-2   Tonight only one I can see.

    Hornets vs. Above .500 Teams This Season 26-13 to the Under

    Knicks - Hornets Under 224.5

    Follow or Fade Trend continues or regresses. Your decision.

     

    BOL

     

     
     
    football_007
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    Posted: Mar. 26, 2026 - 6:49 PM ET #125

    coolclover

    @Redlad

     

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    coolclover

    @Redlad

     

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