Posted:
#1
As we know NBA is marathon not a sprint so players pick their spots and get motivated to win the games.
The playoffs are altogether different and need a different approach. Some people realise this, new people dont.
Blindly betting into regular season trends and form is a recipe for disaster.
Lets break this down.
Game 1s.
This game sets the tone for the series.The home team believes it will win and thus although motivated maybe a little complacent.
Case in point.
Orlando 14 point lead, lost outright in the 4th Qtr.
Spurs lead by DD, lost outright to the Mavs.
Lakers up by 22 , won only by 13.
Why well because the away team has the best chance of getting an advantage in the series in game 1, win it and they can relax and afford to lose the next game.It also puts a seed of doubt in the oppopents mind.
Game 2
Home losers of game 1.
Portland, Spurs, Orlando see this as a do or die must win game.
Effectively lose and the season is almost over.
The pressure is off the away team to perform since it won game one. This means either a blowout in the case of Dallas who didnt even try to compete, or Rockets who compete in every game and rarely get blown out.
Winners of game 1
Cavs and Lakers, Atlanta and Nuggets.all covered game 1.
All let by DD at HT.
Cavs and Lakers almost identical games in game 2 leading early and fading late.
Why??? well the opp lost game 1, there is incentive to compete. However Lakers and Cavs are too strong at home there is no chance of an early dog covering the half or qtr.The chance of a game is increased by about 30% at HT.The starters relax, the bench comes in, FT are made, missed and the away team rallies if it wants to compete aka jazz and pistons.
Atlanta, and Nuggets could well go exactly the same way.Miami is more difficult to predict given Wade going nuts and hitting 50 if he wants to.
In these game the pressure is on Hornets and Heat to get one back. The game will result in a tighter ending and maybe a missed or made FT at the end of the game. Im not expecting blowouts.Though Denver plays slightly differently and may play hard all game.
I see no value in Hornets ML or Miami ML like i would in regular season but I see Nuggets covering the 6 and ATL up at HT and miami competing this game to make it tense going either way but atl winning.
Orlando lost game 1. I expect them to come out firing exactly as Portland and Spurs did.
A 1st Qtr, HF and 1st HF over would be my preferred layout but on magic games I dont know what to expect they are just too inconsistent, winning by 20 or losing by 20 there is no middle ground. A 1st Qtr and over to me presents more value than the game spread.Lose and I would double up on the 2nd Qtr.
As always GL on all your plays
The playoffs are altogether different and need a different approach. Some people realise this, new people dont.
Blindly betting into regular season trends and form is a recipe for disaster.
Lets break this down.
Game 1s.
This game sets the tone for the series.The home team believes it will win and thus although motivated maybe a little complacent.
Case in point.
Orlando 14 point lead, lost outright in the 4th Qtr.
Spurs lead by DD, lost outright to the Mavs.
Lakers up by 22 , won only by 13.
Why well because the away team has the best chance of getting an advantage in the series in game 1, win it and they can relax and afford to lose the next game.It also puts a seed of doubt in the oppopents mind.
Game 2
Home losers of game 1.
Portland, Spurs, Orlando see this as a do or die must win game.
Effectively lose and the season is almost over.
The pressure is off the away team to perform since it won game one. This means either a blowout in the case of Dallas who didnt even try to compete, or Rockets who compete in every game and rarely get blown out.
Winners of game 1
Cavs and Lakers, Atlanta and Nuggets.all covered game 1.
All let by DD at HT.
Cavs and Lakers almost identical games in game 2 leading early and fading late.
Why??? well the opp lost game 1, there is incentive to compete. However Lakers and Cavs are too strong at home there is no chance of an early dog covering the half or qtr.The chance of a game is increased by about 30% at HT.The starters relax, the bench comes in, FT are made, missed and the away team rallies if it wants to compete aka jazz and pistons.
Atlanta, and Nuggets could well go exactly the same way.Miami is more difficult to predict given Wade going nuts and hitting 50 if he wants to.
In these game the pressure is on Hornets and Heat to get one back. The game will result in a tighter ending and maybe a missed or made FT at the end of the game. Im not expecting blowouts.Though Denver plays slightly differently and may play hard all game.
I see no value in Hornets ML or Miami ML like i would in regular season but I see Nuggets covering the 6 and ATL up at HT and miami competing this game to make it tense going either way but atl winning.
Orlando lost game 1. I expect them to come out firing exactly as Portland and Spurs did.
A 1st Qtr, HF and 1st HF over would be my preferred layout but on magic games I dont know what to expect they are just too inconsistent, winning by 20 or losing by 20 there is no middle ground. A 1st Qtr and over to me presents more value than the game spread.Lose and I would double up on the 2nd Qtr.
As always GL on all your plays
0
great write up
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