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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    06-09-11 Game 5

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    CalBear
    kaponofor3
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    PropKing82
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    CalBear
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 3:43 PM ET #1

    Playoffs: 35-14

    1-0-1 last night, don't keep record of ties.

    On to Game 5...and it doesn't seem like much are givng Dallas a chance to win this game.  The three main reasons for this, IMO, are below.

    1) Lebron won't play as bad this time around:

    I'm sure many think LeBron will come out and torch Dallas for 40 tomorrow, but something is bothering this guy.  This reminds me of the Boston series last year when he disappeared and we later hear about the Delonte incident.  This jumped out to me in Game 2, when there was about a 5 minute break to clean a spill during the game.  LeBron was sitting against the hoop looking completly disengaged.  He has not been playing with much energy and just doesn't look focused.  This may have to do with exhaustion as he has played, I believe 44+ mins during these playoffs, with hardly any rest in the 4Q.  Whatever it is, he just doesn't seem the same and it will be difficult for Miami to win if he continues to struggle.

    2) People believe Miami will not lose two in a row.  And are implementing aggressive "chase" systems with this thought.  This could lead to disaster if Dallas wins the next two games, but than again, not many believe they can so I guess it's guaranteed.

    3) Miami is the better team and should have swept Dallas but they gave Dallas Game 4 and as well as Game 2.

    People just don't believe in this Dallas team and keep coming up with excuses as to why they are winning and mention how much they win buy.  A win is a win is a win and that is essentially all they have to do to cover Game 5.  As I've mentioned, the scary part is that Dallas is shooting poorly missing many open looks and are still winning.  They shot below 40% in Game 4 and still won.  Dirk stepped up in the 4Q but played like shit most the game and they still won. Again, they missed many WIDE open shots and they still won. That is a result of their stellar defense that is overshadowed by all the talk about Miami's great defense.  If Dallas continues to get all those open looks as they did in Game 4, I'd be worried if I was Miami.

    I'll lock in Dallas before tip off as I believe this line will go lower, but I'll use -1.5 for record purposes.

     

    Dallas -1.5

    Good luck everyone!

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Playoffs: 35-14

    1-0-1 last night, don't keep record of ties.

    On to Game 5...and it doesn't seem like much are givng Dallas a chance to win this game.  The three main reasons for this, IMO, are below.

    1) Lebron won't play as bad this time around:

    I'm sure many think LeBron will come out and torch Dallas for 40 tomorrow, but something is bothering this guy.  This reminds me of the Boston series last year when he disappeared and we later hear about the Delonte incident.  This jumped out to me in Game 2, when there was about a 5 minute break to clean a spill during the game.  LeBron was sitting against the hoop looking completly disengaged.  He has not been playing with much energy and just doesn't look focused.  This may have to do with exhaustion as he has played, I believe 44+ mins during these playoffs, with hardly any rest in the 4Q.  Whatever it is, he just doesn't seem the same and it will be difficult for Miami to win if he continues to struggle.

    2) People believe Miami will not lose two in a row.  And are implementing aggressive "chase" systems with this thought.  This could lead to disaster if Dallas wins the next two games, but than again, not many believe they can so I guess it's guaranteed.

    3) Miami is the better team and should have swept Dallas but they gave Dallas Game 4 and as well as Game 2.

    People just don't believe in this Dallas team and keep coming up with excuses as to why they are winning and mention how much they win buy.  A win is a win is a win and that is essentially all they have to do to cover Game 5.  As I've mentioned, the scary part is that Dallas is shooting poorly missing many open looks and are still winning.  They shot below 40% in Game 4 and still won.  Dirk stepped up in the 4Q but played like shit most the game and they still won. Again, they missed many WIDE open shots and they still won. That is a result of their stellar defense that is overshadowed by all the talk about Miami's great defense.  If Dallas continues to get all those open looks as they did in Game 4, I'd be worried if I was Miami.

    I'll lock in Dallas before tip off as I believe this line will go lower, but I'll use -1.5 for record purposes.

     

    Dallas -1.5

    Good luck everyone!

     
    kaponofor3
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 3:48 PM ET #2

    I will be on Dallas in Game 5 as well
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    I will be on Dallas in Game 5 as well
     
    mws
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 3:51 PM ET #3

    Good analysis. 
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    Good analysis. 
     
