CrazyMilkMan's NBA Playoffs Wednesday

CMM , im thinkin Den & O 1st h... any thoughts on this ?

thanks again

Love all of those "dog" bets, CMM. Until the "chalks" can cover, I am going with the points. Lakers win, but in a close, non-cover.

Great work. Thanks and good luck to all.

EVIL E.

I like the Grizz +8.0

Yes, the Spurs should win, but I don't see a double digit win for the Spurs. They just aren't playing very well right now. They have eased into the regular season, injuries, etc. and they have struggled to turn it on for the playoffs.

CMM..

spend my time "capping the cappers" and since you're one of my regular reads, want to share what's been working pretty well..

noticed an exploitable trend during the NCAA pre-tourney tournament games that solidified over time. took it over to the nba final two weeks and through to the playoffs..

real simple theory goes something like this..

dominant teams play both offense and defense but like to save the "shutdown D" for the 2nd half in NCAA and 3rd or 4th Q in NBA..

that's because D takes a lot of energy, and in playoff games, you want to save something for a "finishing kick" whether that kick is offense, defense, or both..

so, the betting strategy is to take the dog for the first half,  preferrably a 10 pt. dog.. both spread and ML..

same concept also suggests that the 1H will tend to go over as they both keep pace with each other on offense, a 2H under as one or both clamp down and tighten up.. applied more to NCAA than it does in NBA playoffs, but does to some extent..

so, used this approach throughout the tourneys and did well, esp. the 2H unders on a selective basis courtesy of senseikreese..

was ambivalent on the Nat'l Champ game, so for a laugher, bought a $40 exacta ticket with Butler at half, UConn at game.. fun and funny..

watched it work in the last two weeks of the NBA season esp. on doge like SAC, HOU, and GSW, maybe CHA..

brought it into the first round of the NBA playoffs and went 7-0 by intuitively staying away from POR.DAL for which it didn't work.. btw, went RR parlay on both Spread and ML and both worked..

it's worked on a selective basis in the 2nd round..

will be using it with your DEN and MEM picks, but 1H both spread and ML..

not sure what to think about NOR/LAL.. it's a stay away and watch for me.. it seems that LA will try to punch themin the nose  hard in the 1st Q.. the only Q is, does LA still even have a good punch to give in 1st Q.. probably yes, but want to wait, watch and see..

thanks for the thorough analysis and thoughtful comments..

kutgw..