Bucks -4.5

4 days ago the Bucks were -7.5 at home vs the Pistons.   So take 3 points off that and you have -4.5 in Detroit.

Detroit has been playing one of the most brutal schedules in the NBA for the last 2-3 weeks.   A lot of games , a lot of road games, and a lot of back to backs.  They play better at home but they still fucking suck, and the Bucks handled them easily 4 days ago.   The Bucks are 8-1 on one days rest (Detroit is 2-11-1 on one day) and have covered 5 spreads in a row, 2 of them on the road against Houston and Chicago,  far better teams than Detroit.    It's also a very short plane ride from Milwaukee to Detroit.

Gooden is averaging very close to 20 pnts and 10 boards since taking over for Bogut.   The might lose a little bit on defense with this guy but he is playing much better on offense than Bogut was and he's a better free throw shooter.   Jennings is in the zone right now.   Ilyasova is hitting the boards.   They put Mbah A Moute on the best player on the opposing team usually to try and shut him down, which I like.    Stuckey might no be 100% healthy tonight either.

As far as looking ahead to Chicago in Milwaukee on Saturday night,  I don't buy that one either.    Seriously doubt the Bucks think they are going to win this division being 7 games out right now.   They just want to make the playoffs and go from there.   Every game matters whether it's Detroit or Chicago.    

This game might be a little closer than the one in Milwaukee but I still see the Bucks winning and covering.     Bucks are really bringing the effort on Defense lately.   Skiles is doing a good job coaching this year. 

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If you go back a little further than 5 days,  the Bucks have covered 7 of their last 8 spreads with 4 being on the road vs Hou, Chicago, New York, and Miami.

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I remember a lot of people on Monday saying that the Bucks were going to be looking ahead to playing the Heat two days later and wouldn't cover against the Pistons.    In my mind, that probably was a bigger look ahead spot than tonight is.    Miami is a big game for everybody.   The look ahead didn't materialize and the Bucks won by 21 vs the Pistons.

I follow this team and I've never gotten the feeling that they get up more when they play the Bulls.    Might be just my opinion.   It doesn't seem like that big of a rivalry to be honest with you at this point.   It was pretty big when Jordan was playing but don't think it's the same now.   

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Those handicapping angles like "revenge" and "looking ahead" are shaky angles to begin with.

All I read on Wednesday on here was "the heat want revenge".

Yea, they got "revenge" by getting their ass handed to them in the second half of that game.

Quote Originally Posted by cashinsports:

let's hope the bucks give full effort tonight

People should be worried about Detroit giving a full effort.   As I mentioned above they have had a very dense schedule for the last few weeks.    That's what destroyed Atlanta last night,  not that it was a trap.   The Hawks were just exhausted.   They had played a back to back a day before they started that road trip.

Quote Originally Posted by PureButta:

The Pistons haven't had more than 1 day off between games all year

Exactly.   People are insinuating that the Bucks aren't going to be ready for this one, how about looking at the other side?     What motivation do the Pistons have at this point besides getting the #1 pick in the draft.?   And they are tired on top of it.  

And if you look at the line it's exactly 3 points less than it was 4 days ago in Milwaukee.    That's the normal adjustment for an away game and a home game.   

It's Leona Lewis, the worlds greatest best pop singer.

Home court is worth about 3.5 points. At home, Milwaukee was -7.5 a few days ago. That means on a neutral court, Milwaukee should be -4, and in Detroit a fair line is Milwaukee -.5 (pk or -1). And that's based off an already inflated line from this past Monday's game, this spread is 5-6 full points off a fair line for Milwaukee bettors.

You guys are right about the 6 point swing instead of the 3 point swing for home and away.   My mistake.     

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Well Sagarin has the Bucks at about -6.5.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba1112.htm

And I know a lot of people don't respect Sagarin so don't even say it.

You really think the Bucks should only be a 1 point favorite in this game?    You're talking about one of the worst teams in the NBA against one of the hottest teams in the NBA.