    PropKing82
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 3:51 PM ET #4

    Couldn't agree with you more.
    People are going to lose their asses off with this chase system, you can count on it.
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    Couldn't agree with you more.
    People are going to lose their asses off with this chase system, you can count on it.
     
    StringerBellFU
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 4:29 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by PropKing82:

    Couldn't agree with you more.
    People are going to lose their asses off with this chase system, you can count on it.

    Most of the people who took Dallas last night used the same analysis.  I think they only lost b2b home games twice in the regular season, had ridiculous ats numbers off a loss, and haven't lost b2b in the playoffs yet.  All solid reasons to take Dallas and they ended up winning and pushing.  Now Miami is in the same bounce back situation dallas was in last night, haven't lost b2b games in forever, none in the playoffs, yet now its a BAD reason to take Miami because too many people know the stat?  Doesn't make sense too me. The same logic you used to take Dallas yesterday seems like good logic to take Miami game 5.  Just because its obvious doesn't mean it can't happen.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PropKing82:

    Couldn't agree with you more.
    People are going to lose their asses off with this chase system, you can count on it.

    Most of the people who took Dallas last night used the same analysis.  I think they only lost b2b home games twice in the regular season, had ridiculous ats numbers off a loss, and haven't lost b2b in the playoffs yet.  All solid reasons to take Dallas and they ended up winning and pushing.  Now Miami is in the same bounce back situation dallas was in last night, haven't lost b2b games in forever, none in the playoffs, yet now its a BAD reason to take Miami because too many people know the stat?  Doesn't make sense too me. The same logic you used to take Dallas yesterday seems like good logic to take Miami game 5.  Just because its obvious doesn't mean it can't happen.
     
    Professional1
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 4:34 PM ET #6

    nice avatar AI crossing up MJ!
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    nice avatar AI crossing up MJ!
     
    CalBear
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 4:47 PM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by StringerBellFU:


    Most of the people who took Dallas last night used the same analysis.  I think they only lost b2b home games twice in the regular season, had ridiculous ats numbers off a loss, and haven't lost b2b in the playoffs yet.  All solid reasons to take Dallas and they ended up winning and pushing.  Now Miami is in the same bounce back situation dallas was in last night, haven't lost b2b games in forever, none in the playoffs, yet now its a BAD reason to take Miami because too many people know the stat?  Doesn't make sense too me. The same logic you used to take Dallas yesterday seems like good logic to take Miami game 5.  Just because its obvious doesn't mean it can't happen.

    Betting doesn't always make sense, that's why it's so hard.  Nevertheless, losing b2b home games is a different than losing b2b road games.  GL with Miami.

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    Quote Originally Posted by StringerBellFU:


    Most of the people who took Dallas last night used the same analysis.  I think they only lost b2b home games twice in the regular season, had ridiculous ats numbers off a loss, and haven't lost b2b in the playoffs yet.  All solid reasons to take Dallas and they ended up winning and pushing.  Now Miami is in the same bounce back situation dallas was in last night, haven't lost b2b games in forever, none in the playoffs, yet now its a BAD reason to take Miami because too many people know the stat?  Doesn't make sense too me. The same logic you used to take Dallas yesterday seems like good logic to take Miami game 5.  Just because its obvious doesn't mean it can't happen.

    Betting doesn't always make sense, that's why it's so hard.  Nevertheless, losing b2b home games is a different than losing b2b road games.  GL with Miami.

     
    CalBear
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 4:50 PM ET #8

    Quote Originally Posted by Professional1:

    nice avatar AI crossing up MJ!

    I just you tubed it the other day...it never gets old.  Did you watch the documentry on "30 for 30" about Pablo Escobar?  Really good shit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Professional1:

    nice avatar AI crossing up MJ!

    I just you tubed it the other day...it never gets old.  Did you watch the documentry on "30 for 30" about Pablo Escobar?  Really good shit.

     
    CalBear
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 4:50 PM ET #9

    Thx for the posts and GL everyone.
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    Thx for the posts and GL everyone.
     
    Professional1
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 4:59 PM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by CalBear:

    I just you tubed it the other day...it never gets old.  Did you watch the documentry on "30 for 30" about Pablo Escobar?  Really good shit.



    Yes it was great.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CalBear:

    I just you tubed it the other day...it never gets old.  Did you watch the documentry on "30 for 30" about Pablo Escobar?  Really good shit.



    Yes it was great.
     
