Posted:
#1
Noticed the last two days. The biggest public plays lose.
Today was Orlando and Boston...
Yday was lakers and Utah
Day before was Philly and boston
Bet against the public
...
Views: 1608
Posts: 22
..Utah covered yesterday...
Posted:
#7
Quote Originally Posted by skillahmang:
@davemsh I agree all these trends come and go. trust im always tryna crack one. im just sayin were focusing on the 1 loss. instead of analyzing
@davemsh I agree all these trends come and go. trust im always tryna crack one. im just sayin were focusing on the 1 loss. instead of analyzing
I use to always fade the highest % on covers 3-4 years ago...Trust me if u faded the highest % you would end up losing. You won't win a lot but you won't lose either...I would say it hits about 55% of the time..I thought I was sharp and was going to fade the public...Does not work that way...Someone would have figured it out years ago...
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Posted:
#10
Quote Originally Posted by Unplug:
No no I know it's the last 3 days but curious to see how it plays out. In the nfl it was massive close 70% betting 3 a week. Let's see how it goes here I'll keep track for tomorrow too. Yes Utah did win but put it there to shows its not 100%. Let see Ats 5-1 Ml 5-1
No no I know it's the last 3 days but curious to see how it plays out. In the nfl it was massive close 70% betting 3 a week. Let's see how it goes here I'll keep track for tomorrow too. Yes Utah did win but put it there to shows its not 100%. Let see Ats 5-1 Ml 5-1
Give it 2 weeks and it will be 50% ATS..Been there down that...
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Posted:
#15
I don't think it's a good idea to just blindly fade the public for any kind of play. Why are you making the bet? If you're just firing because the public can't be right about a side, that's lazy capping. You could get crushed if the public starts hitting for a week or two. You don't think that ever happens? A better strategy is to look at consensus numbers and ask yourself if that's justified based on how the teams are playing recently. I actually like the numbers on Covers because sometimes I see the percentages and I don't think they line up with how people should be picking the game. Other times I've seen 70% on a side and my first thought is of course. There's no way you could pick the other side other than being a contrarian or hoping for a miracle. Watch the teams and form your opinions about how good or bad they are. Yeah, you might be wrong but at least you did it on your own. There's no fucking way anyone has struck it rich by just fading the most popular plays every day. You're probably like 1 of a million people who considered that idea already, which means it's not a genius move.
Posted:
#16
Quote Originally Posted by sicknesscity:
I don't think it's a good idea to just blindly fade the public for any kind of play. Why are you making the bet? If you're just firing because the public can't be right about a side, that's lazy capping. You could get crushed if the public starts hitting for a week or two. You don't think that ever happens? A better strategy is to look at consensus numbers and ask yourself if that's justified based on how the teams are playing recently. I actually like the numbers on Covers because sometimes I see the percentages and I don't think they line up with how people should be picking the game. Other times I've seen 70% on a side and my first thought is of course. There's no way you could pick the other side other than being a contrarian or hoping for a miracle. Watch the teams and form your opinions about how good or bad they are. Yeah, you might be wrong but at least you did it on your own. There's no fucking way anyone has struck it rich by just fading the most popular plays every day. You're probably like 1 of a million people who considered that idea already, which means it's not a genius move.
I don't think it's a good idea to just blindly fade the public for any kind of play. Why are you making the bet? If you're just firing because the public can't be right about a side, that's lazy capping. You could get crushed if the public starts hitting for a week or two. You don't think that ever happens? A better strategy is to look at consensus numbers and ask yourself if that's justified based on how the teams are playing recently. I actually like the numbers on Covers because sometimes I see the percentages and I don't think they line up with how people should be picking the game. Other times I've seen 70% on a side and my first thought is of course. There's no way you could pick the other side other than being a contrarian or hoping for a miracle. Watch the teams and form your opinions about how good or bad they are. Yeah, you might be wrong but at least you did it on your own. There's no fucking way anyone has struck it rich by just fading the most popular plays every day. You're probably like 1 of a million people who considered that idea already, which means it's not a genius move.
..Seen numerous threads about this over the years....I even tried it myself....Short term you may get lucky and catch lightning in a bottle...Long term...zero chance...as it goes back and forth and you need discipline to ride it out over the long haul...As you mentioned...the so called public can get hot for a 2 weeks...
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