    Crusher13
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 5:05 PM ET #11

    Cal this series is overdue for a statement game.......Especially by the Dallas Mavericks...for the following reasons

       #1 Shooting Mavs have shot ball terribly all series. They WILL regain that form(which was on full display in both Lakers/Thunder series'). You can't keep a pretty good shooting team down for that looonnngg.....No way, ain't gonna happen. Mavs will finally have a night when "some" of their shots fall

      #2 HEAT look really tired...been chasing Dallas relentlessly (they deserve many props for their great D so far) but these short 2 day breaks are finally GOING to take their toll on them. Like last night, all the players were so exhausted at the end there were not any FGs made for like 4 minutes down the stretch Coach Erik Estrada has had to let them play instead of calling bad TO's to get his players some rest. Carlisle knows better, he lets Mavs run and run and run. Major advantage=MAVS

       #3 DIRK will be DIRK After a day plus of rest the Diggler will go off in his last HOME game of the campaign. All the MAVERICKS will be going full throttle in this game for that very reason, LAST CHANCE to get HOME fans a victory

       #4 MIAMI will just mail it in EXCEPT for the KING. He is going to put on a hell of a show Thursday and he just might piss off some of his teamates while he is at it I really think some of those early season team chemistry issues are resurfacing, is it LeBRON's team or D WADE's  Hmmmmmmmmmm.... Love to be a fly in the locker room or plane ride home after Heat get dismantled(hopefully)
    Mavs need to POUND them enough to get into Heat psyche, so, they go back to South Beach questioning themselves

       #5 MAVS KNOW THEY MUST WIN!!!!! Enough said, best chance to win one more game in this series for sure!!!!!!

    Thanks again for all the Mavericks support in this series. HEAT may have more TALENT but MAVS have much more HEART, DETERMINATION, and most importantly, FORTITUDE.

    This is probably their Greatest chance ever to win a TITLE and
    they ALL know it and they are not going to WASTE IT As Carlisle has mentioned all playoffs, this MAVS team is very "opportunistic!"

    Go Mavs, this one is for "DIRK"
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    Cal this series is overdue for a statement game.......Especially by the Dallas Mavericks...for the following reasons

       #1 Shooting Mavs have shot ball terribly all series. They WILL regain that form(which was on full display in both Lakers/Thunder series'). You can't keep a pretty good shooting team down for that looonnngg.....No way, ain't gonna happen. Mavs will finally have a night when "some" of their shots fall

      #2 HEAT look really tired...been chasing Dallas relentlessly (they deserve many props for their great D so far) but these short 2 day breaks are finally GOING to take their toll on them. Like last night, all the players were so exhausted at the end there were not any FGs made for like 4 minutes down the stretch Coach Erik Estrada has had to let them play instead of calling bad TO's to get his players some rest. Carlisle knows better, he lets Mavs run and run and run. Major advantage=MAVS

       #3 DIRK will be DIRK After a day plus of rest the Diggler will go off in his last HOME game of the campaign. All the MAVERICKS will be going full throttle in this game for that very reason, LAST CHANCE to get HOME fans a victory

       #4 MIAMI will just mail it in EXCEPT for the KING. He is going to put on a hell of a show Thursday and he just might piss off some of his teamates while he is at it I really think some of those early season team chemistry issues are resurfacing, is it LeBRON's team or D WADE's  Hmmmmmmmmmm.... Love to be a fly in the locker room or plane ride home after Heat get dismantled(hopefully)
    Mavs need to POUND them enough to get into Heat psyche, so, they go back to South Beach questioning themselves

       #5 MAVS KNOW THEY MUST WIN!!!!! Enough said, best chance to win one more game in this series for sure!!!!!!

    Thanks again for all the Mavericks support in this series. HEAT may have more TALENT but MAVS have much more HEART, DETERMINATION, and most importantly, FORTITUDE.

    This is probably their Greatest chance ever to win a TITLE and
    they ALL know it and they are not going to WASTE IT As Carlisle has mentioned all playoffs, this MAVS team is very "opportunistic!"

    Go Mavs, this one is for "DIRK"
     
    gambling-devil
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 5:26 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by PropKing82:

    Couldn't agree with you more.
    People are going to lose their asses off with this chase system, you can count on it.


    The chase system has been working in this series. Team has been trading win.

    Sounds like you are the one who is losing your ass so far betting against this system.
    Every day out of the red is a big win.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PropKing82:

    Couldn't agree with you more.
    People are going to lose their asses off with this chase system, you can count on it.


    The chase system has been working in this series. Team has been trading win.

    Sounds like you are the one who is losing your ass so far betting against this system.
     
    larryhughes
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 8:01 PM ET #13

    HELL YEAH


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    HELL YEAH


     
    TREE88
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 8:24 PM ET #14

    gl buddy.

    I got tired of trying pick the side and will just keep hammering the Under til it loses.

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    gl buddy.

    I got tired of trying pick the side and will just keep hammering the Under til it loses.

     
    KingElvis
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 8:54 PM ET #15

    other side but good luck
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    other side but good luck
     
    PropKing82
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 9:07 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:



    The chase system has been working in this series. Team has been trading win.

    Sounds like you are the one who is losing your ass so far betting against this system.


    I've personally only bet on Dallas to win the series at +165 odds before the series started.

    Also bet on 2 props, and flat bet them for 200 a piece.
    Dallas to win series 4-1 +765
    Dallas to win series 4-2 +620

    I will be placing a bet on Dallas game 5. Love the spot their in. Spread and ML
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    Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:



    The chase system has been working in this series. Team has been trading win.

    Sounds like you are the one who is losing your ass so far betting against this system.


    I've personally only bet on Dallas to win the series at +165 odds before the series started.

    Also bet on 2 props, and flat bet them for 200 a piece.
    Dallas to win series 4-1 +765
    Dallas to win series 4-2 +620

    I will be placing a bet on Dallas game 5. Love the spot their in. Spread and ML
     
    aireent777
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 9:08 PM ET #17

    Love Dallas on this spot. GL Cal
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    Love Dallas on this spot. GL Cal
     
    CalBear
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    Posted: Jun. 8, 2011 - 9:47 PM ET #18

    Crusher- I don't believe Miami will mail it in at all.  As far as Lebron, I believe he will put enormous pressure on himself to play well with all this talk about him being a disappearing act.  Other than that, I agree with you...well said.

    Tree- Not a bad idea.  I try to stay away from total but under has been money.  GL

    Thx and GL all
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    Crusher- I don't believe Miami will mail it in at all.  As far as Lebron, I believe he will put enormous pressure on himself to play well with all this talk about him being a disappearing act.  Other than that, I agree with you...well said.

    Tree- Not a bad idea.  I try to stay away from total but under has been money.  GL

    Thx and GL all
     
    andarmac99
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    Posted: Jun. 9, 2011 - 12:35 AM ET #19

    Nice writeup.


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    Nice writeup.


     
    2020dr
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    Posted: Jun. 9, 2011 - 12:49 AM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:

    Cal this series is overdue for a statement game.......Especially by the Dallas Mavericks...for the following reasons

       #1 Shooting Mavs have shot ball terribly all series. They WILL regain that form(which was on full display in both Lakers/Thunder series'). You can't keep a pretty good shooting team down for that looonnngg.....No way, ain't gonna happen. Mavs will finally have a night when "some" of their shots fall

      #2 HEAT look really tired...been chasing Dallas relentlessly (they deserve many props for their great D so far) but these short 2 day breaks are finally GOING to take their toll on them. Like last night, all the players were so exhausted at the end there were not any FGs made for like 4 minutes down the stretch Coach Erik Estrada has had to let them play instead of calling bad TO's to get his players some rest. Carlisle knows better, he lets Mavs run and run and run. Major advantage=MAVS

       #3 DIRK will be DIRK After a day plus of rest the Diggler will go off in his last HOME game of the campaign. All the MAVERICKS will be going full throttle in this game for that very reason, LAST CHANCE to get HOME fans a victory

       #4 MIAMI will just mail it in EXCEPT for the KING. He is going to put on a hell of a show Thursday and he just might piss off some of his teamates while he is at it I really think some of those early season team chemistry issues are resurfacing, is it LeBRON's team or D WADE's  Hmmmmmmmmmm.... Love to be a fly in the locker room or plane ride home after Heat get dismantled(hopefully)
    Mavs need to POUND them enough to get into Heat psyche, so, they go back to South Beach questioning themselves

       #5 MAVS KNOW THEY MUST WIN!!!!! Enough said, best chance to win one more game in this series for sure!!!!!!

    Thanks again for all the Mavericks support in this series. HEAT may have more TALENT but MAVS have much more HEART, DETERMINATION, and most importantly, FORTITUDE.

    This is probably their Greatest chance ever to win a TITLE and
    they ALL know it and they are not going to WASTE IT As Carlisle has mentioned all playoffs, this MAVS team is very "opportunistic!"

    Go Mavs, this one is for "DIRK"

    GREAT WRITE-UP

    GO MAVS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:

    Cal this series is overdue for a statement game.......Especially by the Dallas Mavericks...for the following reasons

       #1 Shooting Mavs have shot ball terribly all series. They WILL regain that form(which was on full display in both Lakers/Thunder series'). You can't keep a pretty good shooting team down for that looonnngg.....No way, ain't gonna happen. Mavs will finally have a night when "some" of their shots fall

      #2 HEAT look really tired...been chasing Dallas relentlessly (they deserve many props for their great D so far) but these short 2 day breaks are finally GOING to take their toll on them. Like last night, all the players were so exhausted at the end there were not any FGs made for like 4 minutes down the stretch Coach Erik Estrada has had to let them play instead of calling bad TO's to get his players some rest. Carlisle knows better, he lets Mavs run and run and run. Major advantage=MAVS

       #3 DIRK will be DIRK After a day plus of rest the Diggler will go off in his last HOME game of the campaign. All the MAVERICKS will be going full throttle in this game for that very reason, LAST CHANCE to get HOME fans a victory

       #4 MIAMI will just mail it in EXCEPT for the KING. He is going to put on a hell of a show Thursday and he just might piss off some of his teamates while he is at it I really think some of those early season team chemistry issues are resurfacing, is it LeBRON's team or D WADE's  Hmmmmmmmmmm.... Love to be a fly in the locker room or plane ride home after Heat get dismantled(hopefully)
    Mavs need to POUND them enough to get into Heat psyche, so, they go back to South Beach questioning themselves

       #5 MAVS KNOW THEY MUST WIN!!!!! Enough said, best chance to win one more game in this series for sure!!!!!!

    Thanks again for all the Mavericks support in this series. HEAT may have more TALENT but MAVS have much more HEART, DETERMINATION, and most importantly, FORTITUDE.

    This is probably their Greatest chance ever to win a TITLE and
    they ALL know it and they are not going to WASTE IT As Carlisle has mentioned all playoffs, this MAVS team is very "opportunistic!"

    Go Mavs, this one is for "DIRK"

    GREAT WRITE-UP

    GO MAVS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

     
    mkbini
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    Posted: Jun. 9, 2011 - 1:09 AM ET #21

    Nice write up Cal, But... and this is a big But, you're basing your assumptions that people betting Miami because of chase system only. That is far from the reality. If you saw all four games so far, could you say Dallas at any game were a better team? No way. If Queen James did not succumb to Master Stern - -these series would have ended up in a sweep and nobody would have raised an eyebrow. IMO it is a very valuable situational play on Miami.
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    Nice write up Cal, But... and this is a big But, you're basing your assumptions that people betting Miami because of chase system only. That is far from the reality. If you saw all four games so far, could you say Dallas at any game were a better team? No way. If Queen James did not succumb to Master Stern - -these series would have ended up in a sweep and nobody would have raised an eyebrow. IMO it is a very valuable situational play on Miami.
     
    P4P
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    Posted: Jun. 9, 2011 - 1:18 AM ET #22

    Ugh I'm so torn on this game. Have a rather large bet still in play on Mavs to win the title at +210 and I've already hit my "hedge" of the series going over 5.5 games so I'm basically free-rolling from here on in. I know the smart move is to place a decent-sized Heat ML wager for Game 5, but I'm soooo tempted to ride it out and look to hedge after the Mavs win (hopefully).

    BOL on your play, I believe it's the right one
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    Ugh I'm so torn on this game. Have a rather large bet still in play on Mavs to win the title at +210 and I've already hit my "hedge" of the series going over 5.5 games so I'm basically free-rolling from here on in. I know the smart move is to place a decent-sized Heat ML wager for Game 5, but I'm soooo tempted to ride it out and look to hedge after the Mavs win (hopefully).

    BOL on your play, I believe it's the right one
     
    spymaq
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    Posted: Jun. 9, 2011 - 1:18 AM ET #23

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    nbafan88
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    Posted: Jun. 9, 2011 - 1:34 AM ET #24

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    PowerSleep
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    Posted: Jun. 9, 2011 - 1:36 AM ET #25

    Love the writeup, but Rashard is the X factor here and it will do LeBron and the Heat in 
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    Love the writeup, but Rashard is the X factor here and it will do LeBron and the Heat in 
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